When is the earliest the Minnesota Vikings could look to deal Kirk Cousins?
Against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, Kirk Cousins had arguably his worst single-game performance since signing with the Minnesota Vikings in 2018.
Cousins completed just 42.3 percent of his passes for 113 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions in the Vikings’ Week 2 loss to the Colts. He also ended up with a 15.9 quarterback rating, the third-lowest rating in a single matchup by a Minnesota passer in team history.
To no one’s surprise, the reactions to Cousins’ performance on Sunday have not been very positive. There are a bunch of people who are ready for the Vikings to be done with their current starting quarterback and start looking for someone new to lead the team from under center.
As much as some might have the desire for Minnesota to part ways with Cousins sooner than later, is this an actual possibility? How soon can the Vikings trade or release the quarterback without having to deal with a tremendous financial burden?
Can the Vikings trade Cousins in 2020?
The chance of the Vikings trading or releasing Kirk Cousins before the end of the current season is extremely low and even the people who want him off the team are pretty aware of this.
Minnesota just signed Cousins to a new, two-year extension earlier this offseason that includes an additional $31 million in fully guaranteed money on top of the $84 million the Vikings had already fully guaranteed to him when he joined the team in back in 2018.
If Minnesota were to cut their starting quarterback before the end of the 2020 season, it would result in the team losing $21 million in their current cap space in addition to dealing with $62 million in dead cap until the end of the 2021 season.
The Vikings currently have less than $1.5 million in cap space, so releasing Cousins this year isn’t even a legitimate possibility.
What about trading him this year? What would Minnesota’s salary cap situation look like if they were able to find someone willing to deal for Cousins before the end of the current season?
If the Vikings were somehow able to trade the veteran quarterback this year, it would free up $10 million in cap space and result in $31 million in dead cap until 2022.
While it’s a scenario that’s more likely to happen than Cousins getting released, the chance of Minnesosta trading him this season is still very low. Mostly because the Vikings would probably have a hard time finding a trade partner who is willing to take on the quarterback’s current contract.
Chance Cousins is traded in 2020?: Less than one percent
Can the Vikings trade Cousins in 2021?
The simple answer is yes. But the likely answer is no.
Unfortunately, Kirk Cousins‘ performance this season probably won’t have a ton of impact on his future in Minnesota. The Vikings expressed their longterm commitment to Cousins when they gave him his extension back in March, so they likely won’t be giving up on him with two years still remaining on his contract.
Egos would probably get in the way of Minnesota trading or releasing the veteran quarterback in 2021 as well.
Vikings general manager Rick Spielman is the one who convinced everyone that Cousins could be “the guy” under center for the franchise. Parting ways with the quarterback next year would be an admission by Spielman that he was wrong about Cousins and the Minnesota general manager is not known for owning his mistakes in a timely manner (see Matt Kalil).
The financial implications of showing Cousins the door are a little better for the Vikings in 2021 compared to the current season.
A release prior to June 1, 2021 would result in $41 million in dead cap and a loss of $10 million in cap space for Minnesota. Cutting Cousins after June 1 in 2021 would result in $76 million in dead cap until 2022 and a loss of $35 million in cap space.
So, once again, the Vikings releasing the quarterback before 2022 is extremely unlikely. But what about trading him?
If Minnesota was able to deal Cousins before June 1, 2021, they would only have to deal with $20 million in dead cap and the move would free up $11 million in cap space. A trade completed after June 1 in 2021 would create $21 million in cap space and the Vikings would have $10 million in dead cap from his contract in both 2021 and 2022.
Cousins getting traded in 2021 is certainly more likely than it is for this season. But the chance still isn’t high enough yet to believe that Minnesota would even explore a potential trade for their current quarterback.
Chance Cousins is traded in 2021?: 15 percent
Can the Vikings trade Cousins in 2022?
Of the years left on Kirk Cousins’ contract, this would appear to be the year with the best chance of him getting traded. However, Cousins would also cost a team $35 million to acquire in 2022.
How many teams are going to be interested in giving up assets to acquire an expensive quarterback who will be 34-years-old in 2022?
Especially if the Vikings are looking to move on from Cousins, why would a team trade for him instead of just waiting for him to be released in order to avoid paying his massive salary in 2022?
Whether Minnesota decided to cut or trade Cousins in 2022, both moves would free up $35 million in cap space. Both transactions would also leave the Vikings with $10 million in dead cap.
So if Minnesota is looking to part ways with Cousins in two years, they would probably look to trade him first and then release him if they are unable to find a team to make a deal with.
Once again, it’s hard to imagine any team in the NFL would be willing to give up assets to acquire a quarterback who would take up more than $30 million of their cap space.
Cousins would have more interest in the trade market in 2022 if he were able to turn things around this season and then have another productive year in 2021. But if this ends up being the case, then he would probably just get another extension from the Vikings.
Chance Cousins is traded in 2022: 20 percent (better chance of being released)