The Minnesota Vikings return to the playoffs for the second time in the past three seasons but they’ll look for their first playoff win since 2019 when they battle the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night.
The wild card matchup has been moved to Glendale, Arizona due to the wildfires in Southern California. While a neutral field helps the Vikings, the game also comes against a Rams team that defeated the Vikings 30-20 back in Week 8.
There are several matchups to consider when trying to pick a winner and each one has a different dynamic to the game. In this article, we’ll make three bold predictions to see whether the Rams or the Vikings will come out on top and become one step closer to reaching the Super Bowl.
Minnesota Vikings predictions for Wild Card weekend vs. the Los Angeles Rams
1. Puka Nacua will still be a problem for Brian Flores’s defense
Nacua wasn’t expected to play for the Rams in the previous meeting but an 11th-hour activation from a knee injury caused major problems for the Vikings defense. Nacua was targeted three times on the opening drive and caught seven passes for 106 yards and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores admitted that he was left “scrambling” to make adjustments as the game went on.
But Nacua’s production wasn’t an outlier. The second-year receiver has the highest target share in the NFL since Week 8 at 40 percent and hit another gear with 3.71 yards per route run over the Rams final three meaningful games (Week 15 at SF, Week 16 at NYJ, Week 17 at ARI).
The Vikings may try to stop Nacua but the best plan of attack is to stop what’s around him. While Nacua flamed the Vikings, Matthew Stafford was only pressured on 23.5 percent of his dropbacks according to PFF and ESPN analytics had an even lower number at 8.8 percent.
If the Vikings can get to Stafford, it could slow the Rams down but Nacua appears ready to get his even if the Rams are too reliant on him.
2. Sam Darnold will be pressured on 50 percent of his dropbacks
Speaking of pressure, this is not an encouraging matchup for the Vikings’ offensive line. The Vikings have done better protecting Sam Darnold – especially since Dalton Risner entered the starting lineup – but all of the goodwill vanished when they allowed Darnold to be pressured on 48.9 percent of his dropbacks in last week’s loss to the Detroit Lions.
Many will worry about the interior of the offensive line as Braden Fiske tallied 8.5 sacks in his rookie season but the issue against the Lions was on the left side of the offensive line where Cam Robinson and Blake Brandel combined for 17 of the Vikings’ 23 pressures allowed.
This is a problem as Jared Verse ranks fourth in the NFL with 70 pressures and Byron Young has created 44 pressures this season. With Robinson and Brandel struggling, it could cause the Rams to attack the Vikings’ weakness without blitzing and could create another tough day for Darnold.
3. Kevin O’Connell will be hyper-aggressive on fourth down
One of the keys for the Vikings last week was to play their game in front of a hostile Detroit crowd. That didn’t happen as O’Connell went for it on fourth down three times – including twice inside the 10-yard line – in a 31-9 loss to the Lions.
If last week seemed uncharacteristic, you’re right. The Vikings finished the season with the fewest fourth-down conversion attempts (13) in the NFL and there are several reasons why O’Connell could adopt a hyper-aggressive approach in the playoffs including the struggles of Will Reichard.
Reichard was automatic to begin the season, making his first 34 kicks to open the season. But Reichard’s first miss came with a quad injury in Week 9 against the Indianapolis Colts and he’s gone 10-of-14 on field goals – although 15-of-15 on extra points – since returning.
The rough stretch will trigger PTSD among Vikings fans who still remember Blair Walsh and Gary Anderson’s fatal misses in the playoffs. But it could seep into the mind of O’Connell, who could consider Reichard’s recent performance in some key fourth-down conversions.
The decision could be a pivotal moment in a game that many expect the Vikings to win and it could send a 14-win season down the drain.
Prediction: Rams win 24-21