Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers best bets for Week 1

(Photo by Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)
(Photo by Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports) /

What are the best bets for the highly anticipated NFC North battle between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers on Sunday?

Back in 2020, the Minnesota Vikings were handed a Week 1 loss from Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. However, this was a game that wasn’t played in front of a crowd due to COVID-19 restrictions.

When the stands are filled inside U.S. Bank Stadium, the Vikings have a clear advantage over their opponent. This hasn’t been any different in their matchups with the Packers as Minnesota is 4-1 against their NFC North rival since 2016 in home games with fans in attendance.

Cheering fans should come in handy for the Vikings again on Sunday when they attempt to beat Green Bay and get new head coach Kevin O’Connell his first-ever win with the franchise.

Best bets for Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers in Week 1

Best Bet No. 1:

  • OVER 46.5 total points (odds via FanDuel)

The first month of the season is typically when we see teams put up a bunch of points since it’s usually when their rosters are the healthiest, and things like the weather have less of an impact. Expect this trend to continue on Sunday in the Twin Cities.

In September home games during the last two seasons, Minnesota and their opponents averaged a combined 62 points per matchup. The Packers in September road games since 2020 have been similar as their contests have averaged 61 combined points in this time period.

Barring an injury to a star player on either team’s roster, it would be very shocking if this game didn’t hit the over for total points.

Best Bet No. 2:

  • Adam Thielen any time touchdown scorer (+180)

Over the last few seasons, Adam Thielen has basically been the second-coming of Cris Carter when it comes to scoring touchdowns. Since 2019, Thielen has accumulated 31 touchdown catches in 38 games, the fourth most among NFL receivers in the last three seasons.

To help his case even more, the Vikings pass-catcher has found the end zone four times in his last four meetings against Green Bay in matchups inside U.S. Bank Stadium. With a more pass-centric offensive scheme expected to be in place now for Minnesota, betting on Thielen scoring his first touchdown of the season on Sunday seems like an easy way to make money.

Best Bet No. 3:

  • Vikings (+1.5 points) over the Packers

With this being a divisional matchup, some might believe Green Bay could still cover the spread even if they lose as long as the losing margin is only one point. However, of the 60 times these two teams have met on Minnesota’s home field, only one matchup was decided by less than two points. So the likelihood of this happening on Sunday is extremely slim.

Combine this with what we mentioned earlier about the Vikings being 4-1 inside U.S. Bank Stadium against the Packers with fans in attendance, that one loss for Minnesota was in a matchup where Dalvin Cook was unable to play due to an injury. Cook is fully healthy for Sunday and so is the entire starting offense for the Vikings.

We should still expect the game to be close, but Minnesota leaving their home field with a victory over Green Bay this weekend feels like something that’s likely going to happen.

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