If Justin Jefferson isn't the best wide receiver in the NFL, he's right there in the conversation. He recently celebrated his 26th birthday (June 16), and he has the most receiving yards before that age in NFL history (7,432). His average of 96.5 receiving yards per game so far in his career is the best in league history (minimum 50 games played).
It's amazing to look back to the start of Jefferson's career and realize he didn't start his first game until Week 3 of his rookie season in 2020. That breakout performance against the Tennessee Titans (seven catches for 175 yards and a touchdown) is certainly etched in the memory of Vikings' fans as a tease of what was to come. Fantasy football managers also took notice, running to the waiver wire in hopes of being able to add him or ready to blow their remaining FAAB dollar budget to add him. Since then, he has been one of the first wide receivers off the board in fantasy drafts.
Jefferson's lowest finish in a season he played more than 10 games (full PPR scoring) is WR6, as a rookie. He missed seven games in 2023, and he was WR5 by fantasy points per game that year.
The only concern attached to Jefferson in fantasy circles heading into 2025 is a big one. All of the praise Jefferson has for his new quarterback right now will mean nothing if J.J. McCarthy can't get it done. Some analysts might say Jefferson should be avoided at his current ADP (No. 3 overall), with the uncertainty about McCarthy as the driving force.
A fantasy football analyst shed some light on why Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is quarterback-proof.
Sports Illustrated fantasy football analyst Michael Fabiano recently offered up 20 stats and trends fantasy managers should know before their 2025 drafts. On the trend side, Fabiano outlined Jefferson's career from a fantasy points per game perspective.
"Justin Jefferson averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game, 19.4 points per game and 21.7 points per game in his first three NFL seasons with Kirk Cousins under center. In 2023, he averaged 21.8 points in the five games he played with Cousins. In the other four games he played that season, Jefferson averaged 18.6 points … the quarterbacks throwing him the ball in those games were backups like Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall."
"In 2024, Jefferson averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game with another quarterback, Sam Darnold, under center. In his previous four seasons with at least 11 starts, Darnold’s best wide receiver from a fantasy perspective was DJ Moore, who averaged 14 points per game in 2021. What does this all mean for 2025 fantasy drafts? Jefferson has proven to be very quarterback proof, so don’t downgrade him with J.J. McCarthy taking over the offense."
What Jefferson did when he returned to action in 2023, with Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall under center, showed how quarterback-proof he is as the Vikings turned the page from Kirk Cousins in 2024. Then he got it done with Sam Darnold under center last year, finishing as the WR2 in full PPR.
Last year, fantasy managers and analysts who notably downgraded Jefferson based on an uncertain quarterback situation (or Darnold ultimately being the guy) ended up being wrong.
While each season has to be evaluated as its own entity, with regard for changed circumstances that could impact someone's fantasy value, the sample size is large enough to say Jefferson should not be knocked down anyone's cheat sheet based on who his quarterback is.