Could the Minnesota Vikings exceed their expectations in 2020?
Last year, the Minnesota Vikings made it all the way to the divisional round of the playoffs. In that game, they were simply beaten by a better team in the San Francisco 49ers.
The Vikings have made moves this offseason that should help them get back to that point of the playoffs in 2020. They brought in some free agents, cut players who weren’t living up to their contracts, and added in 15 new faces in this year’s NFL Draft.
Minnesota’s roster for the upcoming season will be a much younger group, filled with inexperience but booming with excitement and energy. If everything pans out and goes the Vikings’ way, they could exceed expectations and not just make the playoffs but make a deep run, possibly even contend for a Super Bowl championship.
If Minnesota is able to do this and exceed expectations in 2020, what are some things that will have to happen?
Improved run defense
The Vikings run defense a season ago wasn’t what it was in years past. In 2017, Minnesota finished second in the NFL against the run and last year, their run defense fell all the way to 17th. in the league
There were plenty of reasons for the decline. The first was that Linval Joseph wasn’t healthy. He ended up having knee surgery late in the season and he just wasn’t his dominating self who routinely shut down the opposing offense’s rushing attack.
The Vikings brought back Shamar Stephen in the 2019 offseason and he was very disappointing during his first year back with the team. Stephen recorded just 21 tackles and he was easily pushed around by opposing offensive lines.
That was the problem in 2019. Instead of imposing their will, both Joseph and Stephen were getting overpowered and pushed back. This caused Minnesota’s linebackers to have blockers in their faces and it didn’t allow them to have clear paths to the opposing running backs. It resulted in the Vikings run defense allowing 111.7 yards on the ground per game in 2019.
Minnesota attempted to rectify this problem in free agency this offseason as they went out and signed the “Juggernaut”, Michael Pierce. His job has been one thing and one thing only during his pro career and that is to shut down opposing rushing attacks.
Pierce did just that a season ago with the Baltimore Ravens, as his presence helped the team’s defense finish seventh in the NFL against the run, allowing just over 100 yards per game on the ground.
An improved run defense will help the Vikings out on many levels in 2020. It will help get the defense off the field sooner and keep them fresh throughout each game. It will also force teams to throw the ball more, which could lead to an increase in sacks for both Danielle Hunter and Ifeadi Odenigbo and an increase in interceptions for the secondary.
Those sacks and interceptions could lead to more wins, which would make Minnesota have a better 2020 season than many expect.
Young cornerback group jells
The Vikings are rolling the dice with a young and inexperienced group of cornerbacks in 2020. They arguably got better by cutting Xavier Rhodes, but losing both Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander will probably hurt.
Minnesota has plenty of talent in their cornerback group, but the lack of experience could be something that holds them back in 2020.
Mike Zimmer’s defense often takes rookie corners at least a season to figure things out. If Jeff Gladney, Cameron Dantzler, and Harrison Hand all struggle to learn the defensive system this season, the Vikings could pay the price. However, if they are quick to pick it up and begin playing off of each other, this young cornerback group could be something special.
Mike Hughes is the leader of this group and while he’s already missed a ton of time in his NFL career, he has also had moments where he looks really good. The same goes for Holton Hill, who has missed time due to suspensions, but he has had some stretches of very good football.
Kris Boyd progressed nicely through the season last year and he could be ready for an expanded role in 2020. Gladney was a high energy ball hawk in college and he excels at making plays on the football when it is in the air. Dantzler shut down some of the best corners in college football, despite running that slow 40-yard dash time at this year’s NFL Scouting Combine.
The talent is clearly there with the young corners and if these guys can all play to their potential, Minnesota’s pass defense could be better than it was last season and be considered a strength for the team once again.
If that happens, the wins will roll in and the Vikings should finish their season well beyond the divisional round of the playoffs.
Jefferson is ready to go on day one
One thing that will surely need to happen if the Vikings are going to be better than people think in 2020, is Justin Jefferson’s readiness. If this kid is ready to contribute from day one, it will have a positive trickle-down effect on not just the offense, but the entire team.
Minnesota needs Jefferson to come in and be the player he was last year at LSU. A season ago, he had a historically productive campaign with 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns.
Jefferson likely won’t put up similar numbers as a rookie in 2020. But if he can at least prove to opposing defenses that he can be a consistent threat, then they’ll have to respect him and not stack the box to stop the run.
If Jefferson isn’t able to get open or make big plays early, teams will focus on shutting down the Vikings’ rushing attack. Dalvin Cook will see stacked boxes and plenty of run blitzes come his way. In addition, Adam Thielen could also see more double-teams and his production could dip.
Jefferson has to be a threat early in his career and if he is, Minnesota will benefit in the win column. If he can even post a moderate stat line of about 50 receptions for 600 yards and five touchdowns, then that should be enough to keep defenses honest and keep the double-teams away from Thielen.
Improved offensive line play
Last year, the Vikings offensive line was very erratic. During some games, they looked pretty good and were able to give Kirk Cousins plenty of time in the pocket while also opening holes for Davlin Cook in the running game.
Other times, they looked quite the opposite, as Cousins was scrambling for his life and Cook was having to avoid tacklers in the backfield.
Minnesota will have to hope that Dru Samia is an upgrade at right guard over Josh Kline and they will have to pray that either Pat Elflein is better in 2020 or hope a young player like Oli Udoh can convert to guard and be an upgrade.
There is another way this line can improve. If Ezra Cleveland can come in and earn the starting left tackle job, that could result in the Vikings moving Riley Reiff to left guard. While Reiff’s play is in decline, he could still be an asset to Minnesota on the inside and he would at least be an upgrade over Elflein.
With Cleveland at left tackle, Reiff at left guard, Garrett Bradbury at center, Samia at right guard, and Brian O’Neill manning the right tackle spot, this offensive line could be light years better than what it was a season ago.
An improved line made up of the fivesome mentioned above would give Cousins plenty of time to scan the field and it would open up holes in the running game, no matter what the talent level of the defensive line across from them is. This would help the Vikings compete against the best teams in the league and even win the tough games that they often lose.
They stay healthy
If most of the Vikings can stay healthy for all 16 games in 2020, they could definitely exceed expectations.
Minnesota overcame some injuries a season ago and they were able to stay competitive. They lost Adam Thielen for a long stretch, lost Josh Kline for a few games, Linval Joseph missed time, and Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison both missed a handful of contests too.
The Vikings managed to go 10-6 last year despite the setbacks. When Thielen went out with his injury, Stefon Diggs stepped up and Kyle Rudolph became Kirk Cousins’ favorite target in the red zone.
While they don’t have Diggs this year, Minnesota’s receiving corps is arguably deeper than it was a season ago and it has other guys who can fill the void if Thielen gets hurt once again.
The Vikings are deep at running back and if they lose Cook or Mattison for any amount of time next season, Mike Boone has shown the ability to handle the full workload. Other positions aren’t as deep for Minnesota, but if the team can avoid the injury bug it won’t matter.
The Vikings’ current roster from top to bottom is very solid. If they can stay relatively injury-free, they should be able to make a deep playoff run in 2020 and do much better overall than many expect.