With four games left in the season, the Minnesota Vikings control their destiny for a playoff spot.
The Vikings enter Week 15 with a 7-6 record and sit atop a log jam of 6-7 teams vying for the final two Wild Card spots in the NFC. If Minnesota takes care of their business over the final four games, they will be playing football in mid-to-late January, but a gauntlet of tough opponents stand in their way.
The first game in this stretch will come on Saturday when the Vikings travel to take on the Cincinnati Bengals. Like Minnesota, the Bengals are trying to compete for a playoff spot after a season-ending injury to quarterback Joe Burrow and are in an AFC log jam that includes six teams that own 7-6 records heading into this week.
With both teams facing a pivotal point of their seasons, it should be an interesting matchup – even if it’s not what we thought it would be at the beginning of the year.
In this article, we’ll make five bold predictions and see which team can build momentum as they look to make their way to the playoffs.
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Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson will both put on a show
When the schedule came out, Saturday’s game was billed as a 2019 LSU Tigers reunion. While Joe Burrow will be watching from the sidelines after suffering a season-ending wrist injury, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase will both be looking to grab the upper hand as they’ll be on the field together for the first time since college.
Jefferson’s season has been riddled by injuries, including a chest injury that knocked him out of last week’s win over the Las Vegas Raiders. While he went to the hospital due to the hit from Raiders safety Marcus Epps, it was more of a precaution, and he should be ready to go for Saturday’s game in Cincinnati.
This is bad news for the Bengals, who placed Cam Taylor-Britt on injured reserve on December 4. According to Pro Football Focus, Jefferson has the seventh-best matchup against all Bengals secondary members and should be the focal point of Kevin O’Connell’s offense, which struggled mightily with Josh Dobbs under center.
But while Jefferson could have a big game, Chase could be in line for an even bigger one. Brian Flores will likely dial up plenty of blitzes to keep Bengals backup Jake Browning under pressure, but it could mean a lot of one-on-one coverage with Chase taking on Byron Murphy Jr. and Akayleb Evans.
For what it’s worth, PFF has Chase’s matchup with the Vikings’ secondary listed as the third-best among this week’s games.
The game plan of both offenses should be to get their star receivers the ball, and it could lead to a competition within the game to see which former Bayou Bengal comes out on top.
Nick Mullens will turn the ball over at least twice
Saturday’s game will mark the Vikings’ fourth different starting quarterback of the season when Nick Mullens gets the start against the Bengals.
Kirk Cousins suffered a torn Achilles in the win over the Green Bay Packers on October 29, and the Vikings have turned to Jaren Hall and Josh Dobbs, but Mullens might be the most similar quarterback to Cousins as a pocket passer with an important caveat.
Ball security has been a weakness for Mullens, as he’s posted a 4.4 turnover-worthy play rate throughout his career. He threw just as many touchdowns (12) as interceptions (12) during his last run of extended playing time with the San Francisco 49ers in 2020 and posted a 5.8 percent turnover-worthy play rate, according to PFF.
Even more concerning is Mullens’s performance when pressured. Mullens posted a seven percent turnover-worthy play rate when pressured in 2020, with seven of his interceptions coming when the opposing defense had a hand in his face.
With Minnesota right tackle Brian O’Neill out for Saturday’s game with a sprained ankle, the odds of giving the ball to the Bengals' defense are high. It will be on Kevin O’Connell and his staff to limit those instances and keep the Vikings offense afloat.
Ivan Pace Jr. will put up another monster game
Ivan Pace Jr. has been one of many players to flourish under Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores this season, but his success was something that many scouts didn’t see coming.
An undrafted free agent, Pace has become a key component of Minnesota's defense and could be heading for another big game in his collegiate homecoming.
Pace was dominant at the University of Cincinnati and capped it off with a huge senior season. In addition to logging 137 tackles and 21.5 tackles for loss, he was also the top-graded FBS linebacker by Pro Football Focus while ranking first in pass-rushing grade and third in run defense.
Pace has rewarded the Vikings' faith with 68 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and an interception this season and is coming off his best game as a pro, logging 13 tackles with a sack and a pick while winning NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors.
There’s a good chance that Pace could be in for plenty of opportunities for an encore as the Bengals have altered their offense in the absence of Joe Burrow.
According to The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr., the Bengals have turned to the screen game to simplify things for Jake Browning and could play into the hands of Pace, who ranks sixth in coverage grade this season.
If Pace can execute, it could help the Vikings flip the game and keep the defense rolling.
Ty Chandler will make the most of his first career start
The Vikings backfield hasn’t been effective this season but many have placed their hope into the hands of Ty Chandler.
The speedy running back out of North Carolina will finally get his first career start as Alexander Mattison has been ruled out with an ankle injury, but there are several hurdles to clear to make the most out of his opportunity.
The most obvious obstacle is Cincinnati’s defense, which has struggled against the run this season. While they allow 127.2 yards per game, they also have the third-highest yards per carry (4.7) this season, which gives Chandler a favorable matchup.
But for as much as Chandler and his 4.3-second 40-yard dash time can turn a mistake into a touchdown there are several hurdles to be. Chandler’s pass protection has convinced the Vikings to use C.J. Ham in the backfield as a pass protector and O’Connell’s desire for consistency could work against the boom-or-bust nature of Chandler.
Even with his flaws, Chandler has enough to have a big play or two on Saturday. That could be enough to convince the coaching staff to trust Chandler moving forward and help him cash in on his first career start.
The Bengals will edge out the Vikings
It’s hard to tell what to make out of the Vikings as they head down the stretch. Minnesota has a dominant defense under Brian Flores, but their offense has had many moving parts – most notably at the quarterback position.
While Cincinnati has experienced the same issues, they still have Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, who can take advantage if the pass rush can’t get home on Jake Browning. With the Bengals’ offensive line thriving, it could also mean good things for Joe Mixon, who has been steady, if not spectacular, this season.
The Bengals are vulnerable to the big play, and if the Vikings create some turnovers, they should be able to keep it close. But too much of the Vikings foundation will be watching Saturday’s game from the sidelines, which could lead them to a tough start in a pivotal four-game stretch.
Prediction: Bengals win 16-10