Study Says Bridgewater was “Most Valuable” QB in the Draft
By Ben Gotz
If you’re an advanced stats fan, than Teddy Bridgewater may be your guy.
While plenty of anonymous scouts and executives doubted Bridgewater leading up to the draft, now Bridgewater’s defenders are pointing to the numbers.
The Vikings found that Bridgewater was the best against the blitz in the 2014 draft class. The Browns had an independent study conducted that supposedly found that Bridgewater had the best chance for success among the crop of quarterbacks in 2014.
And now Nate Silver, a man who got his start in baseball sabermetrics and famously predicted all 50 states in the Electoral College in 2012, and his website are presenting stats that favor Bridgewater as well.
In a study published on Silver’s website, Bridgewater was found to have added 3.8 wins to the Louisville 2013 season. The study created this statistic comparable to baseball’s WAR, and applied it to many of the most recognizable quarterbacks in college.
The website came to its conclusions after analyzing nine seasons of college football and 6,884 games in all.
The only quarterback in college football last season who added more wins to their team’s season than Bridgewater was Jameis Winston, who added 4.2 wins. Bridgewater beat out other notable college quarterbacks such as Oregon’s Marcus Mariota (3.5 wins), Baylor’s Bryce Petty (3.4 wins) and Johnny Manziel (3.3 wins).
Bridgewater’s 2013 season ended up as the 8th highest ranked season according to the study, ahead of such notable seasons as Robert Griffin III’s Heisman campaign in 2011 and Cam Newton’s one season of dominance at Auburn in 2010.
Notable seasons that finished ahead of Bridgewater’s 2013 season included Andrew Luck in 2010, Russel Wilson in 2011, and Johnny Manziel when he took college football by storm in 2012.
While Nate Silver has a sterling reputation, this study is in no way meant to be predictive of future NFL success. While plenty of the quarterbacks listed with Bridgewater have had early NFL success, Sam Bradford, Pat White and Colt McCoy also had seasons crack the top 10.
The Vikings can only hope Bridgewater ends up as valuable to them as he was to Louisville.