CHI @ GB (-5)

I don’t think GB can cover the CHI WRs and the GB defense can’t create turnovers. Add in the fact that CHI can control the clock and they are following the blueprint to beat GB. CHI wins this game outright.

TB @ NYG (-7)

The Giants typically are a dud the first two games of the year and I really like what TB is doing on offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if TB won but I’m pretty sure they cover the spread.

ARZ @ NWE (-13.5)

Arizona has a very respectable defense but their offense is going to stink so badly this game it’s going to get out of hand quickly. The only reason you’re even going to want to watch this game is to see if Welker is going to destroy your fantasy team or save it.

MIN (-1.5) @ IND

Initially I thought that if the Colts were smart they would attempt to run the ball sparingly and look to air it out on the Minnesota secondary. The two problems with that are: it would leave the Vikings d-line to pin their ears back and go after the QB and the safeties on this team aren’t half bad. I don’t think our secondary is good enough to hold on to INTs they should catch but as long as they keep everyone in front of them the Vikings should win this game. Look for Peterson to have a big game (I don’t even want to think what a healthy Peterson would do to this Colt’s defense) and Ponder to play well.

NO (-2.5) @ CAR

Cam Newton looked bad and I should feel bad. I talked him up as the number 2 fantasy QB earlier this year and so of course Newton would go out and look terrible in week 1. The New Orleans defense looked equally bad so we will find out pretty quick how each team’s season will go.

KC @ BUF (-3.5)

KC looked a little less bad than BUF so I am forced to take them and the points.

BAL @ PHI (-2.5)

A really intriguing game here and I’m excited to see if Philly is as bad as they looked in week 1 and if Baltimore is as good as they looked Monday night. If Cleveland’s defense can do that to Mike Vick, I’m terrified to see how he might look against this Baltimore D. No way should Baltimore be given points but I’ll take them.

OAK (-2.5) @ MIA

Carson Palmer could decide to throw 5 INTs to give the game away but with McFadden there I don’t think he will. I’ll take the Oakland long-snapper over Mr. Lauren Tannehill.

CLE @ CIN (-6.5)

Why has Josh Cribbs never been given the opportunity to play QB for Cleveland? There is no way he could play any worse than Weeden did last week. Cinci only beat Cleveland by 3 last year at home so I’m a little worried about the spread, but then again Brandon Weeden is the starting QB for Cleveland.

HOU (-7) @ JAX

As we saw last week, Blaine Gabbert ain’t that bad. If MJD gets 25 carries the Jags might even keep this game close. There’s also a good chance that Houston is as good as advertised and destroys the Jags so I’m going to go with the latter.

DAL (-3) @ SEA

Seattle is a pretty formidable team at home and I don’t think they’ll be so conservative with Russell this week (but then again we shouldn’t be surprised given who their OC is). Dallas looked really good but take away Murray’s one big run and give the Giants even the Vikings secondary and they still might lose that game. I like Dallas but not by a whole lot.

WAS (-3) @ STL

I admit, I was wrong about RGIII. He looks like the real deal. I also admit that I thought STL was going to be an underrated team, they proved me somewhat right by almost beating Detroit on the road last week. St. Louis is a couple weeks away from getting everything together so I’ll give a slight edge to Washington.

NYJ @ PIT (-5.5)

I still don’t think the Jets are all that good, even though they manhandled a bad Buffalo team. If they win this week I’ll eat my words but I just don’t see it happening.

TEN @ SD (-6)

I think I speak for all Chris Johnson’s fantasy owners when I say “Get your crap together”. Nine yards? Really? I thought he would run hard this year but he still looks like he does way too much dancing at the line of scrimmage. I’m hoping he gets it together this week and leads Tennessee to victory but I know I’m going to be disappointed.

DET @ SF (-6.5)

If the over/under is 4 INTs for Stafford can anyone confidently take the under? If they could make Rodgers looks that bad, I’d hate to see what they do to a QB who has trouble with turnovers already. This game could be really hard to watch if you’re a Detroit fan.

DEN @ ATL (-3)

The “Matt Ryan for MVP” talk takes off after a 5 TD performance on Monday night.

