What are the Vikings odds to land a top 10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft?

(Photo by Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)
(Photo by Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports) /

There’s a small chance that the Minnesota Vikings could be drafting in the top 10 in 2021.

For a team that had playoff aspirations heading into the 2020 NFL season, it’s incredibly disappointing to realize that the Minnesota Vikings will be done playing football for a while after Sunday’s matchup with the Detroit Lions.

The Vikings were eliminated from postseason contention last week when they were demolished by the New Orleans Saints. After Week 16, Minnesota’s main focus will now be on the 2021 offseason.

With their loss to the Saints, the Vikings are currently in possession of the No. 13 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. But that slot could improve for Minnesota depending on what happens this weekend during the final week of the regular season.

What is the best 2021 draft pick the Minnesota Vikings can end up with?

According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, the Vikings’ first-round pick in 2021 can fall anywhere between the No. 9 slot and the No. 15 slot depending on what happens in Week 17. Walder also shared Minnesota’s current probability to land each of these selections and you can find these numbers below.

  • No. 9 – Less than 1 percent
  • No. 10 – 1 percent
  • No. 11 – 6 percent
  • No. 12 – 11 percent
  • No. 13 – 32 percent
  • No. 14 – 43 percent
  • No. 15 – 6 percent

So according to these odds, the Vikings have a 75 percent chance to finish the season with either the No. 13 or the No. 14 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Anything lower or higher than these two selections seems pretty unlikely.

At the same time, anything is possible and this is especially the case this year. If Minnesota loses to the Lions on Sunday, then they would finish the season with a disappointing 6-10 record.

Some might think a record like that would put the Vikings in the driver’s seat for a top 10 draft pick in 2021. But there is a chance that nine teams could finish the year with a 6-10 record, including Minnesota.

If this ends up happening, then the Vikings won’t be ending up with the No. 10 or No. 9 selection due to strength of schedule tiebreakers. In order for Minnesota to actually land a top 10 pick in the 2021 draft, they would have to lose to Detroit and hope for a whole lot of shenanigans to go down.

The good news for the Vikings though is that even if they don’t land a top 10 pick in next year’s draft, they still have a great chance to select a franchise-altering prospect. A number of very talented players have been drafted between picks 11 and 15 during the last decade including Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt, Earl Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., and Deshaun Watson.

If the guy Minnesota winds up selecting in the 2021 draft turns out to be as talented as any of these five players, then it could result in the team quickly getting back on track next season.