The Minnesota Vikings face plenty of important decisions during the 2024 offseason after failing to make the playoffs in the 2023 campaign.
The 2023 season has ended for the Minnesota Vikings, but if you were hoping to take a deep breath, the fun has just begun.
The Vikings could be embarking on one of the most important offseasons in team history with several difficult decisions to make.
One decision is the pending free agency of Kirk Cousins, while Danielle Hunter, Dalton Risner, and others will also be seeking new contracts.
Speaking of contracts, an extension for Justin Jefferson remains on the list of things to do, and Minnesota will go into an NFL Draft that is not only rich at quarterback but has several players that could help reinforce their roster.
Add it all up and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is not in an enviable situation as Vikings general manager.
But in this article, we’ll look into our crystal ball and make 10 bold predictions as Minnesota heads into the 2024 offseason.
Bold Vikings Prediction No. 1
The Vikings will re-sign Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins’s free agency has been a hot topic dating back to March when his camp couldn’t agree on a long-term extension with the Vikings.
After declaring that talks wouldn’t begin until after the final year of his contract, Cousins put up big stats, throwing for 2,331 yards, 18 touchdowns, and five interceptions in eight games before suffering a torn Achilles in a Week 8 win over the Green Bay Packers.
Vikings fans may have gained appreciation for Cousins as Nick Mullens and Josh Dobbs struggled to replace him, and now Cousins returns to the negotiation table with the full support of Kevin O’Connell and several players, including Justin Jefferson and Brian O’Neill.
Cousins told reporters on Monday that his decision won’t be about money but what the money means.
While he offered to take a “discount” last offseason, it came with the condition of having his 2024 and 2025 seasons guaranteed before Minnesota decided to just restructure his current contract ahead of the new league year last March.
So what will the Vikings decide to do? Perhaps the two sides can reach a compromise if Cousins is willing to play ball.
While the 2024 season could be guaranteed, Minnesota could offer another chunk of money in 2025 with a two-year deal that would keep Cousins under contract through his age-37 season.
That seems risky, but the quarterback has enough supporters at TCO Performance Center to make it happen.
If he gets his way, it’s easy to see Cousins sticking around and signing another deal this offseason.
Bold Vikings Prediction No. 2
Justin Jefferson will become the highest-paid non-QB in NFL history
The 2023 season was filled with surprises, but the most shocking moment may have come when the Vikings didn’t agree with Justin Jefferson on a new contract extension.
First-round picks typically don’t sign a big-money extension after the third year of their rookie contract because teams have a fifth-year option, but Jefferson figured to be an exception as the face of their franchise.
When Jefferson didn’t sign, a fan base who watched Randy Moss, Stefon Diggs and Percy Harvin get traded put every one of his reactions under a microscope and whether his perceived unhappiness would make him the next one out the door.
There has been speculation that the Vikings could use Jefferson to acquire a high pick to draft a quarterback this year, but that seems like overkill.
The better scenario is to use Jefferson, who is now one of five receivers in NFL history to reach at least 1,000 receiving yards over his first four seasons, to help elevate whoever is playing quarterback for Minnesota.
This contract is not going to be cheap, and it should surpass Nick Bosa’s five-year, $170 million contract the pass rusher signed with the San Francisco 49ers last season.
But the investment is also worth it for a player who not only performs at a high level, but also elevates everyone around him.
Bold Vikings Prediction No. 3
Harrison Smith will retire
One of the most important decisions this offseason won’t be made by the Vikings as Harrison Smith contemplates retirement.
A first-round draft pick by Minnesota in 2012, Smith wrapped up his 12th season with the Vikings and sounded emotional after their season finale against the Detroit Lions.
“Whenever I retire, I’m not going to tell you,” Smith said. “You’ll figure it out... It’s hard to have the ability to play and not have a desire to play. Whatever that gives you, I’m not trying to be ominous or anything. Right now, my shoulder hurts.”
Smith’s comments could be from a player who just went through the grind of a 17-game regular season. But they’re also from a player who contemplated retirement before returning on a revised contract last spring.
Set to turn 35 in February, Smith could be ready to hang it up, especially if he feels like he doesn’t have it anymore.
