The Minnesota Vikings had originally planned to use Sam Darnold as a stopgap for J.J. McCarthy last season. But Darnold played so well, the Vikings could bring him back in 2025. While bringing Darnold back has its benefits, there are also right and wrong ways to go about it including a contract projection by ESPN’s Benjamin Solak.
Solak predicted that he believes the Vikings will extend Darnold this offseason and will do so to the tune of a four-year, $160 million contract similar to the one the New York Giants gave Daniel Jones after the 2022 season.
“I really, truly believe the Vikings will extend Darnold. They have the room for something in the Daniel Jones neighborhood – four years, $160 million is probably optimal if they can get Darnold to sign that before another team in the free market offers him a whale of a deal. Depending on the size of the contract, they’ll either keep McCarthy or quietly look to trade him ahead of a bad quarterback draft class.”
Long-term commitment isn’t a great idea for the Minnesota Vikings or Sam Darnold
There’s a lot to unpack here with Solak’s prediction. The first is the framework of Jones’s deal with the Giants. Jones earned the long-term commitment from the Giants after defeating the Vikings in a 2022 Wild Card game and with his impending free agency, New York signed him to what turned out to be an ill-fated deal.
After a strong first season under Brian Daboll, Jones reverted to the draft bust he’s become out of the 2019 NFL Draft, leading the Giants to a 3-13 record while throwing 10 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 16 games. The Giants benched and released Jones and New York is on the hook for $47.1 million in dead money in 2024 and $22.2 million in 2025 while Jones signed with the Vikings late last season.
It’s important to think about considering Darnold’s career path. Both Darnold and Jones were highly-regarded picks coming into the league but both fell largely short of expectations. While Jones was propped up by Daboll, Darnold was propped up by Kevin O’Connell in his career year ahead of a big payday in free agency.
This doesn’t mean that Darnold can’t return to Minnesota under any circumstance but a long-term deal seems damaging – especially if he doesn’t play at the same level he did last season. Most signs point to McCarthy as the quarterback of the future and if the Vikings are dealing with Darnold’s large salary or the sum of dead money that would come with a release, it could hinder their ability to build around him.
It also would make more sense for the Vikings to franchise tag Darnold, letting him play under the $41.3 million estimated price tag and giving themselves an out if Darnold stumbles or McCarthy beats him out next season.
It’s one of many wild scenarios that could be floated out over the next several weeks but Darnold’s tenure with the Vikings needs to stay in the short term – even if he returns in 2025.