Recent quarterback trades can tell us a lot about what Kirk Cousins might be worth for the Minnesota Vikings this offseason.
If the Minnesota Vikings decide to look into trading their starting quarterback this offseason, they should rest easy knowing that the market will be robust. Several playoff-ready teams are a quarterback away from being dangerous, which is exactly what led the Vikings to sign Cousins in free agency back in 2018.
At a glance, the Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Washington Football Team, and Denver Broncos have the pieces in place to compete but do not have stability at quarterback. With Ben Roethlisberger likely hanging it up after this season, they are the team to watch closely in regards to Kirk Cousins.
You cannot place a value on good quarterback play. Contenders – if they want to be taken seriously – will do everything they can to get the right guy to lead them to a playoff run. Minnesota did the same thing just four years ago, and while the results haven’t been what they expected, Cousins has put up solid numbers.
The Vikings would be smart to move Kirk this offseason to clear cap space as they work to revamp the defense. They are quite a ways away from being in the conversation as a contender in the NFC, so they need to get ahead of the rebuild as quickly as possible.
Last offseason showed us just how valuable starting quarterbacks are in the NFL. There were three massive trades that should be used to shape a deal for Cousins in 2022.
Trade No. 1
Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were desperate for a quarterback after Philip Rivers retired following the 2020 season. That desperation led them to trade a 2022 first-round pick and a 2021 third-round pick in exchange for Carson Wentz after he lost his job to Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.
Early in his career, Wentz was an exciting gunslinger that played an instrumental role in winning his team a Super Bowl despite missing the playoffs with an injury. Even after a bad season in 2020, the Colts gave up a conditional draft pick that wound up being a first-rounder in the upcoming draft.
Wentz did not play up to that value this season, nor did it do the Colts any favors. They took a step back, missed the playoffs, and got their worst performance out of Wentz in a must-win game.
With a playoff berth on the line, Wentz lost a very winnable game at the hands of the league-worst Jacksonville Jaguars and cost his team a spot in the playoffs. If that sounds familiar, welcome to the Kirk Cousins parade.
Cousins, while not always his fault, has failed to get the Vikings beyond the Divisional Round in the playoffs and has only earned one trip in four seasons. He has lost so many should-be wins at the hands of backup quarterbacks and that should be enough to make fans worry.
If the Eagles could get two high draft picks for a struggling Wentz, the Vikings could get a very nice return for Kirk.
Trade No. 2
Sam Darnold traded to the Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers were hoping to make a splash when they acquired Sam Darnold last April, but that has since backfired. Darnold could not even hang on to his starting job when he was healthy and the Panthers were left with a revolving door at quarterback.
Carolina was able to get Darnold from the Jets as New York prepared for Zach Wilson in the draft, but that did not stop the Panthers from paying a huge sum to go get their guy. They sent the Jets a second, fourth, and sixth-round pick in exchange for Darnold.
There was a bit of an upside incentive with Darnold, given that he was a former top-3 pick with the traits to be a high-level starter in the NFL. However, it has been pretty clear that he is not that player, nor will he ever reach that level.
Carolina had no reason to give up as many picks as they did, but once again, that just shows how teams value the quarterback position. If you take this as proof that the Vikings should not trade Cousins because teams value good quarterbacks, let me assure you that I understand.
Trading Kirk would set this team back for now, but the value they could receive would be worth the risk. He is immensely better than Sam Darnold, a quarterback that fetched three draft picks.
Trade No. 3
Matthew Stafford shipped to the Los Angeles Rams
The closest value at quarterback that you find to Kirk Cousins comes from Matthew Stafford. Stafford and Cousins have been very similar in terms of overall success and stats throughout their careers, especially as NFC North rivals from Stafford’s time with the Lions.
I’ll be the first to say that Stafford has one of the most impressive arms I have ever seen in the NFL, but that does not mean he has not had his flaws. There has been a lot left on the table from Stafford over his career and his lack of playoff success is worth noting.
The Rams felt they could make a Super Bowl run with Stafford under center – which is certainly plausible right now as they sit in the NFC’s fourth seed. If he wins them a championship, he will be worth every asset that the Rams gave up.
Los Angeles sent two first-round picks, a third-round pick, and a starting quarterback (Jared Goff) to the Lions for Stafford. That is a lot of assets and a starting quarterback for a guy who is pretty close to Cousins in terms of value right now.
You can debate the value of Goff and whether or not the other first-round pick was thrown in so the Lions would take on his contract, but he still played pretty well down the stretch. In his final five games of 2021, Goff passed for 1,136 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just two interceptions while leading his team to a 3-2 record.
Consider what the Lions were up until that point and that was a phenomenal showing from Goff. Getting a quarterback and picks for Stafford should be what the Vikings hope to get out of Cousins.
Where does that leave the Vikings?
Kirk Cousins is certainly a good enough quarterback to trust for another season, but the Vikings are staring down a tight salary cap already. If the opportunity presents itself, they need to trade Kirk for a package that will likely feature a first-round pick.
While a first-round pick would be enticing, they should also push for a bit more in any deal that comes their way. Minnesota could get another starting-level player, or more draft picks if they find the right team for Cousins.
Teams like the Broncos could offer up a quarterback, or additional draft picks in order to secure their quarterback that can push the team over the top. For Denver, a package of Drew Lock, a first-round pick, and Jerry Jeudy would be very, very exciting.
Miami could offer up their first-round pick and Tua Tagovailoa if they believe Cousins could get them over the hump while the roster is still intact. The Vikings could also look at the Steelers, Panthers, or Browns to take Cousins for a plethora of draft picks.
Recent history plays into Minnesota’s favor as they look to clear some cap space and build for the future. A Kirk Cousins trade would be very beneficial if they go that route in 2022.