“I’ve been at peace for a while,” Smith said. “When I was a kid, I never thought I’d play in the NFL. To have a career I’ve had to this point, it’s pretty cool. [I] got to play with a lot of great people, a lot of great players and coaches. Lot of struggle, lot of ups and downs. It’s kind of what makes it so fun, too. Sorry, I don’t have any more info.”
Smith is under contract and has a cap hit of $19.2 million in 2024 and 2025.
With no guaranteed money remaining, the veteran safety could get cut if he doesn’t work out another revision on his contract, and that could spell the end of a Hall of Fame-worthy career.
Bold Vikings Prediction No. 4
Brian Flores will return as defensive coordinator
One of the most expected moves of the offseason is that Brian Flores will leave for a head coaching job. But it might be premature to assume he’ll leave after one season in Minnesota.
Flores did a remarkable job turning the Vikings’ 30th defense under Ed Donatell in 2023 into the 13th-ranked defense in points allowed this season.
He installed a new system and got the most out of players who didn’t get the opportunity to shine with previous regimes.
That resume should be good enough to get Flores a job somewhere, but he could be looking for the right opportunity after his previous stint with the Miami Dolphins went sideways.
While teams like the Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, and Washington Commanders have openings, Flores may want to enter a more stable situation, such as the one in New England now that the Patriots have moved on from Bill Belichick.
Even then, there could be hesitation from owners to hire Flores due to his pending discrimination lawsuit against the NFL.
Flores is qualified to be a head coach, but he might wait for the right opportunity before jumping back into that role.
Bold Vikings Prediction No. 5
The Vikings will re-sign Danielle Hunter
If you’re doing the math at home, you might believe that if the Vikings sign Justin Jefferson to a long-term extension and bring Kirk Cousins back in free agency, they won’t have room to bring back Danielle Hunter.
But there are certain loopholes Minnesota used to keep their core together.
The Vikings have Rob Brzezinski in their front office, who is the Simone Biles of salary cap gymnastics.
While Minnesota has a lot of financial decisions to make, they are currently expected to have over $37 million in cap space heading into the offseason and could have even more if Harrison Smith decides to retire.
While the Vikings could use void years to soften the blow, they’ll also have one more year of Jefferson’s rookie deal before an extension would kick in next season.
For example, Bosa’s contract carries a cap hit of under $21 million in each of the first three seasons before ballooning to $42 million in 2026.
With no guaranteed money in the contract, that could lead to a negotiation point for a new contract and can tack money onto the $5.8 million spread through void years in 2028 and 2029.
This could open the door for Hunter’s return after logging 16.5 sacks in his first season under Brian Flores.
While there will be other suitors looking to hand him a blank check, Flores’s pending return could sway Hunter the opposite way and keep him in Minneapolis into his early 30s.
Bold Vikings Prediction No. 6
The Vikings will sign at least two defensive starters in free agency
Brian Flores did a great job of reviving the Vikings defense last year but they started to fade down the stretch.
While players such as Josh Metellus and Ivan Pace Jr. broke out, Minnesota still has a lack of impact players who can come up with a game-changing play.
This could lead the Vikings into the free agency market to shore up some of their areas of need.
Minnesota could use another impact player next to Harrison Phillips on the defensive line, or they could look to find another edge rusher who could either play beside Hunter or become his replacement.
The Vikings’ biggest need could be in the secondary, where Akayleb Evans struggled down the stretch, and Byron Murphy Jr. and Mekhi Blackmon suffered injuries.
Minnesota could also look for another safety if they don’t believe that Lewis Cine is going to pan out.
The Vikings can’t go on a massive spending spree in free agency, but they can find some pieces to make it work.
If they find a surprise or two, Minnesota could wind up building off last year’s success.
Bold Vikings Prediction No. 7
The Vikings will bring back their entire offensive line
Fans were confused when the Vikings decided to bring their offensive line back this season, but that continuity was a big reason for its success.
With Christian Darrisaw, Garrett Bradbury, Ed Ingram, and Brian O’Neill returning, Minnesota had a leg up on their competition before replacing Ezra Cleveland with Dalton Risner.
The Vikings have some questions about the group moving forward, but it shouldn’t be enough to stop them from getting the band back together next offseason.
Risner is a pending free agent but has expressed his desire to stay in Minnesota.
While that could lead to a solid contract, it could be a cost of doing business with a player who ranked 23rd in PFF’s pass grades last season.
