The Minnesota Vikings are beginning a new era in the 2022 season with Kevin O’Connell, but will it get more out of the team?
The end of the Mike Zimmer era was ugly for the Minnesota Vikings. After missing the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, fans became annoyed, players were exhausted and, most importantly, the Wilfs had enough.
The result is a new regime is running the Vikings. Zimmer was fired and replaced with Kevin O’Connell. General Manager Rick Spielman was replaced by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. Everything pointed to major changes across the organization until they kept the roster intact.
This makes the 2022 Vikings an interesting team. O’Connell could come in, change the culture turn the Vikings into legitimate contenders. Minnesota could also stumble, miss the playoffs again and prove that Zimmer wasn’t the problem.
What’s more interesting is that this will play out under the backdrop of a wide-open NFC. If the Vikings can even earn a couple more wins, they could be in contention. But there are a lot of things that need to fall in their favor.
In this article, we’ll make 10 bold predictions for the 2022 Vikings and see if they can do what they couldn’t in the final years of the Zimmer era.
Kirk Cousins will throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns
Kirk Cousins stands to be one of the main beneficiaries of the Vikings’ new regime. Kevin O’Connell served as his quarterbacks coach during his final year with the Washington Commanders and that should give him a better relationship than the one he had with Mike Zimmer.
Some believe that if O’Connell can get Cousins to play with “a quiet mind,” it will lead to another level of statistical prowess. The reality is that less could be more in O’Connell’s new system.
Since arriving in Minnesota prior to the 2018 season, Cousins has thrown for at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in three of four seasons. In all three of those seasons, the Vikings have missed the playoffs. In the one season, he didn’t hit those milestones, he posted the highest quarterback rating (107.4) of his career and led the Vikings to the playoffs.
O’Connell isn’t going to demand more carries in order to suppress Cousins, but if O’Connell can find a way for Cousins to become more efficient, the Vikings’ passing attack should be better even if Cousins doesn’t put up monster numbers.
K.J. Osborn will post his first 1,000-yard season
At this time last year, K.J. Osborn appeared to be on the verge of getting cut. Coming into this season, he’s poised for a breakout season.
Osborn’s rookie season was a disaster as he was used primarily as a punt returner, but he rebounded last year to post 655 yards and seven touchdowns. A lot of the focus will be on Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but Osborn has just as much to gain in the Vikings’ new offense.
Many people believe that Jefferson will be used in “The Cooper Kupp Role” which helped the Los Angeles Rams receiver become the NFL’s first triple crown winner since 2005. But using him in that role would suppress some of his talents downfield which makes Osborn a perfect candidate for that role.
With his ability to get open in short spaces, Osborn could rack up catches and help move the change while Jefferson does his damage downfield. Osborn’s ability as a blocker could also help the running game, which puts him in a prime position to contribute.
Osborn won’t be flirting with a triple crown as Kupp did, but if he can build off his success from a year ago, 1,000 yards isn’t out of the question.
Dalvin Cook will lead the league in runs of 20 yards or more
In the Vikings’ old offense, Dalvin Cook was Plan A, B, and C. Over the past two seasons, only Derrick Henry (900) had more carries than Cook (811). While it also helped Cook rank second in rushing yards (3,851) during that time, his effectiveness wore off as the season went along.
That shouldn’t be a problem in O’Connell’s offense. During his two seasons with the Rams, four different running backs (Darnell Henderson, Cam Akers, Sony Michel, Malcolm Brown) logged at least 100 carries. By comparison, only Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison reached the 100-carry mark with the Vikings. The next closest running back was Ameer Abdullah with 15.
Much like Cousins, Cook could benefit from a “less is more” philosophy. With the possible emergence of Kene Nwangwu and the addition of Ty Chandler, the Vikings have a stable of running backs who could keep Cook fresh throughout the season.
If Cook is fresh, he becomes more explosive. If he becomes more explosive, we could see more long runs in 2022.
Irv Smith Jr. will have under 600 yards receiving
One of the biggest disappointments from last season was Irv Smith Jr’s knee injury. After tearing his meniscus in the final preseason game, Smith spent the entire year on the sidelines and looks ready to contribute this season. But fans who are expecting a big season from Smith may be disappointed.
According to Sharp’s Football Stats, the Rams used 11 personnel an NFL-high 86 percent of the time. Although the Vikings have different personnel that should feature Smith and fullback C.J. Ham, neither seems like they will be a major focal point of the offense.
That doesn’t mean that Smith won’t have a role. Tyler Higbee was third on the Rams with 105 receptions over the first two seasons but didn’t crack over 600 yards in either year under O’Connell. Higbee logged 734 receiving yards in 2019, however, but that could also be a byproduct of Jared Goff’s willingness to check down.
Smith is also coming into the season battling a broken thumb that required surgery, giving him an uphill battle to live up to his expectations.
Justin Jefferson will lead the league in receiving yards
Justin Jefferson will have a major role in the Vikings’ new offense, but it isn’t like he’s been ignored in his first two seasons. Jefferson ranks seventh with 292 targets since entering the league in 2020 and has the most receiving yards of any player within the first two years of his career in NFL history.
