Right after last year's playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell promised a general shift toward being a more physical football team. That was in large part paid off with a reconstruction of the interior offensive line.
The last two games of last season fully exposed a shortcoming the Vikings' offense had all of last season. The running game was not good in short-yardage situations.
While the aforementioned interior of the offensive line was a huge factor in that, Aaron Jones was also not an effective short-yardage runner, and some deeper metrics regarding expected rushing yards were not kind to him.
The San Francisco 49ers made running back Jordan Mason available to trade for in March, and the Vikings were pretty surprisingly the team to acquire him. They also signed him to a two-year contract extension.
Fantasy prediction pays off offseason shift for the Minnesota Vikings
In fantasy football terms, this year, while it's not a death knell for his value, Mason's presence absolutely hurts Jones. Volume helped drive Jones to his production last year, and he's lined up to lose a notable chunk to Mason.
As Week 1 approaches, PFF's Nathan Jahnke has a new set of five bold fantasy predictions for 2025. One of them involved the Vikings' running back situation.
"Jordan Mason scores more fantasy points than Aaron Jones."
Jahnke noted how, during much of his time with the Green Bay Packers before signing with the Vikings in 2024, Jones had been part of a backfield committee. His age (30; 31 in December) and nagging injuries over the past two seasons add layers to Mason having a large role.
Jahnke then landed on the bottom line that comfortably aligns with his prediction, along with a mention of additional upside for Mason in a specific situation.
"A likely early-down and goal-line role for Mason would give him fantasy upside, especially in touchdown-heavy formats. If Jones stays healthy, Mason should still handle a solid share of the rushing workload.
If Jones misses time, Mason could slide into a featured role similar to his stint as San Francisco’s starter—minus third downs, which would likely go to C.J. Ham in pass protection. Ty Chandler profiles as Mason’s backup, but the Vikings would likely ride Mason as far as he can go in the event of an injury."
Back in March, the Vikings made no secret that they had plans for Mason by giving him some contract security upon acquiring him.
The idea that he'll post more fantasy points than Jones this year is not incredibly bold, but it would be the natural payoff of what has been easy to see coming all offseason.