That cost could also be suppressed by Risner’s deficiencies in run blocking.
If Risner returns, the Vikings can run back the rest of their offensive line with the chance to add competition in free agency or with a draft pick.
Whatever the situation, expect the line to look similar to what it did last season.
Bold Vikings Prediction No. 8
The Vikings will draft a running back
One of the biggest storylines from last season was the Vikings’ desire to move on from running back Dalvin Cook.
While they got rid of his cap hit just over $14 million, they took a major step back when they decided to re-sign Alexander Mattison and make him their RB1.
In 2023, Mattison became the 13th player since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to have no rushing touchdowns with a minimum of 180 carries in a season.
That feat is even more rare, considering just two players have done it since 2000, and Melvin Gordon was the last player to do it during his rookie year in 2015.
With $2.75 million of his $3.3 million base salary guaranteed, it’s unlikely the Vikings will look to move off Mattison. But they could try to look for his replacement in next year’s draft.
One of the biggest things Minnesota will be looking for is a back that can generate yards after contact.
Mattison ranked 41st among qualifying running backs, averaging 2.76 yards after contact last season, and Ty Chandler wasn’t much better, ranking 36th with 2.85 yards after contact.
While this draft doesn’t have an elite prospect, it has players that can fit that demand, including Notre Dame’s Audric Estime (4.27 yards after contact), Oregon’s Bucky Irving (3.98), and USC’s MarShawn Lloyd (3.97).
Each of these names could be taken on Day 3 of the draft and could provide a much-needed upgrade in the NFL Draft.
Bold Vikings Prediction No. 9
The Vikings will draft a QB within the first two rounds of the 2024 draft
The Vikings could bring Kirk Cousins back, but at some point, they need to start thinking about the future.
Cousins is entering his age-36 season and coming off a torn Achilles, and if the Vikings don’t execute a Plan B, he becomes the quarterback for a regime that has two years remaining on the contracts they signed back in February 2021.
Unlike last year, the question isn’t if Minnesota will draft a quarterback. It’s more of a question of when.
This year’s class has three big names at the top, including USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and LSU’s Jayden Daniels.
While each of these quarterbacks could fall during the pre-draft process, the Vikings' best chance to land any of these players is to get into the top 3.
That could be easier said than done, as the price could be astronomical. The Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, and New England Patriots all occupy the top three spots in the draft, and each team has a glaring need at quarterback.
If the Vikings want to make a deal for the third overall pick, it could be more than the haul the Houston Texans gave the Arizona Cardinals to move up for Will Anderson last year.
(Editor’s Note: The Texans traded away the No. 12 and No. 33 selections in the 2023 draft as well as first and third-round picks to the Cardinals in exchange for the No. 105 selection and the No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 draft).
Minnesota is one spot higher than the Texans were, but the Patriots could want to avoid another year of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, sending the Vikings into the next tier of quarterbacks.
Perhaps it could be too early to select Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., Oregon’s Bo Nix, or Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at 11, but the possibility of selecting one in the later rounds shouldn’t be ignored.
The latter could help the Vikings add an impact player in another area (edge rusher, cornerback, defensive line) and still get a QB of the future in the later rounds.
Either way, expect a new quarterback to join the roster in next April’s draft.
Bold Vikings Prediction No. 10
The Vikings will win 10 games in 2024
It’s never too early to run through the schedule, but since we aren’t predicting major changes for the Vikings next season, we can take a stab at how they could fare next year.
The 2023 season was a disaster for Minnesota as they were victims of their own luck. Injuries to Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins didn’t help, and O’Connell’s playcalling seemed to regress once Cousins was out of the lineup.
While the pendulum should swing back to the Vikings next season, it’s unlikely to return to 2022 levels when Minnesota won 13 games on the strength of eight fourth-quarter comebacks.
The likely result is somewhere in the middle, where the Vikings could win 9-10 games.
The good news is that the Vikings will have a third-place schedule that includes 10 games against non-playoff teams. But even if Minnesota takes advantage of its schedule, shouldn’t the bar be higher?
In this projection, we assume that Cousins and Hunter will be back and the majority of the roster is unchanged.
Even if they run everything back, are 10 wins enough to compete in the NFC and overtake some of the top teams to be a Super Bowl contender?
These are questions the front office has to answer this offseason and it could lead to a couple of months that could shape the future of the franchise.