Can the Minnesota Vikings find the energy to take down the Green Bay Packers under the lights on Sunday night?
Everything was on the line for the Minnesota Vikings last week. They were in a position to control their own destiny by winning their last three games, and with a playoff spot on the line, they needed a victory against the Los Angeles Rams.
But what took place wasn’t the inspired effort you would expect. Instead, the Vikings looked lethargic and found themselves in a 14-point hole despite three interceptions from Matthew Stafford. The Vikings rallied but ultimately lost, putting their playoff chances on life support.
At 7-8, the Vikings are now behind the Philadelphia Eagles for the final playoff spot in the NFC. While they’ll need help to get in, they also need to win their final two games, which begins with a trip to Lambeau Field.
The Green Bay Packers are in a must-win situation as well, but unlike the Vikings, they’re vying for the top seed in the playoffs. A team that has embraced their identity of winning close games, the Packers have rattled off four wins in a row and will look to put the final nail in Minnesota’s coffin.
It’s hard to tell what to expect from the Vikings, but here are five bold predictions to see if they can keep their playoff hopes alive.
Mannion will still be looking for his first career touchdown pass
The Vikings’ game plan was altered drastically when Kirk Cousins tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday. With Cousins now forced to sit out Sunday’s matchup in Green Bay, Minnesota will turn to backup Sean Mannion, who has yet to throw a touchdown in seven NFL seasons.
Perhaps the bright lights will bring out another gear in Mannion. But with the way the Packers defense has played, it’s unlikely the Minnesota backup signal-caller will find the elusive score on Sunday night.
Especially since he’ll be going up against a Green Bay secondary that has improved since their last meeting. Rasul Douglas has an interception in each of his last three games at Lambeau Field. Eric Stokes’s Pro Football Focus grade is 12th among qualifying corners. Even Chandon Sullivan has allowed a 75.3 passer rating when targeted in the slot.
The Vikings will catch a break as Jaire Alexander will need a conditioning period after being activated from injured reserve, but the Packers don’t need him to win this game. With an improved secondary, Green Bay should be able to take advantage of its opportunities.
This game will be all about the rushing attack
Sunday’s forecast indicates that this will be a standard NFC North battle. With temperatures predicted to dip below zero, the running game could be crucial and become the Vikings’ best chance to come away with a victory.
Dalvin Cook is expected to return after missing last week’s game with COVID-19 and it comes in time to dominate an opponent he’s had success against. In his last four games against the Packers, Cook has averaged 113 yards per game and ran for seven touchdowns, adding another through the air.
Against a Green Bay defense that allowed 219 rushing yards and 8.7 yards per carry in their win over the Cleveland Browns, the Vikings should be able to establish the run. The bigger question is whether their defense can stop it.
The Vikings have had their own issues against the run, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. That number is tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the third-highest clip in the NFL, and it showed last week when they allowed 131 yards to Sony Michel.
Both teams are going to try to shorten this game, but the Vikings need Cook to do his job in order to have a chance to win.
Dozier will allow at least five pressures
The Vikings’ woes along the offensive line have grown over the past couple of weeks. Mason Cole landed on injured reserve with an elbow injury, paving the way for Oli Udoh to re-join the starting lineup. But Udoh has been forced to the sideline after being placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list this week and his status for Sunday night is up in the air.
Losing the NFL’s penalty leader sounds like addition by subtraction, but it’s not an upgrade when the Vikings might have to turn to Dakota Dozier.
The NFL’s champion of pressures allowed by guards in 2019, Dozier blasts a big hole in the Vikings offensive line. Even worse, he’ll go up against Kenny Clark, who tallied five pressures in their Week 11 meeting.
With Garrett Bradbury reverting to his old form, the Vikings are too small to stop the Packers’ interior pass rush. That could lead to another obstacle to overcome on Sunday night and a more run-oriented approach by Klint Kubiak’s offense.
Adams will dominate in the slot
We mentioned that this should be a ground-and-pound game. But the Packers should also be able to throw the ball thanks to the dominance of Davante Adams.
Teams are throwing everything they can to stop Adams this season, including double-teaming the All-Pro receiver at the goal line. While the Packers have other sufficient targets, Adams is the center point of the passing game, which spells big trouble for the Vikings.
The Vikings have improved over the past two weeks after the release of Bashaud Breeland. Cameron Dantzler has played well over that stretch and Patrick Peterson is a solid veteran in a secondary that doesn’t have many. But where the Packers could take advantage is in the slot.
Mackenzie Alexander’s homecoming was supposed to solidify the Vikings’ coverage in the slot but has been a complete bust. He’s allowing 1.45 yards per coverage snap and allowing a 117.6 passer rating when targeted in the slot this season. Both numbers are eighth among qualifying cornerbacks this season.
These numbers are troubling with Adams’s performance in the slot. Adams ranks third behind Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel with 3.23 yards per route run in the slot this season. With a majority of his snaps coming in the slot, it seems like the perfect place for the Packers to attack.
Green Bay will kill Minnesota’s playoff hopes
When previewing this week’s game, you have to go back to last week. The Vikings were in the same must-win situation, playing in front of their home crowd. If they won, their path to the playoffs could have been much easier, but instead, they came out with a lethargic effort.
Maybe it was the absence of Dalvin Cook or the Christmas hangover that Anthony Barr described, but this doesn’t look like a team that is about to come together for a last-minute playoff run.
The Vikings are a flawed operation and it starts from the top. If Mike Zimmer, who dove into the huddle before the Rams game to try to fire up his team, can’t get these guys going, what’s to say they’ll be fired up for a cold game at Lambeau Field?
That’s before realizing that they don’t have one of their top receiving weapons, Kirk Cousins isn’t available, Dakota Dozier is possibly starting at right guard, and the defense is one of the worst in the NFL.
This is a team that belongs on the outside of the playoffs and it’s one that is starting to play like it. Although they can blame the fans or each other for their shortcomings, the truth is that this just isn’t a good team. Playing against a Packers team that is motivated for another Super Bowl run, Lambeau Field could be the place where the Vikings are put out of their misery.
Prediction: Packers win 23-7