Kevin O'Connell trotted Will Reichard out for a 29-yard field goal from Miami's 11 late in the fourth quarter, and the decision said plenty about how the Minnesota Vikings coach wanted this game decided.
With Justin Jefferson's Week 4 absence already limiting the offense and the Vikings' offensive line injuries piling up, O'Connell chose three points and a 15-10 lead instead of another offensive snap.
The boos were loud. Minnesota had just spent more than eight minutes marching 60 yards without finishing the job, another chapter in Minnesota's ugly offensive showing.
The Vikings finished 0-for-3 in the red zone, so the crowd wasn't exactly being unreasonable in wanting O'Connell to give his offense one more chance.
Miami had converted only 2 of 9 third downs, Malik Willis finished with 85 passing yards, and Brian Flores' defense had allowed only one touchdown. The field goal changed Miami's assignment from needing three points to needing seven.
Given how the afternoon had unfolded, O'Connell was effectively betting that Flores had a better chance of producing one more stop than his offense had of finishing another drive.
Kevin O'Connell put the Vikings game on Brian Flores' defense
4th-and-5 is a much different decision than, say, 4th-and-2. Murray's third-down completion to Aaron Jones gained only three yards, leaving Minnesota five yards short of a first down.
Earlier on the same drive, O'Connell had faced a much more manageable 4th-and-1 and trusted Jones to convert with a 3-yard run.
The distance made the field goal a reasonable choice, though staying aggressive wasn't out of the question. Murray had finally found rhythm with T.J. Hockenson, and a conversion would've let Minnesota keep draining the clock and build a two-score lead.
A failed attempt would've handed Miami the ball deep in its own territory, but the Dolphins would've needed only a field goal to take the lead.
Data analytics platform Innerpulse has now graded O'Connell's 4th-down decisions through Week 4, and its model backs the Miami choice.
On 4th-and-5 from the Dolphins' 11 with 6:43 remaining and Minnesota leading by two, its data identified the field goal as the preferred call.
Its updated data has O'Connell going for it on 2 of 5 clear go situations this season and 39 of 80 during his Vikings tenure, but this wasn't a case where his cautious tendency cost Minnesota win probability. The model says taking the three points was the right decision.
Against Miami, O'Connell's bet paid off immediately. Willis took over at his 18, Miami gained two yards, and the Dolphins punted 53 seconds later.
Minnesota then possessed the ball for the final 5:41. A stronger offense won't make that five-point cushion nearly as friendly, especially if the Vikings keep reaching scoring territory without reaching the end zone.
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