Still, there were times when Jefferson was misused due to the conservative nature of Zimmer’s offense. Part of that could be on the quarterback, but those things shouldn’t happen under O’Connell.
Jefferson only ranks behind Davante Adams in yards per route run over the past two seasons and O’Connell would be unwise not to utilize his prowess downfield. Many have pegged Jefferson to be in “The Cooper Kupp Role,” but that transition might not translate into a jump in his receptions or touchdowns.
With Adam Thielen and his 24 touchdowns over the past two seasons on the roster, Jefferson may have to settle for one of the three triple crown categories. If the Vikings win more games because of it, nobody will care.
Patrick Jones II will have more sacks than Za’Darius Smith
The 2021 draft class has been a disaster and in no place has that been more evident than in the third round. Out of the four picks the Vikings had in that round, Patrick Jones II is the lone survivor and could be poised to show why this season.
Jones excelled as a pass-rusher in college, racking up 17.5 sacks in his final two seasons at Pittsburgh. While he didn’t see the field much as a rookie, he showed some of his potential this preseason, logging six pressures on 42 pass rushing snaps according to Pro Football Focus.
Jones won’t have a true breakout playing behind Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith, but he could take off if one of them goes down with an injury.
If we’re taking bets, there’s a good chance that Smith is the one who winds up on the injured list. He missed 16 games last season due to a herniated disc in his back and there’s a possibility that Smith could aggravate that injury at some point this season.
It’s why the Baltimore Ravens agreed to sign Smith earlier this offseason but backed out at the 11th hour. If Smith can’t stay healthy, Jones has a chance to make a name for himself this season.
Brian Asamoah will be Minnesota’s most impactful rookie
With Kevin O’Connell in charge, many thought that they would lean into their offense during the draft. Instead, the Vikings went with a mostly defensive approach, trading down to take Lewis Cine with the 32nd overall pick as opposed to taking Jamison Williams at No. 12.
The defensive theme continued into the third round when they selected Oklahoma linebacker Brian Asamoah with the No. 66 overall pick. Asamoah doesn’t have the size of a traditional NFL linebacker but he brings enough to the table to make him the Vikings’ most impactful rookie this season.
Asamoah collected a career-high 80 tackles during his junior season with the Sooners and showed a knack for making big plays behind the line of scrimmage. Although he didn’t have a tackle for loss this preseason, he showed the type of player he could be, flying around the field and ranking eighth among linebackers in PFF’s linebacker grades.
Asamoah has some work to do after grading 173rd out of 215 linebackers this preseason but that’s not what the Vikings drafted him for. If he can come in, create some chaos and give the Vikings another way to get to the quarterback, it should open things up for a dynamic pass rush.
Patrick Peterson will be replaced in the starting lineup
If there’s a big unknown with the Vikings, it’s that they don’t know what they have in the secondary. Patrick Peterson is a solid veteran that should be in Canton someday, but he’s approaching the twilight of his career. At 32-years-old, it wouldn’t be surprising if he dropped off, leading the way for Booth to take over.
Booth was considered by many to be a first-round prospect in this year’s draft but fell to the 41st overall pick due to concerns about his injury history. He later admitted he hasn’t been healthy since high school and has been dealing with an ankle injury throughout training camp. But when Booth is on the field, he is very good.
Booth ranked 45th in PFF’s coverage grades last season and was a cornerstone for the Clemson defense. Meanwhile, Peterson ranked 77th out of 137 qualifying cornerbacks last season.
Peterson claimed earlier this offseason that the reason for his low numbers was his inability to get into a rhythm with teams targeting elsewhere. If teams pick on Peterson, Booth could be the one to get the chance to step in.
The Vikings will lose their first two games
The Vikings may be a better team in 2022, but it’s going to require some patience. Kevin O’Connell was wise to hold his starters out of preseason games to reduce the risk of injury but it may lead them to a slow start to begin the season.
Minnesota will open the season with a home game against the Green Bay Packers. You could argue that the Vikings are getting the Packers at the right time as they will be adjusting to life without Davante Adams. But this is still a good team that may revolve around its running game and defense to stay afloat.
The Vikings will then travel to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2. Vikings fans may be scarred from a certain NFC Championship Game, but the Eagles might be just as scary this time around. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith create a strong pass-catching duo to test the secondary and the matchup between Jordan Davis and Garrett Bradbury could be a massacre in the trenches.
With Cousins being the ultimate creature of comfort, a transitional phase and an 0-2 start is a real possibility. But it doesn’t mean the Vikings will be a bad team and they’ll have a chance to rebound as the season goes along.
The Vikings will return to the playoffs
A lot has been made about the new culture that Kevin O’Connell has brought from Los Angeles and many of those changes should have a positive effect on the Vikings.
The Vikings should be able to put their players in a position to succeed next year. By using the pass early in games, they can use the running game as a fourth-quarter hammer to put teams away. Even the changes on defense should be a more creative approach after eight years of Mike Zimmer’s Double-A gap defense.
Even if the Vikings get off to a slow start, they have enough winnable games to keep them in contention for a playoff spot. The Vikings have enough talent to win these games and it should put them on the positive side of 7-10 wins.
The division still belongs to the Packers but the Vikings should do enough to earn a wild card spot.