The Minnesota Vikings were eliminated sooner than expected in this year’s playoffs and it adds to an offseason where plenty of tough decisions will be made.
The 2022 season for the Minnesota Vikings ended in disappointment after they were bounced by the New York Giants. A season full of comebacks and one-score victories finally swung the other way, leading to a scenario that Vikings fans know all too well.
But the end of the season is merged with the excitement of the offseason. Over the next six months, the Vikings will do everything they can to get back to where they were next season, but it will come with plenty of questions.
Several veterans will be looking for big deals, and the pending contract extension for Justin Jefferson is one that could shape the NFL for years to come. The task of fixing one of the league’s worst defenses will also be a hot topic and whether the Vikings will stay with Kirk Cousins or seek a quarterback of the future.
Some of the decisions won’t be popular, but they’re the type of decisions that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was hired to figure out. In this article, we’ll make 10 bold predictions for the 2023 offseason and see what could happen between now and the start of training camp.
Ed Donatell will be fired
Ed Donatell’s first season in Minnesota will not only go down as a disaster, but there’s a good chance that it will be his only season as the Vikings need to revamp their defense.
The Vikings were a mess on defense in 2022, ranking 28th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed. There were constant miscommunications, several players going off the age cliff, and a layer of predictability that allowed teams to march up and down the field, and adjustments were nowhere to be found.
Donatell might not be the only person to blame for the defense, but he’ll be the one receiving his pink slip soon. When the Vikings do pull the trigger, the next step will be to find someone to replace him.
Mike Pettine worked as a defensive consultant for the Vikings, but his defenses weren’t far off from what Donatell deployed this past season. Raheem Morris could also be a candidate due to his ties with Kevin O’Connell, but the return of Sean McVay to the Los Angeles Rams could convince him to stay.
Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero could also be a candidate as he has worked with O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah throughout his career, but he also could be in high demand.
Whoever the Vikings decide to replace Donatell, it’s clear that a change needs to happen. While the Vikings have yet to fire Donatell, expect this move to happen in the coming days.
Justin Jefferson’s new contract will set multiple records
At the beginning of the season, Justin Jefferson set the goal of becoming the best receiver in the NFL. To prove his point, Jefferson had a career year, catching 128 passes, 1,809 yards, and eight touchdowns on his way to a dark-horse MVP campaign.
Jefferson’s next achievement will be cashing in, as he’s due for a contract extension next May. After A.J. Brown ($56.4 million guaranteed), Tyreek Hill ($52.5 million), and Stefon Diggs ($47.9 million) set records for guaranteed money in their contracts, Jefferson figures to be the next in line.
The current biggest contract in total money is Davante Adams, who signed a five-year $140 million contract extension with $22.7 million last offseason. With Jefferson going into his prime, it wouldn’t be shocking if he soared past that number and got in excess of $60 million guaranteed on his next deal.
It’s a steep price to pay, but the Vikings will be more than happy to lock up the face of the franchise for the majority of the next decade.
Kirk Cousins will get another extension
In order to pay Jefferson, the Vikings will have to create cap room. Minnesota enters the offseason $19.3 million over the salary cap, and the decisions to cut, release, or trade players may be the biggest story of the offseason.
While the playoffs may be over, this is where Kirk Cousins plays his Super Bowl. A string of one-year, fully-guaranteed contracts followed the initial three-year, $84 million contract in 2018, and with the Vikings needing to find cap room, there’s a good chance he’ll be back at the negotiating table.
This is where things could get tricky. Cousins will have a valid argument for a raise after leading the Vikings to a 13-win season and increasing his presence in the locker room. He also posted his lowest passer rating since 2017 and was second in the league with 14 interceptions.
If Cousins were entering his age-25 season, the decision to pay him would be a little easier. Entering his age-35 season, the conversation becomes a little more difficult.
But even if the Vikings see a quarterback they like in the upcoming draft, it’s unlikely that they will be able to select him at No. 24. With just four picks in the draft, it’s also improbable that the Vikings would have the draft capital needed to move up and make a trade.
This leaves the Vikings in their own Stockholm Syndrome for Cousins, pumping out another one-year extension to keep him under center.
Adam Thielen has played his last game as a Viking
There might not be a more beloved player in team history than Adam Thielen. A Detroit Lakes native and Minnesota State Mankato alum, he’s lived the dream that many have acted out in their backyards, but few have actually gotten to live.
Unfortunately, time comes for everyone in the NFL and after a disappointing season, Thielen may have played his last game for his home state team.
Thielen was one of four players on the Vikings to record 60 catches this season, but he posted a career-low 1.06 yards per route run, according to Pro Football Focus. Thielen also appeared to be a step slow and struggled to get separation.
Still, Thielen was vocal about his future on Monday during an appearance on KFAN radio, saying he plans on playing in 2023.
"“I have a lot of ball left. I feel great. I feel like I can play at a really high level still. With that being said, I know I’m going to be playing football still [in 2023]. I don’t know how [much longer] that will be, but I will be playing football 100 percent [in 2023].”"
Even if this was due to an injury, teams are always looking for a reason not to pay players – even if they’re from Minnesota. With a $19.9 million cap number for next season, the Vikings will have to do something, but it remains to be seen if that will be a trade or release, which would create $6.4 million in cap room.
One thing that could be on the table is a contract restructure, but that kicks more money down the road for a 33-year-old that will already count $2.25 million against the cap during a void year in 2025.
Considering Thielen got a raise last year, it wouldn’t be surprising if they found a way to work things out. The Vikings do need a solution, however, and it could mean saying goodbye to one of their most popular players.
