What type of relationship and dynamic can one expect from Minnesota Vikings tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. in 2020?
The 2019 Minnesota Vikings were one of four NFL teams to feature two tight ends with 35+ receptions apiece. The other three teams to do this were the Tennesee Titans, Philadephia Eagles, and Los Angeles Rams. There is no reason to believe that the use of two commodities at tight end, like Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr., will be lessened in 2020.
Why? In the 2019 NFL Draft, Minnesota had depth chart needs at the offensive line [eternally], cornerback, and defensive tackle positions. Yet, the front office swerved and selected Alabama Crimson Tide tight end Irv Smith Jr. The Vikings already had longtime tight end Kyle Rudolph on the roster, so the Smith Jr. choice was a bit puzzling.
However, it was perplexing in a very exciting way. The Smith Jr. scouting report foreshadowed a TE-WR hybrid, a winning background at Alabama, and migraine headaches for opposing linebackers. His physical build can be described in two ways: Smith Jr. is an undersized tight end or he’s an oversized wide receiver. That’s the interchangeability we’re dealing with here.
More importantly, the Rudolph and Smith Jr. experiment in 2019 launched with mostly positive reviews. The men combined for 84 receptions, 678 yards, and eight touchdowns. That stat line is akin to what you could expect from former Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten in his mid-30s, but with more touchdowns for Rudolph and Smith Jr. This is mentioned only to prove the volume of production was evident last year.
So, where do the two men go from here? How will they coexist in 2020? Let’s find out.
1. New Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak heavily relies on his tight ends
Last season, Minnesota wielded its tight-end weapons about 23 percent of the time with the team’s aerial attack. Of this near-quarter of all targets, Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. were effectively tied for attention; Rudolph was targeted 48 times, Smith Jr. 47 times.
As a whole, the Vikings receiving corps will assuredly look and feel different compared to last season as Stefon Diggs is no longer with the team. The loss of his productivity and aura will fundamentally alter the spirit of the passing game. The good news is–that does not have to be at the detriment of the enterprise. The Vikings countered the Diggs exodus with rookie Justin Jefferson’s entrance. Although Jefferson will probably need time to make a Diggsian impact, he’s allegedly ready to make a statement on day one.
Regardless if Jefferson does or doesn’t, Gary Kubiak has Rudolph and Smith Jr. to serve as a safety net. Kubiak has a documented history of implementing tight ends into his offense to the utmost. That history is detailed here.
2. Irv Smith Jr. will supplant Kyle Rudolph for TE1. The question is when?
Here’s some breaking news. The Minnesota Vikings did not draft Irv Smith. Jr with a second-round pick to be an eternal TE2. Therefore, sooner or later depending on your interpretation of time, Irv Smith Jr. will be the undisputed tight end for the Minnesota Vikings franchise.
Our job is to watch the games and determine when. Rudolph earns about $10 million in average annual salary, so he is compensated appropriately as the team’s go-to tight end. But that will not last forever. The more that Smith Jr. evolves into a dependable playmaker, Rudolph’s prominence will dwindle. The Rudolph-Smith Jr. tandem twosome may last for five years; it may last for seven more months. We don’t know. Hell, even general manager Rick Spielman could be undecided.
Yet, as for the 2020 season, Vikings faithful will see breadcrumbs as to how this shared-power dynamic at the tight end will look in its second go-round. The outcome will heavily influence the front office’s decision-making as it pertains to Rudolph’s future.
3. Rudolph will continue to be Kirk Cousins’ clutch time confidant
In the last 20 years, Kyle Rudolph has scored more fourth-quarter receiving touchdowns than anybody in the Vikings organization. Rudolph has hauled in 20 such touchdowns since he entered the NFL in 2011. To offer legitimacy on how impressive this feat is, longtime Vikings running back scored 21 fourth-quarter touchdowns during his 10 years with Minnesota. And by design, sure-fire Hall of Fame tailbacks generally have more scores than tight ends. Kudos to Rudolph.
Kirk Cousins–and purple signal-callers before him–trust Rudolph down the stretch. That is not a character trait that vanishes as one grows older. In fact, the clutch gene usually grows more dependable as a player matures into his 30s. That’s where Rudolph is at; he will be 31 years-old in November. If Rudolph is to display an intensified level of clutch play, well, opposing defenses should shudder.
It should be noted that none of this is to discount Irv Smith Jr.’s potential. He, too, could be clutch. But we already know that Rudolph as it in him.
4. The Vikings should be happy with a “the more the merrier” approach at tight end
Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, and Owen Daniels. Those are the names of the Super Bowl-winning tight ends in the last six Super Bowls. Most of that list is stellar; one was pretty darn good.
The recent formula to winning in February undoubtedly embraces an aspect of heavy tight end production. It’s not debatable. Even the Super Bowl runner-up teams with the likes of George Kittle in 2019 and Greg Olsen in 2015 have adhered to the trend.
If you look around the landscape of the NFL, successful teams do not skimp at the tight end position. As the Vikings embark on the 2020 campaign, a tight end deficiency is nowhere near their list of question marks.
This analysis does not pretend that singularly Rudolph or Smith Jr. are on par with the talents of a Kelce, Gronkowski, or Ertz. But as a sum of parts between the two men, they have a reasonable shot as replicating the production of a solo All-Pro tight end. And that theory does not take into account that Irv Smith Jr. could quite possibly develop into an upper-echelon tight much the aforementioned Super Bowl winners.