Aug 9, 2009; Canton, OH, USA; Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams (left) poses with Titans mascot T-Rac at the Hall of Fame game against the Buffalo Bills at Fawcett Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

I know, screwy idea for a post. But follow me here. Either I’m on to something or I’m on something (© Dan Cole).

It’s actually rather simple if you just connect the dots. We begin in Tennessee. As we speak the Titans are fiercely pursuing Peyton Manning. Why? Because Bud Adams owns the team and he wants Peyton Manning. Bud Adams is 90 and may have no idea what’s going on, but that’s irrelevant. He still knows one thing and that’s how to fire people. So if he wants Peyton, his personnel folks will try their damnedest to land Peyton. Even if the franchise is already set at QB with veteran Matt Hasselbeck and 2011 top 10 draft pick Jake Locker.

Here’s the thing: The original plan for Tennessee, before Bud intervened, was to spend free agent dollars on upgrading the defense. Their #1 target was likely going to be Mario Williams, who is apparently leaving the Houston Texans. But if they sign Peyton they won’t have the dough to pursue Williams. With Tennessee out of the picture, another team has emerged as the clear front runner to land Williams’ services.

And that team is? The Chicago Bears. Yes, Mario Williams and Julius Peppers could both end up on the defensive line for the Bears. That sounds pretty scary, especially if your name is Christian Ponder. But the Bears’ signing of Williams could end up having a silver lining for the Vikings. Still following this? Good.

We’ve finally arrived at the point where the Vikings enter into this scenario. The Vikings as we know are in the market for a wide receiver. Vincent Jackson is the guy most coveted by fans, but he might not be a realistic option given his age and price tag. However, I see a way the Vikings could still be in on Jackson. That’s if the market for him ended up not being as vigorous as previously expected. Fewer bidders means a lower price. A lower price means the Vikings would be more likely to overlook the age issue. And what set of circumstances could lead to Jackson’s market drying up enough for the Vikings to become serious contenders?

How about this set of circumstances: The Bears drop out because they mean to spend big money on Mario Williams. That eliminates one major player. Here’s how you eliminate a second: the Redskins drop out because the league just took away a bunch of their cap space as punishment for certain hanky panky perpetrated during the so-called uncapped year in 2010.

The Redskins are the other important factor in this wildly speculative and highly unrealistic scenario. It’s possible that because of the uncapped year beatdown, which will cost the franchise $36 million in cap space over the next two years, the Redskins will now have to give up their planned pursuit of Vincent Jackson. The Redskins for their part are not ready to throw in the towel. They have indicated that they will fight the NFL’s ruling and for the time being are proceeding as though they have all the cap space previously available.

That’s fine to say, but if you’re Vincent Jackson’s agent, what are you telling him right now? The uncertainty over the Redskins’ cap status would, you would think, significantly hurt the team’s chances of landing a coveted free agent prize like Jackson, who after a couple years of being jerked around by the Chargers just wants to get paid already. You can see where this is going. Cull the Redskins and Bears from the list of teams pursuing Jackson and you only raise the Vikings’ chances of winning the bidding.

There is still however one major factor standing in the way of the Vikings ending up with Jackson: those pesky Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Once upon a time the Bucs kept the Vikings from achieving a 16-0 regular season, and now they could ruin things again by stealing Jackson. The Vikes have a decent amount of cap space but the Bucs are positively filthy with cap space. The Bucs could give V-Jax a massive contract and still have room to sign Cortland Finnegan and probably another fairly big time free agent.

Truth be told, the Bucs probably are the front runners to sign Jackson, perhaps by an insurmountably wide margin. But if you eliminate the Bears and Redskins, it’s just possible that the Vikings are now #2 in that race. A few hours ago they looked no better than #4. This isn’t a discussion about the wisdom of signing Jackson, cause you can still make a very strong case that the Vikings would be dumb to even consider it. This is a post about how, in the wacky, ever-changing world of the NFL, the whims of a possibly senile 90-year-old owner in Tennessee could, if everything falls right, lead to a team in Minnesota landing the legit #1 wide receiver it once looked like they never had a chance of attracting. Isn’t that sort of weirdly beautiful?

