Which Minnesota Vikings statistics should be focused on heading into the season?
This commentary can be construed as statistics from the upcoming Minnesota Vikings season that will be unsung or potentially overlooked. It’s rather obvious, for instance, if Kirk Cousins throws 50 touchdowns, that’s a pretty important stat. So, this will be less-noticeable stuff.
The Vikings open up this season as favorites, or at least, a frontrunner, to win the NFC North division. Oddsmakers, such as the Action Network, give Minnesota the best chance to win their division this year.
The rival Green Bay Packers did little to foster the betterment of their offense this offseason. This was baffling to most fans and pundits.
The Chicago Bears are hosting a good old-fashioned quarterback battle at their training camp between incumbent Mitchell Trubisky and former Super Bowl champion Nick Foles. Neither man ranks near the top 10 of the NFL as far as signal-callers are concerned.
And then the expectations for the Detroit Lions are meager. Lions head coach Matt Patricia figures to be on the hot seat as he was hired as a defensive coach, but his team has been substandard on that side of the ball during his tenure. Detroit has been the league’s 21st-best team in terms of points-allowed since Patricia arrived in 2018. Not exactly a fearsome bunch.
Little and not-so-little indicators about the future of the Vikings will be plenteous in 2020. For example, we will know how much faith the team bestows in rookie cornerback Jeff Gladney going forward after an evaluation of his first-year campaign.
But some of these tell-tale stats are not so apparent and widespread as of now. That’s why they will be crucial to keep an eye on once the season begins.
So what are a few of the most important Minnesota statistics to monitor in 2020?
Irv Smith Jr.’s targets
The number of targets Irv Smith Jr. receives in 2020 is vitally important for two reasons. First, the quantity of times the ball is thrown at him will indicate how soon the Vikings plan to fold him into the offense as their top tight end. Second, should the number be large, it will be a tell-tale sign that his teammate Kyle Rudolph‘s role is becoming minimized.
Rudolph has been the undisputed No. 1 tight end for Minnesota for over eight years and he’s compensated very generously. If Smith starts to gobble the veteran’s snaps, receptions, and touchdowns, then the end is near for Rudolph, at least with the Vikings.
It should be noted that in no way is Rudolph’s performance waning as he helped end the season for New Orleans Saints just seven months ago by catching the game-winning touchdown.
However, it is unlikely Minnesota would carry two alpha-male tight ends for much longer. Of course, Rudolph is a fan-favorite and his departure will probably bring teary-eyed anguish.
Yet, the salary cap outlook for every NFL team right now and moving forward is potentially tumultuous thanks to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rudolph could be on the chopping block if the Vikings are forced to shave salaries in 2021.
Smith’s targets comparative to Rudolph’s in 2020 should serve as tarot cards for what future plans Minnesota has for their tight ends.
Number of tackles for Wilson and Gedeon
Whoever has more total tackles in 2020 between Eric Wilson and Ben Gedeon will, in all likelihood, tell us which man is the weakside linebacker of the future for the Vikings.
Gedeon was a fourth-round selection by Minnesota in the 2017 NFL Draft. In three seasons, he has started 22 games. He suffered a pair of concussions last year and he was effectively usurped for playing time by the aforementioned Wilson.
Wilson, who went undrafted, has played in every single game for the Vikings since the start of the 2017 season, albeit much of it on special teams. Late in 2019, it felt like Wilson was emerging as Minnesota’s full-time starting weakside linebacker, and perhaps he will be going forward.
Still, Gedeon could return this season fully healed from last year’s concussions and convince Mike Zimmer to utilize him for starting duties. Or, the Vikings could ride the continuity of Wilson, who showed playmaking prowess toward the end of the 2019 campaign.
Assessing the tackles attributed to either man in 2020 will give us a glimpse as to who is “the guy” of the future at weakside linebacker will be for Minnesota.
Snap counts for the three-technique defensive tackle position
We at The Viking Age have written ad nauseam about the semi-lackluster output of defensive tackle Shamar Stephen during the 2019 season. We do not dislike Stephen (at all), we’re just flummoxed by the man forcing only two quarterback pressures last year in 579 total snaps.
The three-technique position in a Mike Zimmer defense should probably generate a lot more pressure than that. Heck, former Vikings defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson had 25 pressures in 2018. That’s about 13 times as many as what Stephen was able to finish with last season.
Out of all eligible defensive tackles on the current roster, Stephen is compensated as though he is a starter. In 2020, he will earn about $4 million.
Others will be competing for his starting spot this year including Armon Watts, Jalyn Holmes, Hercules Mata’afa, James Lynch, and Jaleel Johnson. The situation is also muddied by nose tackle Michael Pierce’s announcement to sit out the 2020 season due to COVID-19 fears. Bodies will need to fill holes.
Whichever one of these candidates receives more snaps this year will be the odds-on favorite to head into 2021 as the starter at the three-technique spot, especially if it’s a young player who is developing.
Or, if none of their current interior defensive linemen are outwardly impressive this season, the three-technique position could jump to the top of the list of Vikings draft needs next spring.
Run vs. pass ratio as an indicator of Kubiak’s philosophy
The 2019 Vikings ran the football more than most teams in the NFL. Only the Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, and San Francisco 49ers ran more than Minnesota last season. Mike Zimmer enjoys establishing the run and playing staunch defense to effectively run out the clock. It’s a Bill Parcells-like attitude.
Semi-new Vikings offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak has a history of throwing the football more so than running it. Therefore, the run-pass split in 2020 will be extremely fascinating. Minnesota offensive coordinator John DeFilippo in 2018 even got fired for not running enough among other things.
The prognosis for the run-pass ratio will be particularly telling because Kubiak probably won’t be leaving the team in 2021 as other Vikings offensive coordinators have recently. In their defense, most of those who have departed have deservedly earned their way into a head coaching opportunity.
Overall, continuity at the offensive coordinator position will assuredly be a breath of fresh air as Minnesota never seems to achieve such longevity. At least not lately.
Kubiak’s run-pass split in 2020 will tell Vikings loyalists two things. One, how much control he has over the team’s offense as he likes to pass more than Zimmer probably urges. And two, what the offense will look like for the next few seasons.