The Minnesota Vikings will see a familiar face as Kirk Cousins returns to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday as a member of the Atlanta Falcons. The former Vikings signal-caller signed a four-year, $180 million contract with Atlanta last spring but things look much different than many believed they would when the schedule was released in May.
The Vikings are 10-2 powered by a veteran stop gap Sam Darnold. Using the money that Cousins left behind, they’ve added pieces to boast the best defense in the NFL while fielding an offense that ranks in the top 10 in scoring.
The grass hasn’t been as green for Cousins in Atlanta. The Falcons selected Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in last April’s NFL Draft, and a recent stretch of poor play has some wondering if Cousins’s job is on the line over the final weeks of the season.
This and the way the crowd will react to Cousins are storylines to watch but here are three bold predictions for when the Falcons clash with the Vikings on Sunday afternoon.
Minnesota Vikings predictions for Week 14 vs. the Atlanta Falcons
1. Kirk Cousins will throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns
Throughout his tenure in Minnesota, Sunday’s game was known as a smash spot for Cousins. His back is against the wall. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown in three weeks. It’s a Sunday noon home game in front of a sold-out crowd at U.S. Bank Stadium.
It’s the type of game where Cousins endeared himself as “The Noon Nightmare” and could play itself out again. Stephon Gilmore is out with a hamstring injury, and Fabian Moreau was a liability playing across from Shaq Griffin last week. With Drake London serving as a capable target, the Vikings may not have anyone to truly match up and could be a key target if Cousins can get him the ball.
That last part is an interesting caveat. Cousins looked like the player he was with the Vikings, leading Atlanta to a 6-3 start, but he leads the league with 13 interceptions after a three-game losing streak.
Rumors about the health of Cousins have started to emerge as he recovers from a torn Achilles and his inability to move is amplified going against Brian Flores’s defense and its 27 percent pressure rate – the fourth-highest clip in the NFL.
But this is Cousins, who always seemed to have a massive performance just about the time everyone is writing him off. The hallmark of 9-8 seasons in Minnesota, Cousins could flame a shorthanded Vikings defense that looked sleepy against Kyler Murray and Trey McBride last week.
2. Justin Jefferson will go for 150 yards and a touchdown
The last two weeks have been interesting for Jefferson, who was held to two catches for two catches for 27 yards in a Week 12 win over the Chicago Bears and had a quiet first half in last week’s win over the Arizona Cardinals. But while Jefferson hasn’t put up massive numbers, he could fill that void against the Falcons.
It starts up front where Atlanta’s defense has failed to rush the passer. The Falcons rank last in the NFL with 15 sacks, and it’s six fewer than the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Carolina Panthers, who are tied for the second-fewest with 21. Atlanta has also struggled to even get near the passer, ranking 27th with an 18.9 percent pressure rate.
Because the Falcons struggle at getting pressure, it may result in adjusting their 22.5 percent blitz rate. This could play into the hands of the Vikings because Sam Darnold has a 134.3 passer rating and 85.1 Pro Football Focus grade against the blitz this season, but it also benefits Jefferson with one less defender dropping into coverage.
Mix in the fact that the Falcons play the fourth-highest rate of zone coverage, and Jefferson has 2.28 yards per route run against zone this season, and it could break the Vikings’ star out of his “slump.”
3. If active, Will Reichard will hit his first game-winning field goal
We should probably pour one out for Parker Romo here, as he’s been fantastic over the past month. But the Vikings possibly won’t just be celebrating the return of Cousins on Sunday, they will potentially be celebrating the return of their “cold-blooded sniper.”
Will Reichard is on the verge of returning from a quad injury that landed him on injured reserve after he was able to get in a full practice throughout the past week.
Reichard didn’t miss a kick until he was injured in the Week 9 win over the Indianapolis Colts, but he hasn’t had the opportunity for a game-winner (even though O’Connell kicked around the idea of going for a 68-yard field goal in a Week 7 loss to the Detroit Lions).
Maybe this would be a storybook ending considering Reichard would be returning from injury. But the elements are there. The Vikings routinely play close games. Cousins was usually the quarterback for most of those games. Nine of Atlanta’s games this season have been decided by one possession and a spiteful Cousins – despite his comments to the media this week – may make him more resilient than a horror movie villain.
All of this could result in Reichard attempting the first game-winner of his professional career that allows the Vikings to spoil Cousins’ return to Minnesota.
Prediction: Vikings win 27-24