6 reasons why the Vikings will be better than the Packers in 2020

The law of regression

Here’s a puzzling aspect of the Packers performance during the 2019 season. The team finished the campaign with an intimidating 13-3 record while outscoring all opponents by a slim margin of only 63 points.

That’s right, the average point differential of a Green Bay game in 2019 was 3.9 points. The Dallas Cowboys, who finished 8-8 last season, outscored teams by a total of 113 points.

Minnesota finished 10-6 last year and scored 104 more total points than their opponents. Now, this point differential alone is no guarantee that the Vikings will be better the Packers in 2020, but the disparity is telling.

Think of it this way. Minnesota won three fewer games than Green Bay in 2019 while scoring more points and allowing fewer points. It’s truly head-scratching.

Additionally, the 13-3 record Green Bay unexpectedly boasted is difficult to replicate. In fact, the New Orleans Saints are one of the only teams as of late to flaunt that record and come close to repeating something near it the following year.

The 2015 Arizona Cardinals finished 13-3 and then 7-8-1 in 2016. The 2017 Minnesota Vikings had a 13-3 record, only to follow it up with a frustrating 8-8 showing thereafter. The 2017 Philadelphia Eagles were 13-3 during their Super Bowl run and then 9-7 in 2018. And then the Los Angeles Rams had a 13-3 mark in 2018, but they also dipped to 9-7 last season.

Does it feel more likely that the Packers will again finish 13-3 in 2020 or fall back to earth? The answer should be obvious.