Locks:

NWE (-13.5), BAL (+2.5), TB (+7)

(Picks are bold)

Last Week: 7-7

Locks 0-1

Have any questions or comments? Feel free to email me at vikingagefantasy@yahoo.com or reach me on twitter at https://twitter.com/PHowell02

JAX @ MIN (-3.5)

If you believe the “experts” this game might decide the number 1 pick in this year’s draft (Miami and the Browns might beg to differ).  Both marquee RB’s might carry the ball only a couple of times and both Sophomore QB’s are trying to prove that they were worthy of where they were drafted (10^th and 12^th overall, respectfully). Ponder looked a little better last year, Peterson will get more carries than MJD and Harvin will get more touches than Blackmon so I have a slight edge for MIN on offense. If the Viking defense plays just average they should have no problem with JAX but with that secondary anything is possible.

PICK: JAX (+3.5) (A couple Blair Walsh misses makes it closer than it should but the Vikes leave with a W)

IND @ CHI (-10)

I don’t think that Indy will be terrible this year but with Luck going against that Chicago defense on the road for his first start; it’s not going to be pretty. Cutler lights up that defense and Forte and Bush run wild.

 PICK: CHI (-10)

PHI (-9) @ CLE

The Cleveland defense was actually really good last year and I don’t see Philly putting up more than 30. Unfortunately for Cleveland fans the Browns will struggle all year to put up 21+. I see this game being surprisingly close at half before Philly pulls away at the end

 PICK: PHI (-9) (but barely)

BUF @ NYJ (-3)

Is anyone interested in watching this game? Didn’t think so.

PICK: BUF (+3)

WAS @ NO (-7)

I expect all the “RGIII is half Vick, half Peyton” talk to be put to rest after this one. There is no way Washington keeps in competitive for more than a quarter.  That atmosphere combined with an angry NO team spells bad news for RGIII’s Redskins.

PICK: NO (-7)

NWE (-5.5) @ TEN

If I knew that we would get the Chris Johnson of two years ago and that Jake Locker would play turnover free football, I would take the Titans here. I’m still not sure of CJ but I’m almost certain that Locker won’t protect the football. There’s a chance it’s close but only giving up 5.5 here has me leaning towards the Pats.

PICK: NWE (-5.5)

MIA @ HOU (-12)

If Houston can stop the MIA running game this could get ugly. I don’t see Foster having a huge game but if a healthy Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub show up it won’t make a difference.  The high line scares me but I just can’t see MIA being able to put up more than 14 points

PICK: HOU ( -12)

STL @ DET (-7.5)

I think STL is one of the more under-rated teams and DET is one of the more over-rated teams. You won’t be able to tell week 1 but midseason could be another story.

PICK: DET (-7.5)

ATL (-3) @ KC

I see this as the blowout of the week. If ATL was giving up 14 points I would still take them with no hesitation. I don’t know where Charles is at physically and the passing game is a huge question mark for KC. Matt Ryan and that passing game will be unbelievably good and the will Falcons roll.

PICK: ATL (-3)

SF @ GB (-5)

I have no idea how this game turns out. If Alex Smith can play like he did against New Orleans in the playoffs last year, I would take SF and the points but I don’t know if that was a blip or a trend. SF has unbelievably good weapons but if Smith can’t get them the ball it won’t matter. I have to think that the GB defense will be improved from last year and will be able to put pressure on Smith and force him to make mistakes

PICK: GB(-5)

CAR (-2.5) @ TB

I don’t know what the over/under is on this game but I would guess that it’s the highest this week. Both teams had terrible defenses last year and in Tampa’s case a bad offense too. Both teams have improved and could possibly contend for a playoff spot with some help. It’s my game of the week to watch (outside of the Vikes of course) and with the spread at only 2.5 it’s basically a pick ’em. Tampa’s at home so I’ll take them.

PICK: TB (+2.5)

SEA (-2.5) @ ARZ

It’s time to see if Russell Wilson is the real deal or a preseason fluke. I like Arizona’s weapons more than Seattle’s but if Kolb gets the start it won’t make a difference. I think ARZ is leaning towards Skelton so I like ARZ in an upset.

PICK: ARZ (+2.5)

PIT @ DEN (-1.5)

This is one heck of a Sunday night game; in no way would I recommend anyone bet on it because it’s so close. I still think that it will take some time for Manning to be completely on page with his WRs and the PIT defense is always going to be top 10 worthy. Part of me can’t see Manning losing his home opener for his new team but the other part of me says that logic will reign supreme.

