With three weeks to go, everything is in front of the Minnesota Vikings. At 12-2, they control their destiny for home-field advantage in the NFC.
Sam Darnold looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and the defense has been one of the league’s top units. Adversity has only galvanized the Vikings, and a trip to the Super Bowl seems like a realistic possibility.
That is until the Vikings pull up to Lumen Field on Sunday.
The Vikings will travel to face the Seattle Seahawks in a place where they have a 1-6 record and haven’t won since 2006. Each game has its own specific horror story, and it would only be fitting if Sunday’s game fell in line with a long list of obscenity-filled letdowns the Vikings have encountered over the years.
Sunday’s game is anything but predictable. But here are three bold predictions for when the Vikings try to complete the first leg toward earning home-field advantage.
Bold Minnesota Vikings predictions for Week 16 vs. the Seattle Seahawks
1. The Vikings will have at least five sacks against the Seahawks
One of the things in the Vikings’ favor is their matchup against Seattle’s offensive line. Seattle ranks 23rd in Pro Football Focus’s pass-blocking grades entering Sunday’s game, and they’ve had difficulty keeping Geno Smith upright.
The Seahawks rank tied for third in the NFL with 47 sacks allowed this season. By comparison, only the Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears have allowed more, with a league-high 58 sacks this season.
Protecting the quarterback has been one issue but it could be amplified on Sunday. Smith is practicing but is dealing with a knee injury that could limit his mobility.
If he’s less than 100 percent or gets knocked out of the game early, Sam Howell will take over, adding another advantage for the Vikings' defense.
Howell did not look good in last week’s loss to the Green Bay Packers, and his results are usually confined to taking snaps or throwing an interception. Brian Flores is likely to trust his defense, which could lead to whoever plays quarterback for the Seahawks ending up on their back.
2. The Seahawks will be held under 100 yards rushing
Fans have become concerned about the Vikings’ run defense over the past few weeks and for good reason. With two run-heavy teams in Green Bay and Detroit coming up in the next two weeks, Sunday’s game against Seattle will be a test.
But while the Vikings have had issues against the run, it’s unknown whether Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is willing to take advantage.
The Seahawks aren’t the same run-heavy team they were under Pete Carroll. Seattle ranks 29th with 329 rushing attempts on the season. The Seahawks also haven’t been efficient when running the ball. They are tied for 21st with 4.1 yards per carry and rank 28th in rushing yards per game.
Choosing to run slow-developing routes with a bad offensive line is a choice but it may be a better way to attack the Vikings.
While Minnesota has struggled since Ivan Pace Jr. was injured in a win over the Chicago Bears, their 105.2 rushing yards allowed per game would be a top-10 rushing defense. The Vikings also rank first on the season with -0.16 expected points added per rushing attempt this season.
While the Vikings will have to go one more game without Pace, their defense hasn’t been catastrophic since he went down. With Kenneth Walker III banged up, it could help Minnesota corral the run before facing its biggest test in the next two weeks.
3. Seattle’s defensive line will combine for double-digit pressures
The biggest key to Sunday’s game will be containing the Seahawks' interior defensive line. Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, and Byron Murphy II have combined for 96 pressures between them, and The Athletic’s Alec Lewis noted that the Vikings' interior offensive line has allowed a league-high 10.3 percent pressure rate this season.
While it’s on Blake Brandel, Garrett Bradbury, and Dalton Risner to slow the Seahawks down, it will be just as important for Darnold to handle the pressure. If Seattle’s interior can create pressure, they won’t have to blitz, negating Darnold’s league-high 134.8 passer rating against the blitz this season.
Darnold has been able to handle non-blitzing situations with a 94.7 passer rating but it could leave an extra defender in coverage. With Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen and Julian Love in the secondary, that could make it difficult for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and keep the door open for the upset on Sunday.
Prediction: Vikings win 24-17