Oct 26, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; Fresno State Bulldogs quarterback Derek Carr (4) after being sacked by San Diego State linebacker Nick Tenhaeff (36) during the second half at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Vikings Draft: Statistical Proof That Derek Carr Is Horrible Under Pressure


There are some who will argue that it is worthless to ever cite college statistics when making the case for a draft prospect, these stats being often a function of things far outside the control of the individual in question, including level of competition, scheme, etc.,

There is truth to this. But it’s also true that not all stats are created equal. Summarily dismissing all statistical evidence is equally as foolish as mindlessly citing “impressive” statistics without giving context.

In other words, sometimes you stumble across a statistic so compelling, you can’t ignore it. Even if you recognize the peril inherent in throwing out a particular stat without being able to fully contextualize it.

Sometimes your gut tells you, “Woah. That matters.”

That happened to me just a minute ago when I stumbled upon this Rotoworld blurb about Derek Carr:

ESPN Stats & Information reports that Fresno State’s Derek Carr completed only 30.9 percent of his passes when under duress in 2013.

This number is terrifying for a few reasons. First off, it’s the lowest duress rate of any top quarterback prospect. Second, NFL QBs completed 41.5 percent of passes when under duress last year. Only three NFL QBS had a duress percentage lower than Carr’s collegiate rate. We don’t need to explain the difference between NFL edge rushers and those found in the Mountain West Conference.

That sounds…bad.

All the arm talent in the world won’t help a guy if he’s pooping his pants every time the pocket starts collapsing.

By no means does this one stat close the case on Derek Carr, but I do think it provides pretty compelling evidence that Carr has an issue with poise in the pocket. And that certainly should be an issue for any team evaluating him as a draft pick.

Again, one has to go to the tape to find out what this really means. But it does give you something specific to look at, if you were inclined to re-watch some Derek Carr games.

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Tags: Derek Carr Minnesota Vikings

  • disqus_URVQzr9Kqc

    And you are?????

  • 5150dogfan

    Yep 50 tds to 8 ints with probably the worst O line in the Conf. absolutely no rushing attack support, throws for over 5000 yards playing only into the third qtr in many games and the guy is terrible……..Crushes multiple Conf and school records held by guys who played well at the next level some wearing superbowl rings and you say…..Hes Terrible…..

    BTW- I am very familiar with the article you are noting, and have had a convesation with the author, as I use statistics every day on a professional level and found multiple flaws in his approach, garbage in garbage out……..
    As I mentoned unless you put all the QBs behind the same rushing attack and O line the statistics are skewed right out of the gate……

    I would’ve have at least liked to see him look at how many times each QB was in the redzone thus limiting the ability to throw the mid to Deep Ball (Carr ran over 65 plays more in the RZ then the next closest “Bortles” of the top QB’s), and you would also need to look at how many passes were dropped and or obviously thrown away……

    Even with a subpar O line, Carr has a very limited number of sacks and INT’s, well this is because he knows how to get rid of the ball (kind of strange people say he struggles under pressure but he has very few INT’s and Sacks???? Doesnt add up????)……..Where as other QB’s will throw it up for grabs, take a sack, or run out of bounds, Carr is always looking down field and puts the ball either where only his WR had a shot or he simply throws it away……

    FWIW- By using selective data I could make any QB look great or by selecting different data make them look like they have a ton of flaws…….As I said before all things are not equal, many very important factors were left out of the roto article thus the results are questionable at best…………

    • Daniel Laxen

      TD to INT ratio is, in my opinion, a more telling stat. Reading defenses, accuracy, and intelligence is what makes a QB. Take a sack. Toss it in the 5th row. Throw it at someone’s feet. Just don’t try to force that stupid throw like Ponder and TJack did time after time…