The Minnesota Vikings have a litmus test when they travel to face the Buffalo Bills but will Josh Allen’s potential absence make a difference?
The Minnesota Vikings will be challenged on Sunday when they travel to take on the Buffalo Bills. While going to Orchard Park isn’t on any team’s wish list this season, the Vikings may be visiting at the right time as Josh Allen deals with an elbow injury.
Allen was injured in the final drive of last week’s loss to the New York Jets and reports say that he is dealing with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament. Baseball fans will tell you that this is the injury that leads to Tommy John Surgery and could be an issue moving forward – even if he threw a 70-yard pass on the final play of the game.
The debate on Allen rages on both sides. For Buffalo, they need to decide if playing Allen against a non-conference opponent is worth the risk. For Vikings fans, they’re trying to figure out if they want Allen playing to legitimize a potential victory or if they just want to get out of Buffalo with a win.
The Minnesota Vikings are probably thinking the latter. Even if Buffalo is without their starting quarterback, the Bills possess an elite roster that can get a victory. Allen’s injury leaves a lot up in the air, but here are five bold predictions for when the Vikings take on the Bills.
Dalvin Cook will have a season-high in rushing yards
When the Vikings turn on the tape, they’ll see a few weaknesses in the Buffalo defense. Von Miller and Gregory Rousseau are big concerns in pass protection and A.J. Epenesa and Ed Oliver bring a different challenge to an interior offensive line that allowed 13 pressures against the Commanders last week.
The best way to neutralize Buffalo’s defense is by running the ball, which is something that should play into the hands of the Vikings.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Vikings rank fourth in run-blocking grade and no starter along the offensive line has a run-blocking grade lower than 70. By comparison, the Vikings rank 24th in pass-blocking grade and have allowed Kirk Cousins to be pressured on 35.3 percent of his dropbacks (13th among qualifying quarterbacks).
This should play into the Vikings that is facing a Buffalo defense that held five of its first six opponents under 100 yards rushing but allowed 208 rushing yards to the Green Bay Packers in Week 8 and 174 yards on the ground against the Jets last week.
The weather forecast also calls for a chance of snow on Sunday, which could mean that Dalvin Cook and the rest of the Vikings backfield could be featured prominently against the Bills.
Stefon Diggs will have 125 yards and a touchdown
One of the biggest storylines coming into Sunday’s game will be Stefon Diggs’s opportunity to haunt his former team. After becoming a local hero for catching the Minneapolis Miracle pass from Case Keenum, Diggs became disgruntled and forced a trade to Buffalo in the spring of 2020.
Some of the bitterness since the trade has subsided because the Vikings acquired Justin Jefferson as part of the trade and Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer – two of the main causes of Diggs’s issues – have since been fired. But if seeing purple on the field isn’t enough to spark a monster game, perhaps his matchup will.
Cameron Dantzler is unlikely to play due to an ankle injury suffered in last week’s win over Washington and although Akayleb Evans made some key plays, he’s still a fourth-round rookie. The Vikings could have Patrick Peterson shadow Diggs, but a more likely result is for the Vikings to play back in shell coverage and pick their spots.
That should give Diggs an opportunity to get his stats but also plays into the hands of the Vikings’ defense.
The Vikings will force at least three turnovers
One of the biggest matchups coming into Sunday’s game will be the Bills’ pass offense against the Vikings’ defense. Buffalo ranks third in the NFL with 7.1 net yards per attempt while Minnesota ranks sixth with 6.8 yards allowed per net attempt.
But even with a disgruntled wide receiver, the Vikings should be able to take advantage of the Bills’ all-or-nothing tendency through the air.
Allen leads the NFL in PFF’s Big Time Throws metric, but he also ranks fifth in turnover-worthy plays (4.8%). Even if Allen plays, Keenum has had one turnover-worthy play on seven attempts this season and had a 3.5 percent TWP rate during his last full season as a starter with the Denver Broncos in 2018.
We know that Ed Donatell trusts his defense to play back and tighten up in the red zone, but the Bills rank fifth in the NFL with 15 turnovers. If they play their game, there should be opportunities to flip the game in their favor.
The Vikings and Bills will hit the under
According to the FanDuel Sportsbook, Sunday’s game is slated with an over/under of 43.5 points. While both teams have had their moments offensively, there’s a good chance that the Bills and Vikings could have a defensive battle in Orchard Park.
The obvious reason for this is the status of Allen. As we mentioned in the introduction, Sunday’s game could be a good opportunity to rest him for the second half of the season, which could allow Keenum to step in and try to lead the Bills to victory.
The other reason is that Buffalo’s defense has been the best in the NFL so far this season. No opponent has scored more than 21 points against the Bills this season and with the Vikings’ tendency to have long stretches of ineptitude on offense, it’s possible the Bills could force the Vikings to win a physical, drag-it-out kind of game.
If Keenum plays, it brings another reason to bring the total down, meaning the Minnesota Vikings will be in for a fight in Buffalo.
The Bills will end the Vikings’ winning streak
Vikings fans want to see their team win on Sunday just to prove they belong in the upper echelon of NFC contenders, but Buffalo is an elite team with several factors in its favor.
According to Joe Marino of Locked On Bills, Buffalo enters Sunday’s game riding a six-game home winning streak – its longest streak since 1998. Sean McDermott is 22-11 after a loss since arriving in Buffalo in 2017 and the Bills are 12-4 after a loss since 2019. The only team to have a better record in those time frames is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Mix in the fact the Bills are probably angry after a loss to the Jets and they could be a team playing some inspired football – even if Allen doesn’t play.
The Minnesota Vikings have plenty on the line as well as they look to keep pace with the Philadelphia Eagles. But just like Matt Moore in Kansas City in 2019, Keenum should be able to beat his former team and end their winning streak.
Prediction: Bills win 17-13