PICK: PIT (+1.5)

CIN @ BAL (-6)

I think this game will be close from start to finish and that the Ravens will win, I just don’t know by how much. I could see it being decided by a field goal or by a late Dalton INT with the Bengals driving late down by 7. Since both games last year were decided by 7 and 8 points I guess I’ll take BAL

 PICK: BAL (-6)

SD @ OAK (-1)

Both QBs have looked awful in the preseason this year. I trust Rivers a little more than Palmer but with SD historically underachieving during the first half of the year and with Mathews out I have to go OAK.

 PICK: OAK (-1)

LOCKS

Getting the majority of picks against the spread is honestly pointless. You could pick with your eyes closed and still manage to get half right. The real challenge and skill is to be able to pick a select few that you are absolutely certain could win you some money (if you were in Vegas). We’ll start out with $100 imaginary dollars and see how far we get, pretend betting on three teams at 6-1 odds.

PRETEND BET: $20

ATL (-3)

DET (-7.5)

NO (-7)

TOTAL PAYOUT: $140

Have any questions or comments? Feel free to email me at vikingagefantasy@yahoo.com or reach me on twitter at https://twitter.com/PHowell02

UP

Doug Martin: I thought going into the season that Martin would be the starter for the majority of the year in Tampa, turns out it will be for the entire season (assuming no injuries during the regular season). He’s look good running the football as well as receiving  and has gone from a 20-25 rated RB to now near the top 15. If you had your draft before the season you probably got yourself a steal, now your going to have to  get him around the 5th round.

Alfred Morris: Morris might just be that running back that comes out of no where and ends up being a top ten RB. The 6th round draft pick out of Florida Atlantic was probably drafted in less than 1% of drafts before the season but now looks like the Redskins starting RB. Every other RB on the roster can’t seem to stay healthy and Morris has capitalized, running for 107 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries against the Colts starting in Saturday’s game yesterday. If you’ve already drafted, you should pick him up off waivers ASAP.

August 9, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) in the game against the Baltimore Ravens at the Georgia Dome. The Ravens beat the Falcons 31-17. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Ryan: I had him as my 10th best QB to start the season; he’s now in my top 5. The Falcons are looking to pass the ball a lot this year and Ryan has two really good WRs to get the ball to.  Ryan looks ready to make the next step and I suggest you wait to draft him to get real value for your QB position.

Julio Jones: Speaking of Matt Ryan’s two really good WRs, Jones has looked like a top 5 WR. Other than “Megatron” I don’t see anyone else with as much upside Jones and I wouldn’t hesitate to take Jones in the second round.

Justin Blackmon: Blaine Gabbert doesn’t look like a high school QB anymore and Blackmon looks like he is worthy of the 5th pick the Jaguars selected him with. Blackmon projected as a guy you might want to grab as your 4th or 5th WR on your fantasy team to a number 2 or 3 WR with a lot of upside.

Steven Ridley: The Pat’s pass protection has not looked good so far this preseason and with an injury to the Pats other RB Shane Vereen things are looking good for Ridley. New England isn’t going to be a running team any time soon but Ridley will still get 15-20 touches every week.

Vincent Jackson: Tampa Bay seems to know how to use Jackson a lot better than San Diego ever did. He’s no longer just a homerun hitter but a guy who’s going to go over the middle and get you 6+ catches a game.  He’s went from barely in my top 20 to now near my top ten.

DOWN

Roy Helu: He’s gone from a 5th round pick in most leagues to now near undraftable to me. He just can’t stay healthy and Morris looks like he’s won the job to me.

Matt Forte: Michael Bush was always going to steal his goal line touches but now it looks like Bush might steal more than that. With Mike Tice announcing that he wants 1000 yards out of BOTH backs, it looks like Forte is going to lose a lot of touches. He was a 1st round pick in a lot of drafts but now looks more like a 3rd rounder to me.

Maurice Jones-Drew: I thought MJD would be back sooner and I’d be willing to bet it comes back to hurt him. Holdout RBs don’t tend to do well when they come back and Jacksonville looks like they want to air it out a little more this year to see what they have in Gabbert.

Jason Witten:  This spleen thing would scare me if I had Witten on my fantasy team or was a Cowboys fan. I don’t think anyone knows when he will be back for certain so he’s no longer a top 10 TE to me.

Shonn Greene: Everything about the Jet’s offense looks awful. They may get a lot of time on TV but that won’t fill the stats sheet.

Beanie Wells: I honestly thought that Beanie would be a top 10 RB and have a career year this year. I’m already gonna go ahead and say that I was way off on that one.

Have any questions or comments? Feel free to email me at vikingagefantasy@yahoo.com or reach me on twitter at https://twitter.com/PHowell02