Nov 27, 2011; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson (13) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

I never had Steve Johnson as a serious potential free agency target for the Vikings because I never believed the Vikings would be interested in taking on a known showboater and giant knucklehead. And I’m not sure Johnson is a real #1 receiver anyway. If you are going to endure the antics, the receiver perpetrating them better be able to produce over the long-haul. When it comes to production, Vincent Jackson and Dwayne Bowe seem like surer bets, even if both men come with their own baggage.

Maybe Johnson will produce…but if he does, he will do it in Buffalo. Adam Schefter says the receiver has signed a five-year/$36 million contract with $19.5 million guaranteed to remain with the Bills. That’s much less than a team will have to pay V-Jax, making Johnson look like a relative bargain. But he’s only a bargain if he lives up to his end. I’d still rather have Jackson even if he is much more expensive.

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Dec 24, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs receiver Dwayne Bowe (82) during the game against the Oakland Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders defeated the Chiefs 16-13 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

Any Vikings free agency master plan that includes signing Dwayne Bowe will probably have to be shredded. That’s because the Kansas City Chiefs are reportedly planning to franchise tag Bowe, keeping him off the market. Before resorting to tagging Bowe, the Chiefs will try to sign him to a long-term contract. In either case Bowe will not be available.

The list of free agent wide receivers, once considered deep, could start to get shallow in a hurry. If the franchise tag report turns out to be accurate, you can cross Bowe off the list. And if the Chargers franchise tag Vincent Jackson, which remains at least a possibility, you can also remove him from contention. That would eliminate the two most attractive free agents. You can also forget about Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson who are both set to be tagged themselves if their teams don’t sign them long-term (neither would be right for the Vikings even if they were on the market).  Marques Colston and Brandon Lloyd are out there too but their current teams are expected to retain them.

The ramifications here are obvious for the Vikings. The receiver pool is getting shallow, meaning guys of lesser stature are going to rise in value. Instead of teams bidding up the price on big names like Jackson and Bowe, they’ll be bidding up people like Reggie Wayne, Steve Johnson and Mario Manningham. I know the Vikings badly need a receiver, but is it really worth spending big money for a second-tier free agent just to fill that need? You can justify overspending for a Vincent Jackson or a Dwayne Bowe because those guys are proven difference-makers, but a Robert Meachem?

I’m not saying the Vikings should bow out on finding a free agent receiver entirely. I am saying they should not overpay for a second-level guy just to fill a need. That’s how we ended up with Bernard Berrian, remember? Hopefully there are enough quality guys still left in the pool for the Vikes to score a reasonably priced #1-type. Otherwise I don’t know what to do. Suddenly Justin Blackmon doesn’t look like such a terrible option.

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Jan 1, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson (83) lines up for a play against the Oakland Raiders during the second quarter at O.co Coliseum. San Diego defeated Oakland 38-26. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

There’s almost too much speculation to keep track of these days, but that won’t stop us from trying. Here’s your Wednesday speculation round-up:

Don Banks says Mike Shanahan loves Brandon Weedon and may trade down to get him. Obviously this would take the Redskins out of any Robert Griffin III trade up scenarios. It’s possible at this point that the Browns are the only team looking to trade up. Which makes it less likely that they would need to trade up. Which increases the possibility of the Rams taking Matt Kalil at #2. Which increases the possibility of a lot of Viking fans crying on draft day.

Michael Gehlken of NBC San Diego says the Chargers are “reluctant” to use the franchise tag on Vincent Jackson. This comes as good news to those who hope Jackson lands with the Vikings. Many think Jackson should be the Vikes’ #1 free agency target but I actually like Dwayne Bowe better for his red zone talents. Speaking of Bowe…

Scott Pioli said on a radio show that the Chiefs would love to have Bowe back. And what are the words of general managers worth this time of year? Less than squat. Bottom line for the Chiefs is, they can only franchise one player. After signing Stanford Routt, it seems unlikely the tag would be used on Brandon Carr. This increases the likelihood of the tag being used on Bowe. Which is good news for Viking fans who like Brandon Carr and not so much Bowe.

Mayock Section:

It wouldn’t be a speculation round-up without a Mayock section. This isn’t really a speculation link it’s just Mayock talking about Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck. I personally can’t get enough of Mayock’s lisp. And insight.

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