The Minnesota Vikings are heading into a crucial season. What could happen for Minnesota this year and will it be enough to return to the playoffs?
After a disappointing 2020, everything is on the line for the Minnesota Vikings in 2021. The current regime of Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman is on the hot seat. With the Kirk Cousins era falling short of expectations, the Vikings might not only need to return to the playoffs this season, but also make a deep run to save their jobs.
That creates an interesting dynamic heading into the season. Minnesota dumped roughly $45 million into their defense and spent more draft resources on building their offensive line. While there are several star players, there’s also a lack of depth that could derail the season.
With the normal risk of injury amplified by the looming threat of COVID-19, the Vikings go into this season with no margin for error.
That makes for what could be a pivotal season. If Minnesota makes a deep run, the current regime could be extended. If they don’t, it could kick off a new era of Vikings football where they look to replace their head coach, general manager, and quarterback in 2022.
Cousins will have another slow September
Kirk Cousins is one of the most polarizing players in Vikings history. When he’s at his best, he puts up numbers worthy of a dark horse MVP campaign. When he’s at his worst, it’s enough to drive Minnesota into a hole they can’t get out of.
Since coming to Minnesota in 2018, Cousins has thrown for 2,745 yards with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 11 starts during the months of September. But the Vikings have a 3-7-1 record in these games, including an 0-3 mark last season with the veteran quarterback throwing five touchdowns and six interceptions.
The key to this season is a fast start from Cousins, but signs aren’t pointing in his favor. In addition to a slow preseason, Cousins’ vaccination status is hanging over his head. By suggesting he be entombed in plexiglass, he’s become the poster child for the team’s low vaccination rate, and he has taken the brunt of the punishment from the public and his head coach.
Cousins is at his best when everything around him is going well. That’s not the case heading into this season and it could result in another slow start.
Cook will lead the NFL in rushing yards
When the Vikings entered their bye week with a 1-5 record last season, something had to change. Kirk Cousins chucked an NFL-leading 10 interceptions in the team’s first six games and the defense wasn’t living up to its reputation under Mike Zimmer.
With the offense struggling, Zimmer made the decision to lean on the running game, and Dalvin Cook was up for the challenge. In his final nine games of the 2020 season, he ran for 1,068 yards and nine touchdowns, willing Minnesota back to a .500 record but ultimately falling short of the playoffs.
Cook’s performance guarantees that he’ll be the focal point of the offense this year, but it comes with some risk. During his brilliant stretch, he averaged 28 touches per game. That average put him on pace for 400 touches before sitting out Week 17 due to his father’s death, but it could set him up for a monster season in 2021.
If we extrapolate Cook’s usage over a 17-game season, Cook would wind up with 1,989 rushing yards but also 476 touches. That’s bad news for Cook’s long-term outlook, but it’s great news for Zimmer, who is taking a “2021 or bust” approach to this season.
Thielen will lead the Vikings in touchdown receptions
Irv Smith Jr.’s season-ending injury put a giant hole in the Vikings’ offense. A tight end that can make plays after the catch would have been a great weapon to utilize in the end zone. With Smith gone, someone else has to take that role.
Adam Thielen had a strong 2020 season with 925 yards and finishing third in the league with 14 receiving touchdowns. While his volume may go down with the emergence of Justin Jefferson, Thielen could be the main red zone target and see his touchdowns rank among the league’s best in 2021.
Of course, that’s not without some caveats. Jefferson’s rookie year should convince the Vikings to throw the ball to him more. With Dalvin Cook also mixing into the passing game, Kirk Cousins should have plenty of options to throw touchdowns to. But Thielen has the rapport and it could put him on pace for one of the best seasons of his career.
Minnesota’s offensive line will hold the team back
There was a lot of celebration when the Vikings added Christian Darrisaw and Wyatt Davis to the offensive line in the 2021 draft, but it appears that neither will be in the starting lineup in Week 1. That produces a big problem that could make this offensive line weaker than it was a year ago.
Although Darrisaw will return to practice this week, he still has a ways to go before being inserted into the starting lineup. Speaking to reporters on Monday, Zimmer estimated that Darrisaw has practiced four times since being selected with the 23rd overall pick in last April’s NFL Draft. That means that Darrisaw will have to catch up before he hits the field.
That’s a problem considering who Darrisaw is replacing. Riley Reiff didn’t allow a sack in 2020 and would have been useful if the Vikings found a way to keep him around. With his departure for Cincinnati, it creates a domino effect that begins with Rashod Hill at left tackle.
