Heading into his third season with the Minnesota Vikings, 23-year-old quarterback J.J. McCarthy is already entering what might be the most important summer of his young NFL career.
Selected by the Vikings in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, McCarthy is barely halfway through his rookie contract, and people are already stamping him with a bust label made of permanent ink.
But in the age of TikTok, instant gratification, and an entire generation having the attention span of a fly, we probably shouldn't be too surprised that McCarthy hasn't been given the luxury of patience when it comes to his development.
Sports Illustrated's Michael Rosenberg recently wrote about Minnesota's young quarterback and how his sample size in the NFL still isn't big enough to come up with a full assessment for him, even after he played poorly in 2025.
"He played 10 games and threw 243 passes. Yes, he was mostly bad. But 10 games and 243 passes are a small sample size, and in McCarthy’s case, they are actually four minuscule sample sizes: He started two games; missed the next five with a high ankle sprain; returned for four games; missed one because of a concussion; started three more; missed one with a hand injury; and then started the season finale.
How many quarterbacks were good in their first 10 games and 243 passes?
No need for the Minnesota Vikings to give up on QB J.J. McCarthy yet
Rosenberg continued by sharing the stats from all six quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft after their first 243 passes, including McCarthy, and it definitely helped put things in perspective.
"Here are the numbers for every quarterback taken in the first round of his 2024 draft class through the game in which they threw their 243rd pass:
- Caleb Williams (No. 1 pick): 1,665 yards, 9 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 83.0 passer rating
- Jayden Daniels (No. 2 pick): 2,147 yards, 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 101.8 passer rating
- Drake Maye (No. 3 pick): 1,696 yards, 10 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 85.7 passer rating
- Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8 pick): 1,943 yards, 7 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 79.8 passer rating
- McCarthy (No. 10 pick): 1,632 yards, 11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 72.6 passer rating
- Bo Nix (No. 12 pick): 1,530 yards, 8 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 81.4 passer rating
Other than Daniels, who performed like a star right away, there is not a whole lot of difference there.
Stats don’t say everything, of course. One could reasonably argue that McCarthy had the best circumstances of the six and still had the worst numbers (and the worst tape). But 243 passes are not enough data."
This might be difficult for some to believe, but two things can actually be true at the exact same time.
We already know it's true that McCarthy was not good in his 10 games with the Vikings last season. No one is arguing against that.
But, it can also be true that (brace yourselves...) he went through the typical first-year start hiccups that many great and above-average NFL quarterbacks have experienced in their careers, and he still has a great chance to reach his full potential.
Now, will that potential be met with him in a Minnesota uniform?
That's a question that still needs an answer, and it's absolutely possible that he might need to follow the path forged by Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield most recently and join another team to reach his highest level of success.
If the Vikings and their fans want that success to be achieved with McCarthy wearing a purple and gold jersey, then all they have to do is be prepared to possibly wait longer than the franchise has ever had for a young quarterback to fully develop.
Easy enough, right?
Add us as a preferred source on Google