Several other fan favorites will be released
Thielen might not be the only popular player to have played his final game for the Vikings. If Minnesota wants to add impact talent in free agency, they’ll need to create more cap space, which could mean the release of several fan favorites.
Despite posting his fourth straight, 1,000-yard season, Dalvin Cook is a candidate for the chopping block after becoming one of the league’s worst running backs per Football Outsiders’ success rate. Entering his age-28 season, the Vikings might also want to get younger and cheaper at the position, handing the reigns to either pending free agent Alexander Mattison or rookie Ty Chandler.
Eric Kendricks could also be a cap casualty as he nears the end of his career. Kendricks had plenty of trouble keeping up with Saquon Barkley in Sunday’s playoff loss to the Giants but also carries a cap hit of $11.4 million next season.
If the Vikings release or trade Cook and Kendricks, it would clear up $17.4 million in cap space but would still leave them $7 million over the salary cap. Releasing other veterans such as Harrison Smith ($19.1 million cap number) or Za’Darius Smith ($16.9 million) could be on the table, but the Vikings will have to figure something out to have an effective offseason.
Danielle Hunter will be traded
One of the other big decisions the Vikings will have to make is whether to give Danielle Hunter a contract extension. Hunter signed a five-year, $72 million contract back in 2018, and he’s been looking for more money ever since as pass rushers have eclipsed the $100 million mark in total value.
The theme here is that the Vikings don’t have a lot of money to give Hunter, which could mean that a trade is in the works.
After playing in just eight games over the past two seasons due to neck and pectoral injuries, Hunter had a solid season in 2022, collecting 10.5 sacks and ranking sixth among edge rushers with 70 total pressures. But he also looked uncomfortable as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and his best value might be as a 4-3 edge rusher playing on the line of scrimmage.
The scheme fit could entice the Vikings to see what they could get for Hunter. If they get something similar to what the Chicago Bears got from the Los Angles Chargers for Khalil Mack (2022 second-round, 2023 sixth-round picks), it could help them reload their draft capital and begin to rebuild their defense.
T.J. Hockenson will sign an extension (and Irv Smith will leave in free agency)
While cutting and trading veterans is one way to create room, signing some of the younger players is a way to lower a cap number. In the case of T.J. Hockenson, an extension is worth the investment, thanks to the draft capital that was used to acquire him and his performance this past season.
Hockenson set career highs with 86 catches and 914 receiving yards this past year, and his six touchdowns tied a career-high set in 2020. After making his second Pro Bowl, the soon-to-be 26-year-old figures to be a key part of the Vikings offense.
It’s fitting that Irv Smith Jr. will be in a contract year just as Hockenson is ready to get paid. Hockenson is what many hoped Smith would be after he was selected in the second round of the 2018 draft, but injuries and ineffectiveness on the field have effectively erased him from Minnesota’s plans.
It’s unclear as to where Smtih will land, but it’s a safe bet he has played his final game for the Vikings.
Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson will leave in free agency
Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson were two of the leaders of the Vikings’ defense, but with a rebuild on the horizon, both players might be headed elsewhere this spring.
Peterson had a renaissance last season and has become one of the leaders in the locker room. His five interceptions were the most since he picked off seven passes in 2012, and there’s a valid argument to bring him back for one more year.
The problem is that Peterson is 32 and is one year removed from an injury-riddled 2021 campaign. With Cameron Dantzler, Duke Shelley, Andrew Booth Jr., and Akayleb Evans on the roster, the Vikings could go with a youth movement at cornerback or sign someone who won’t demand a major increase on the $4 million Peterson earned last season.
Tomlinson is another interesting case, as he’s coming off his best season in Minnesota. At age 28, Tomlinson is young enough to make an impact for years to come, but the Vikings are already paying Harrison Phillips $6.8 million next season.
The current regime didn’t sign Tomlinson, so it’s possible the Vikings let him walk to find a cheaper option in free agency. Either way, both veterans could be gone as the Vikings try to get younger and cheaper on the defense.
Garrett Bradbury will re-sign with the Vikings
When the Vikings declined Garrett Bradbury’s fifth-year option last spring, it was a foregone conclusion that this season would be his last in Minnesota. But O’Connell praised Bradbury during the combine and was able to mask his deficiencies enough to make him an effective center.
Bradbury might ask for a raise on the roughly $4.1 million he made last season, but that would be reasonable enough to keep him around. If anything, the Vikings could always sign or draft another center to compete with Bradbury in training camp and see if the 2018 first-round pick is up for the challenge.
A wild card in this scenario is the status of Bradbury’s back. The injury forced Bradbury to miss the final four games of the regular season, but he was able to return in the playoff loss to the Giants. If the injury requires surgery, however, it could drop his value and convince the Vikings to take the risk.
Although the Vikings need to make changes, they can’t replace everyone in a single offseason. If the price is right, Bradbury should return for at least one more season.
The Vikings will trade down for defense in the draft
We have talked a lot about the Vikings’ needs for cap space and youth, but if the Vikings are going to do that, they’ll need to acquire more draft picks.
The Vikings have just four picks in this year’s draft. With just one pick in the top 90, there’s a good chance Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will start looking for trade partners and hit the sweet spot in the draft to acquire more talent.
Perhaps dealing a high-priced veteran could fix this problem, but if they don’t, it could lead to another series of trade downs. In his first draft, Adofo-Mensah showed a willingness to move up and down throughout the draft, even if it meant trading with a divisional rival.
The Vikings didn’t get much out of last year’s draft, but if Adofo-Mensah makes the right trades, they should have an opportunity to reload in 2023.