The Minnesota Vikings quarterback has been performing better than his rival recently.
Could it be possible that Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is currently better than Green Bay Packers signal-caller Aaron Rodgers?
Yes, it is, but currently is the keyword for this analysis. The following will not be an attempt to convince anybody that Cousins has had a better NFL career to date than Rodgers. The longevity of Rodgers’ career and the success he has had as a whole supersedes accomplishments of the current Vikings quarterback, so far.
It should also be noted that the Packers starting signal-caller is entering the final phase of his career according to historical trends. If one believes he will follow the standard process of aging, his decline is relatively imminent and there are inklings of it now.
National punditry tends to not allow for much information that could be perceived as unfavorable to Rodgers. Yet, certain metrics are available in plain view that murmur little whispers of a performance-based drop-off.
Rodgers is still tremendously capable during game-on-the-line situations and this attribute is unlikely to ever exit his arsenal of skills. As for Cousins, he is supposed to be in his prime. So, in some ways, it is self-evident that a good quarterback in his prime is outperforming an aging veteran.
But the problem is that notable football personalities, largely, do not want to acknowledge it. So we’re about to do what they won’t and prove why Minnesota’s quarterback is currently better than the guy who has been Green Bay’s starting passer for more than a decade.
Cousins has been more clutch than Rodgers in the past two seasons
Since Aaron Rodgers became a starter for the Packers in 2008, he has been the very best quarterback in the NFL on third down in terms of passer rating (105.8). Patrick Mahomes is temporarily, at least, outpacing that, but that is only based on a significantly smaller sample size.
When the timetable of Rodgers’ third-down performance is shrunk to the past two years, his ranking among all NFL quarterbacks dips to 16th (minimum 100 pass attempts) with a 94.1 passer rating. That is a tangible drop from the top of third-down power rankings to the middle.
It is a measurable dip and the variance is inarguable. Again, a 94.1 third-down passer rating is certainly not poor. But it pales in comparison to his contemporary peers and the high standard he set for himself during the first decade of his career.
In the last two seasons, Kirk Cousins has had a 99.5 passer rating during third-down situations. This is the seventh-best in the NFL on third down in the time frame and it outranks Rodgers by nine spots.
Put simply, Cousins has been more effective and efficient on third down than the Green Bay quarterback has during the last two years.
Additionally, the recent clutch performance difference between the two men is not limited to just third-down situations.
Since 2018, Rodgers has a passer rating of 91.4 in the second half of all games when the score margin of the matchup is within 10 points. This performance ranks 14th in the league among signal-callers with a minimum of 250 pass attempts. In the same situations, Cousins has a passer rating of 99.9, which ranks eighth in the NFL.
Oddly, Rodgers’ 91.4 passer rating is more in the vicinity of guys like Josh Allen (90.5) and Jacoby Brissett (88.4) in these second half, 10-point score margin situations. And to reiterate, these are not bad passer ratings from the Packers quarterback. They are just closer to good or decent instead of great.
Cousins has connected on more deep touchdown passes recently
Deep touchdown passes are not the end-all stat parameter to define quarterback supremacy. But it is appropriate to gauge Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins with this metric since the Packers quarterback is widely known for his deep-ball acumen.
Conversely, Cousins is frequently assigned football terms that imply he throws tiny passes to achieve success. We will touch upon this later, but let’s focus on the deep passes for now.
Since 2015, Rodgers has thrown 12 touchdown passes of 40 yards or more which ranks as the 17th-most in NFL. This is a commendable amount, but it’s not elite.
During this same time period, Cousins has thrown 23 touchdowns of 40 yards or more, which ranks as the second-most in the league. For this metric, this more than commendable, this is elite.
For full disclosure, Cousins has attempted 153 more passes than Rodgers in this five-year window. So, if one believes that the Green Bay quarterback would hypothetically throw 11 more deep touchdowns if he was given 153 more opportunities, so be it.
It’s unlikely though, as that would essentially be the equivalent of 11 touchdown passes of 40 yards or more in the span of five games. While this is technically possible, it’s not realistic. In fact, it would shatter records.
Think of it another way. Since 2015, 17 percent of Cousins’ touchdown passes have been of 40 yards or more while only nine percent of the touchdowns Rodgers threw traveled at least 40 yards.
Quarterback metrics say Cousins was better than Rodgers in 2019
If naysayers remain obtuse on the topic, this will be the smoking gun.
In 2019, Kirk Cousins’ passer rating was 107.4. Of all quarterbacks that started 12 games or more, this ranked second in the NFL. As for Aaron Rodgers, his passer rating last season finished at 95.4, which ranked ninth in the league. Subtracting any opinion-bias or eye-test, Cousins was better than Rodgers in this statistical parameter.
In terms of QBR, the Vikings quarterback ended last season with a 58.4. Of all qualifying quarterbacks, this ranked 13th in the NFL while Rodgers’ 2019 QBR of 50.4 ranked 22nd.
Cousins was better in this regard, too. In a very curious coincidence, the Packers signal-caller is again bedfellows with Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett in an individual quarterback statistic as Brissett’s QBR in 2019 was 50.1.
Finally, Pro Football Focus assigns football grades to every NFL player. In 2019, Cousins’ PFF grade was 84.3 which was good for sixth-best in the business. This time, Rodgers was narrowly behind at 81.2 and ranking seventh on the list.
Three measurable metrics to prove who was the better quarterback last season.
In all three circumstances, Cousins comes out ahead of Rodgers. An argument can be made that if the reputation of the Green Bay quarterback did not precede him so prominently, this analysis would be so palpable that it would be impossible to ignore.
Rodgers is a super-sized padder of stats compared to Cousins
During his NFL career, Kirk Cousins has passed for 24,107 yards. Of this total, 2,405 of the yards (10 percent) have accrued when the score margin in the game is 17 points or greater.
Aaron Rodgers has passed for 46,946 yards in his career and 6,047 of his total yards (13 percent) have come when the score margin in the matchup is 17 points or greater.
With that, let’s enter the realm of “if you remember nothing else from this article, remember this” territory.
If the narrative is going to be (or even hinted at) that Cousins is a quarterback who inflates his statistics during garbage time, then Rodgers, too, is a culprit and even surpasses the Vikings passer in doing so.
The irrefutable proof is in the aforementioned numbers. It is either both men are padders of stats or neither man is a padder of stats. It cannot be one without the other.
Each pundit, fan, or football personality just has to decide if 10-13 percent is a worthy threshold for assigning a “garbage time” moniker.
If Cousins is a “dink and dunk” quarterback, then so is Rodgers
For clarity, “dink-and-dunking” can best be described as completing short passes rather than stretching the field aerially.
Since Kirk Cousins became the Washington Redskins full-time starting quarterback five seasons ago, 52 percent of his passes have gained 10 yards or less.
In that same time period, 54 percent of all Aaron Rodgers’ completions have gained 10 yards or less. A case can really be made that neither quarterback has a dink-and-dunk style.
For the sake of context, in a 2019 season that saw Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, 60 percent of all his completions gained nine yards or less. Is the national perception that Murray is the budding granddaddy of them all for dink-and-dunking? Probably not, right?
The dink-and-dunk adages are eerily familiar to the “padding stats” accusations. To maintain a logical, evidence-based stance when assigning the dink-and-dunk characterization, both Cousins and Rodgers are dink-and-dunk offenders or neither of them are. Once again, it cannot be true for one man and false for the other.
All statistics from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise stated.