Is it possible the Minnesota Vikings top receiver could struggle in 2020?
Adam Thielen has worked his way up the Minnesota Vikings depth chart from being a practice squad player, to a core special teamer, to one of the best receivers in the NFL today. He’s a great story and he’s heading into the 2020 season as the Vikings’ No. 1 option in the passing game.
Thielen has a great rapport with his quarterback in Minnesota, Kirk Cousins. These two have a great sense for each other and Cousins often places the balls in spots where only Thielen can catch it.
In 2020, the Vikings should, once again, have a very potent rushing attack, which opposing defenses will have to focus on stopping. This should create more opportunities for Thielen to make plays down the field.
However, despite his connection with his quarterback and the potential of a successful ground attack, there’s a possibility Thielen could have a down year in 2020.
A lot of changes have occurred with Minnesota’s offense this offseason and it could result in Thielen finishing with lower numbers than most expect. So what are some reasons why he could actually have a disappointing season in 2020?
No more Stefon Diggs
Adam Thielen has been extremely productive since the 2016 season. During this span, there has been one consistent opposite him and that was Stefon Diggs.
As talented as a receiver as Thielen is, Diggs was just as, if not more, talented. Diggs has great speed and he is as good a route-runner as there is in the NFL today.
He often provided big plays that got the Minnesota offense out of a funk. Diggs’ presence on the field kept defenses honest and it didn’t allow teams to double-team Thielen. Without Diggs in town anymore, that trend could end in 2020.
Thielen and Diggs worked extremely well together. Diggs was more of the field-stretching type of receiver while Thielen did a lot of damage over the middle and in traffic. Their time together ranks near the top when it comes to the Vikings best receiving duos of all-time and it is a fair question to ask if one can produce while the other isn’t on the same field as them.
In 2020, opposing defenses will now focus on taking Thielen out of Minnesota’s passing equation. Besides Kyle Rudolph, he’s the only proven threat in the Vikings passing attack that is loaded with young players who have yet to prove their worth.
Thielen could see more double-teams during the upcoming season than ever before, meaning will have to fight and scrap for every reception he makes.
Jefferson could be slow to pick up the offense
One thing that’ll help ease the loss of Stefon Diggs for the Vikings offense and Adam Thielen’s production is if Justin Jefferson can make an impact early in the season.
Minnesota used the first-round draft pick they got in the Diggs deal from the Buffalo Bills to add his replacement and they will need him to step up right away.
Jefferson is a talented player with a great combination of size and speed. He can work out of the slot or on the outside and Vikings offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak views him as a perfect fit for his passing attack. However, he could be slow to pick up the offense and acclimate himself to the speed of the NFL game in 2020.
Jefferson has already lost valuable time this offseason. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Minnesota and the rest of the league had to cancel OTAs and rookie mini-camps. This has put Jefferson far behind where most rookies normally are at this point in their transition to the pros. He is going to have to learn a lot in a short period of time to be ready for Week 1.
If he doesn’t progress as quickly as the Vikings need, this will definitely result in Thielen seeing more double-teams from opposing defenses.
NFL defenses aren’t going to worry about Jefferson until he can prove to be a consistent threat. If that takes a quarter of the season to happen, Thielen could see a very slow start production-wise to his 2020 campaign, as he will be constantly battling through double-teams.
Change in the play-caller
Kevin Stefanski took the Cleveland Browns head coaching job this offseason and this move resulted in Gary Kubiak becoming the Vikings’ new offensive coordinator and play-caller.
While the offense won’t look that much different with Kubiak in charge, as his paws were all over what Stefanksi ran a season ago, the fact he’s now calling the shots could result in fewer targets coming Thielen’s way.
First off, Kubiak loves running the football. Minnesota’s offensive line is built to run the ball, so there’s a good chance the team could rely on the ground game even more in 2020 than they did a season ago, which would result in a loss of looks for Thielen.
Kubiak also loves to utilize two tight ends. He has a couple of great options with Irv Smith Jr. and Kyle Rudolph. Smith is ready to bust out and have a huge season in 2020, so he could see an extended number of targets come his way with Kubiak now calling the shots.
The Vikings could also choose to spread the ball around more during the upcoming season. While losing Stefon Diggs hurts the quality of Minnesota’s receiving corps, they added other players in free agency and the draft this year that made the group deeper as a whole.
Kubiak could look to utilize players like Tajae Sharpe, Bisi Johnson, K.J. Osborn, and Quartney Davis (if he makes the squad) in 2020. Factoring these players in along with the tight ends and passes to the running backs, Thielen could see well under the 109 targets he’s been averaging the last four years.
Offensive line could be worse
The Vikings have upgraded many positions this offseason, but one where they arguably got worse was at guard.
Minnesota cut Josh Kline and look set to start unproven Dru Samia in his place at right guard in 2020. Opposite him is Pat Elflein, who despite being God awful for the last season and a half, continues to remain employed by the Vikings.
Minnesota is taking a huge chance by banking on Samia and Elflein. They are hoping Samia is ready for a starting job and he can play up to the high bar that Kline set a season ago. They are taking a bigger chance at letting Elflein start again and just thinking he’ll be better for no apparent reason. If these two struggle in 2020 as many expect them to, the interior pass rush could get to Kirk Cousins.
If Cousins is indeed running for his life because his guards can’t handle anchoring against interior pressure, it will result in rushed throws or even worse, throwaways. These lost plays will result in lost targets for Adam Thielen and that could lead to lowered production from this star player in 2020.