The Minnesota Vikings will try to prove that last week’s win wasn’t a fluke when they host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
For at least one week, the Minnesota Vikings are still alive.
After a build that included legal troubles for Dalvin Cook, a COVID-19 outbreak, and several injuries, the Vikings stunned the Los Angeles Chargers. But it was how they did it that made some believe they still have a chance.
At 4-5, the Vikings are in the middle of the pillow fight for the NFC’s final playoff spot but they’ll have to prove last week wasn’t a fluke when they host the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers have a stranglehold on the NFC North and a defense that is hitting its stride. At 8-2, Aaron Rodgers is trying to lead the Packers to the No. 1 seed for the second straight year but it will require stringing together a victory at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Predicting Vikings games have been a difficult task this season but we’ll give you our five bold predictions to see if Minnesota can keep their playoff dreams alive.
Jefferson will have 15 or more targets
A surprising development in Sunday’s win over the Chargers was the push to get Justin Jefferson involved. The star receiver commanded 11 targets last week and low and behold, he turned them into nine catches for 145 yards and a key grab on the final drive of the game.
Getting the ball to Jefferson shouldn’t be surprising but with the way the Vikings operate, it was almost a shock to see them do it aggressively. That’s why they need to do it again against the Packers.
Jefferson will miss out on facing Jaire Alexander, who remains on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, but Rasul Douglas and Chandon Sullivan have stepped up in his place. Sullivan is allowing a 56.4 passer rating when targeted and Douglas checks in at 62.6 since Alexander was injured on Oct. 3.
Eric Stokes has also performed well as a rookie but they’re still going up against an elite talent like Jefferson. The best defense for the Vikings is their offense and by chucking the ball to Jefferson, they can put pressure on the Packers to score some points.
Cousins will be pressured on over 45 percent of his dropbacks
While Cousins had a solid game against the Chargers, it wasn’t because of his offensive line. The Vikings struggled to give Cousins protection last Sunday, allowing Cousins to be pressured on 45 percent of his dropbacks. That was the sixth-highest clip of any passer in Week 10 according to Pro Football Focus and a damning stat considering how well the Packers’ defensive line is playing.
Green Bay had Russell Wilson under siege last Sunday as the Seahawks quarterback was pressured on 45.8 percent of his throws. While that number is impressive, it’s even crazier considering the Packers are only blitzing on 19.9 percent of their plays, the seventh-lowest clip in the NFL.
This means Green Bay’s front four is getting it done and it’s a bad sign for the Vikings’ offensive line. Garrett Bradbury has been working with the first team after being activated off the Reserve/COVID-19 list, but it feels like subtraction by addition.
There’s a possibility that Mason Cole could replace Oli Udoh at right guard but Cole still allowed three pressures and had the second-lowest pass-blocking grade on the team last week. With Ezra Cleveland being average, the Vikings’ interior should be ripe for the picking even if Rashad Gary is unable to play due to an elbow injury.
This will test Cousins to get the ball downfield but it could also lead to more checkdowns to Tyler Conklin and C.J. Ham.
Cook will run for over 150 yards
The Packers may be selling ownership stock this week but their majority owner may reside in the Vikings backfield.
Dalvin Cook destroyed the Packers last season, running for 213 yards and scoring six total touchdowns in the two meetings. With Kenny Clark banged up and Gary nursing an elbow injury, running the ball might be the best way for the Vikings to move the ball.
Of course, this represents a problem. If Cook gashes the Packers again, there’s a chance that Zimmer will fall in love with the run and forget to target his playmakers in the passing game. But any success Cook has could draw the defense in and open up chances for big plays down the field.
Viking fans will probably roll their eyes at the notion of running the ball but it could be the key to beating the Packers. If Cook can get going, there’s a good chance the Vikings can put some points on the board.
Dillon will also run for over 150 yards
Zimmer may not want to hear it but the Vikings run defense is a major problem. Minnesota currently ranks third in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry and fifth with 130.6 rushing yards per game.
While the Packers have many ways to hurt a defense, the biggest concern for the Vikings may be A.J. Dillon. The hefty Packers running back will assume the backfield after Aaron Jones injured his knee against Seattle and the Vikings’ track record could signal a big day on the ground.
Although the Packers could mix in a change-of-pace back, Dillon has shown enough to be a workhorse back on Sunday. That could lead to a huge workload and massive problems stopping the run.
Green Bay will win an ugly game
Looking at the Packers and Vikings, there are plenty of similarities. Both teams have unvaccinated quarterbacks that created headlines and both love to run the ball. While both sides have had their injuries, they’ve been solid on defense while their offense comes and goes.
But despite all the similarities, the key difference is that the Packers have found a way to win games.
While Dalvin Cook fumbled* in Cincinnati, the Packers were able to claw out an overtime victory. While Greg Joseph missed a field goal against the Cardinals, A.J. Green’s brain froze to give the Packers another win.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have had their moments where games that should be blowouts turn into nail-biters. This is a game the Vikings could win and at U.S. Bank Stadium, it’s almost a game they should win. But it’s also possible that last week’s victory was nothing but a mirage.
If the Vikings revert to their old ways, it could give the Packers another victory where Minnesota has faltered.
(*Cook didn’t fumble, but it was ruled that way on a review.)
Prediction: Packers win 17-13