How will the Minnesota Vikings offense be different under Gary Kubiak?
The shared-power dynamic in 2019 for the Minnesota Vikings between offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski and then-special assistant Gary Kubiak was both successful and a bit confusing. Perhaps that was the intention.
There was never a bonafide distinction as to whether we were seeing a Stefanski-fueled offense or a “Kubiak is pulling strings” offense. It’s moot now as Stefanski became the skipper for the Cleveland Browns and Kubiak now runs the Vikings offense, indisputably.
What’s important is that Minnesota’s offense was significantly better in 2019 than in 2018. Under Kubiak, the team seeks to be better offensively sans wideout Stefon Diggs and that will be a tall task.
The Vikings subtracted Diggs and Stefanski, added rookie Justin Jefferson and veteran pass-catcher Tajae Sharpe, and they are currently in a contractual tug-of-war with tailback Dalvin Cook. There are indeed hurdles to replicating the 2019 prosperity.
Although Minnesota’s 2020 offense will not fundamentally change, onlookers will notice some differences.
There will be more misdirection play-calling for Minnesota in 2020.
This is based primarily on Gary Kubiak’s experience and reputation. To date, there is not a quantifiable or refutable metric that details the number of misdirection plays that a team utilizes. Or if there is, it is not readily available.
Yet the working theory and observable history is that Kubiak enjoys his misdirection play-calls. There is no reason to believe this will cease in 2020.
“Misdirection” is a deceitful way to run a play-action offense and/or single play-action play. A handoff is faked to the running back, the offensive line pulls in a collective direction to sell the run play-call, and then the quarterback either has free reign to target a receiver while he rolls in the opposite direction–or hand the football off to another ball-carrier coming from the other direction. It is designed to be tricky and non-vanilla. The element of surprise is said to flummox opposing defenses.
Kubiak has implemented this strategy at every stop in his career which includes his time with the Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, and especially the Baltimore Ravens in 2014. This is not to say Kevin Stefanski is an antagonist to misdirection; he’s not. But Kubiak’s name and reputation are inherently linked to the philosophy and he will certifiably implement it as such in 2020.
Minnesota’s offensive line will be more competent in 2020
Just as the defensive secondary is a Mike Zimmer niche, a sturdy offensive line is a Gary Kubiak trademark.
Again, Kevin Stefanski did not coordinate a “bad” offensive line in 2019, but it was pretty average and the unit collapsed in some pivotal moments. There’s no verifiable safeguard from that happening again, but Kubiak has a documented track record of offensive line success.
First of all, Kubiak prefers a zone-blocking scheme and frequent quarterback rollouts. The inherent design of these strategies is to create space and hence reduce pressure. This is how the 2019 Vikings had very few sacks allowed, 25, which was (believe it or not) fifth-best in the NFL. Get the quarterback on the run and reduce the number of sacks. Quarterback rollouts are deodorant for a suspect offensive line.
From 1995 to 2005 with the Broncos, Kubiak was the skipper for the team’s offense. John Elway wasn’t exactly Captain Nimble. Nevertheless, throughout those 11 seasons, Denver allowed the fifth-fewest sacks in the business. Kubiak then joined Houston for eight seasons as the head coach of the Texans. With Houston, the Texans allowed the eighth-fewest sacks from 2006 to 2013.
His good fortune in offensive line cultivation is not limited to protecting the quarterback. Kubiak has been afforded some degree of control over an offense in his 22 NFL seasons (in the capacity as an offensive coordinator or head coach). In 14 of those seasons, his team has finished in the top 10 of rushing yards. That is 63 percent of his pro football life that he’s done this. It’s not a coincidence for fluke deal–it’s gospel.
Stefanski may very well develop into an offensive line aficionado, but Kubiak already is one.
The starting running back will be moderately successful in a Kubiak offense
The key here is that, to some degree, that running back will be successful no matter who it is.
Unsurprisingly, that astute offensive line performance by Gary Kubiak-led teams translates to tailback success. Who’da thunk it?
Once upon a time in the spring of 1995, Terrell Davis was not a big deal. Of course, he made an immediate impact in 1995, but he was the 18th running back selected in that year’s NFL Draft. Kubiak recognized Davis’ mettle, and like that, the sixth-rounder out of Georgia began a Hall of Fame journey.
The list goes on. Among others, several tailbacks have had 1,000-plus yard from scrimmage seasons in a Kubiak offense including Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell, Steve Slaton, Ben Tate, and Justin Forsett. And, this does not even include the stars like Davis, Clinton Portis, and Arian Foster, who are obvious.
Make no mistake, whether it’s Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Mike Boone, or Ameer Abdullah–any or all of these men would slide into a Kubiak offense like a glove. Once one can accept or realize that, the determination must be made as to which of the aforementioned four tailbacks would be the most productive. That’s your running back debate.
As for a Kevin Stefanski comparison, it is merely hypothetical or hopeful because of his limited experience. Perhaps Stefanski could build an offense around someone like Boone. But Kubiak has already proven he can mold tailback clay. It’s more of a sure thing with Kubiak.
Tight ends will be targeted, heavily
When things are cooking in a Gary Kubiak offense, tight ends are targeted profusely in the passing game. In 2019, the Vikings targeted tight ends 22.5 percent of the time between Kyle Rudolph (48), Irv Smith Jr. (47), and Tyler Conklin (10).
Certainly, that is not a tiny amount. Yet for perspective, Minnesota had a total of 105 tight end targets last season while Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce himself received 136 targets.
In the 1996 season with the Broncos, John Elway and Co. engineered 31 percent of all pass attempts to tight ends. This was Kubiak’s second year as an offensive coordinator. With Stefon Diggs’ offseason departure, the Vikings suddenly have a need and/or excuse to engage tight ends more in its offense.
The optimistic take is that rookie Justin Jefferson will cruise in and sop up all the Diggs production, but rookies rarely perform at that degree of success. It could happen, although it probably will not. In the scenario that Jefferson hauls in 500 to 800 yards, the targets and yards must go elsewhere.
Insert Smith and Rudolph.
Minnesota got an appetizer-sized portion of what the two men were capable of in 2019. With Kevin Stefanski promoted to the Dawg Pound and a tight-end friendly coach as a replacement, expect Smith and Rudolph to be showcased this year.
Minnesota will pass the football more in 2020.
There is a very, very bizarre misconception by some that “Gary Kubiak likes to run the football.” It’s false.
Kubiak runs the football to set up the passing game. It has been his modus operandi for over two decades. If you think Kubiak is a run-first offense type of guy, pull numbers or tape from the 2009 or 2010 Texans.
Even before the league went head-over-heels into a pass-happy business, Kubiak and Houston passed 58 percent of the time in both 2009 and 2010. And this was with Matt Schaub under center–who was decent but not some passing Rembrandt.
In 22 years as an NFL offensive coordinator or head coach, there have only been six seasons where Kubiak’s team ran the football more than it passed. In other words, an offense under him has passed more than it ran in 73 percent of the time.
The 2019 Vikings ran the football on 48 percent of their offensive snaps. This was the fourth-most in the league. Minnesota will pass more in 2020 because that’s what Kubiak prefers and it’s what he has always done as a rule of thumb.
He was a quarterback for God’s sake.