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Jan 1, 2012; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Laurent Robinson (81) runs with the ball and scores a touchdown after a reception during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Alan Maglaque-US PRESSWIRE

As a person who spends much of his day refreshing Rotoworld over-and-over I can safely say one thing about this year’s free agency build-up: There is almost no buzz whatsoever around the Vikings. Pick a big name free agent and look through the articles on them. Can you find a Viking mention in any of the speculation? There’s been a tiny bit of buzz about Vincent Jackson, but with so many teams in on him, the chances of the Vikings winning that bidding war look extremely remote to say the least. Ditto Cortland Finnegan. Brandon Carr generated some heat early on but to go by the experts he’s not in the mix either. Either the Vikings are playing things really close to the vest, or they’re just not planning to be big players in free agency this year.

If the Vikings do bow out on the big names, it won’t be for lack of cap space. By last count they had around $23 million to play with, and there was still a chance for them to free up more space by restructuring a couple contracts. You’d figure with that much flexibility they could at least make a play for a top wide receiver or cornerback. The problem is that, this year, there are lots of teams with lots of cap space. A lot of big numbers are going to fly around. One or two guys are going to get really inflated contracts. The kind of contracts that two years from now will have people saying, “What the heck were those guys thinking when they gave him that much money?”

The Vikings have given out their share of such contracts in the past. Fred Smoot was arguably the biggest free agency goof-up, and then there was Bernard Berrian, who comes in at least a close second. Those debacles are probably the best arguments you can make for taking the frugal approach. The question has to be asked though: Why clear the cap space if you’re not planning on using it? The answer is, the Vikings probably are planning on using it, just not on the big names.

I don’t need to inform you that the Vikings have a lot of needs. When you have a lot of needs, the prudent approach is probably not to blow all your cap space on one or two guys. Instead you’ll want to spread that money around to several lower-priced guys who can be at least slight upgrades over what you ran out there last year. I do think the Vikings will sign multiple free agents, I just don’t think the names will be ones we’re all that familiar with. And I think the players signed will all be pretty young and have some upside.

This prudent, multiple-need-filling approach may disappoint those hoping for a Vincent Jackson or a Cortland Finnegan, but I’m guessing the true wonks won’t be too upset. Wonks love it when lesser guys get targeted. “I’ve had my eye on Laurent Robinson all this time!” That’s wonk nirvana. Brodrick Bunkley? Who ever heard of him? Tom Pelissero did, and so did your weird friend who has trouble making eye contact. Rick Spielman strikes me as the wonky type, so maybe he’s got a few of these lesser names on his radar screen. It might not be a blockbuster free agency period for the Vikings, but for the Rotoworld refreshers at least, it could be a highly intriguing one.

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December 18, 2011; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson (83) reacts after missing a catch during the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

Could Vincent Jackson and Cortland Finnegan be headed to the Buccaneers as part of a Miami Heat-like package deal? Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports tweeted this earlier: “Cortland Finnegan has been texting VJax in hopes of recruiting him to CF’s next team, which is looking like Tampa.” Coming soon to ESPN, “The Decision” with Vincent Jackson.

Obviously V-Jax isn’t quite on the same level as LeBron James. Still, it’s disconcerting to see the “package deal” trend popping up in pro football. What about competitive balance? Surely the salary cap should keep that sort of thing from getting TOO out of hand. But every now and then you’re bound to have a team like Tampa Bay with a ton of cap space, and a couple big money free agents who want to team up, resulting in a very expensive two-for-one. I’m sure it doesn’t hurt that Tampa is a warm weather city. Everybody wants to go to warm weather cities.

Viking fans, whose pride is already smarting after the whole Bountygate thing, are not going to be pleased if the team’s two reported major free agent targets both end up spurning them in favor of Tampa. But maybe this can be a blessing in disguise for the Vikings. If free agents don’t want to come to Minnesota, then the Vikes will be forced to build with the draft and shrewd lower-level personnel maneuvering instead. That’s a strategy lots of people endorse anyway. Perhaps if the Vikings can get back to competitiveness, those free agents will want to come. Having a shiny new stadium won’t hurt either.

Nothing anyone can do about the weather.

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