Starting a career swing tackle is bad news for the Vikings, who face a gauntlet of elite pass rushers in the first month of the season. If Hill struggles against Trey Hendrickson, it doesn’t get easier the following week against J.J. Watt and Chandler Jones of the Arizona Cardinals.
The rest of the offensive line could also struggle in this scenario. Ezra Cleveland is still learning how to play guard while Garrett Bradbury has been disappointing since arriving in the 2019 NFL Draft. Oli Udoh moved to guard a month ago and while Brian O’Neill should be good, it may not matter if the rest of the line doesn’t perform.
That’s a rough scenario for the offense, which needs things to stay on schedule to perform at its best. If the offensive line continues to have the same issues, it could throw everything off, leading the Vikings to struggle this season.
Hunter will reach a career-high in sacks
There are plenty of questions regarding the Vikings’ defense. One of the biggest is the health of Danielle Hunter.
Hunter was a rising star prior to last season, becoming the youngest player in NFL history to reach 50 sacks. Just before last season, Hunter went down with a neck injury and the entire Minnesota defense fell apart.
A trade for Yannick Ngakoue didn’t help as the Vikings recorded just 23 sacks on the season. That number should improve with Hunter’s return after he turned in a dominant training camp performance. Although his long-term future and risk for injury are still up in the air, he won’t turn 27 until October.
In the prime of his career and eager to earn a new contract, this version of Hunter could be more dominant than ever.
2021 will be Barr’s last season with the Vikings
Whenever the Vikings’ coaching staff talks about Anthony Barr, it’s apparent he’s a critical part of the defense. During an interview in September of 2020, co-defensive coordinator Adam Zimmer raved about Barr’s contributions to the defense and hinted about what his presence lets them do defensively.
But the glaring number associated with Barr is $8.6 million. That’s the cap hit on Barr’s contract this season and the reason Minnesota allowed him to become a free agent in 2022.
Barr’s tenure with the Vikings has a mixed feel as he’s made four Pro Bowls but has just one sack since signing a five-year, $67.5 million extension prior to the 2019 season. He has also struggled with injuries since then, including a knee injury that has his status up in the air for the start of the season.
Minnesota needs Barr to be at his best in order to have a shot in 2021. If he’s not able to perform at that level, the defense could suffer and Barr will be playing somewhere else next season.
Minnesota will have a top-10 defense
The Vikings spent like crazy in free agency to fix their defense this offseason. In many ways, that’s a great development as several areas have been upgraded from a unit that ranked 28th in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed last season.
The return of Danielle Hunter, along with the presence of Michael Pierce and Dalvin Tomlinson, should help the defensive line get more pressure on the quarterback. Assuming Anthony Barr returns to health, he and Eric Kendricks should return to being one of the best linebacker duos in the NFL.
Even Minnesota’s secondary should be better with the addition of three free-agent cornerbacks and a safety. Mix in an improved effort from the front seven and a lot of the laser throws that came from clean pockets should be turned into turnover-worthy plays.
Everything isn’t fixed with the defense and it will be up to Mike Zimmer to get everything he can out of this group. But an influx of veterans should go a long way and help the Vikings get back to where they’ve been during the majority of Zimmer’s tenure in Minnesota.
Minnesota will miss the playoffs
In a perfect world, the Vikings will return to becoming a top 10 defense, the offense will continue to produce explosive plays, and the team will return to the playoffs. In reality, Minnesota has a lot of flaws they’ll need to correct if they want to be a playoff team.
It’s a safe bet to think that Mike Zimmer will help the defense return to form, but their biggest concern may be the offense. If Kirk Cousins gets off to a slow start or misses time, backups Kellen Mond or Sean Mannion won’t be enough to keep this team afloat.
Dalvin Cook’s usage is a major concern in the backfield and the lack of a true third receiving option could have this team feeling a lot like they did in 2018. That team rebounded for a 5-3-1 record heading into the bye week, but they slumped down the stretch and finished 8-7-1 to miss the playoffs.
If the Vikings want to avoid that fate, they’ll have to get off to a fast start. That might be hard to do with Seattle and Cleveland coming to U.S. Bank Stadium early in the year. The schedule gets tougher after the bye with a Sunday night meeting with the Dallas Cowboys and trips to Baltimore, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, and Green Bay.
The end could be what the Vikings have experienced throughout the current regime. They’re good enough to compete, but not good enough to be a Super Bowl contender. In the fourth year of the Cousins experiment, it should be what drives a change in Minnesota.