The Minnesota Vikings traded up from No. 23 to No. 17 overall to take Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner in the 2024 NFL Draft, giving up a 2024 fifth-round pick as well as third and fourth-round picks in this year's draft to do so. The draft capital investment to move up six spots was notable and arguably excessive.
Turner suited up for 16 games as a rookie, but he played just 300 defensive snaps with three sacks. With what Jonathan Greenard (12 sacks) and Andrew Van Ginkel (11.5 sacks) did, it was just hard for Turner to earn significant playing time.
Of course, we live in a world where people like to push players into draft bust territory one year in. It's foolish, but it happens. At minimum, some Vikings fans surely have some level of concern about Turner.
NFC evaluator firmly sets aside any possible concern about Minnesota Vikings OLB Dallas Turner
Alec Lewis of The Athletic (subscription required) rounded up some Vikings insight from last week at the NFL Combine. He asked an NFC evaluator about Turner.
"One NFC evaluator, whose team considered drafting edge rusher Dallas Turner last year, laughed when asked about having any concerns following Turner’s quiet rookie season. 'None at all,' they said. 'Think of him like Nolan Smith.'
The comparison arose in other conversations about Turner as well. Both Smith and Turner possess elite athletic traits. They were drafted young. They came from high-end programs in the Southeastern Conference, and neither had any character-related concerns. It’s fascinating to assess their rookie seasons side by side."
Lewis posted a chart comparing Turner's rookie season to Nolan Smith's (Smith was drafted 30th overall in the 2023 draft by the Philadelphia Eagles). Smith actually played over 100 fewer defensive snaps as a rookie than Turner did (188), with only one sack.
Turner's pass rush win rate was better (6.3 percent to 5.6 percent), while Smith had the edge in pressure rate (9.4 percent to 8.8 percent). Their ages when they were drafted were a year apart, but Smith is actually a little more than two years older than Turner.
Last season, in his second season, of course, Smith had 6.5 sacks during the regular season with four more during Philadelphia's postseason run. The evaluator Lewis talked to thinks Turner's second season could be similar, as "one team source expects Turner to arrive in exceptional condition for spring and summer workouts, hungry to prove he can contribute beyond his 300 snaps in 2024."
There is some onus on Minnesota's coaching staff to develop Turner, as Lewis noted, with secondary pass rush moves a critical step for any young edge rusher. But a Smith-like second-year breakthrough is within the realm of possibilities.