It's safe to assume that nobody on the Minnesota Vikings was happier to see Kirk Cousins return than Justin Jefferson. Jefferson had been on the verge of crashing out after a year and a half of poor quarterback play, and Cousins, who was acquired in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders on Tuesday, should be able to get him the ball and help him make an impact in the Vikings' offense.
Aside from their previous chemistry, however, another change could make Jefferson even happier to see Cousins.
One of the biggest struggles in the Vikings' offense has been their ability to throw in the middle of the field, and it’s an area where Jefferson has lived since Kevin O’Connell was hired as head coach in 2022.
With Cousins’ accuracy a key reason the Vikings made the trade, Jefferson should see more action, and it could return a significant staple to Minnesota’s playbook as they welcome Cousins back under center.
Kirk Cousins’s return could restore the Minnesota Vikings’ passing game over the middle
Throwing over the middle is something O’Connell has done frequently as a play-caller since he became the head coach of the Vikings. Typically using a “Dagger” concept, Jefferson comes off the line straight and then turns toward the middle of the field. With a “clear out” vertical route in the slot, Jefferson finds open space, and the Vikings target him by throwing into tight windows or over the top of linebackers to create explosive plays downfield.
During his previous stint in Minnesota, Cousins was a master of this concept. According to Pro Football Focus, Cousins completed 73.8 percent (284 of 378) of his passes over the middle and beyond the line of scrimmage, accounting for 3,379 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
When Cousins left to sign with the Atlanta Falcons after the 2023 season, O’Connell successfully identified Sam Darnold, who completed 72.7 percent of his passes (155 of 213) for 2,150 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions during the 2024 campaign. But like many things, when Darnold left for the Seattle Seahawks, that efficiency over the middle was one of the things the Vikings lost by letting him walk.
J.J. McCarthy was supposed to take the reins from there, but he completed just 47 of 71 passes (66.1%) over the middle with four touchdowns and six interceptions during the 2025 season. Things got so bad for McCarthy that The Athletic’s Alec Lewis reported the Vikings took out most of their concepts over the middle when simplifying the offense late in the season, and it may have been a key reason they were willing to move on and trade him to the New York Giants.
While Kyler Murray completed 82.6 percent of his passes over the middle this season, 30 of his 46 attempts were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Those led to modest numbers of 438 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, and were a key reason why the Vikings may have chosen to move on anyway if Murray hadn’t suffered a hamstring injury during the Week 8 loss to the Detroit Lions.
Overall, Vikings quarterbacks have completed 70.8 percent (163 of 230) passes over the middle since Cousins left. While they threw for 1,877 yards and eight touchdowns, they also threw a whopping 15 interceptions, which neutered Minnesota’s offense and, more specifically, Jefferson’s impact.
Justin Jefferson will benefit from Cousins’ ability to attack the middle of the field
While Dagger is a key concept in the offense, Jefferson has made a lot of his money catching passes over the middle, regardless of the route he’s running.
In the two years with Cousins at quarterback, Jefferson caught 71 passes for 1,178 yards and six touchdowns on 96 targets. Those numbers could have been bigger if he hadn't suffered a hamstring injury and Cousins hadn't torn his Achilles during the 2023 season, which limited their opportunities to make big plays.
In addition, Cousins connected with Jefferson for 2,375 yards on in-breaking routes from 2020 to 2023, according to Next Gen Stats (via Lewis on X). Cousins also completed 70.7 percent of his passes to Jefferson on those routes, while all other quarterbacks have completed 65.1 percent.
This is important considering that Jefferson has caught 161 passes for 2,669 yards and 12 touchdowns on 221 targets over the middle since O’Connell was hired in 2022. If those numbers don’t look large enough, they also account for 35 percent of Jefferson’s targets, 38 percent of his receptions, 41 percent of his touchdowns, and 45 percent of his yardage during that timeframe.
With that in mind, Jefferson’s numbers have gone down each season since 2024 (49 catches, 825 yards, 5 TDs), with just eight catches for 124 yards and no touchdowns on 12 targets this season. Another hamstring injury suffered in a Week 3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t help those numbers, but Murray also showed a reluctance to make the throws necessary to boost those stats, as shown by the Instagram account “Priority Tape.”
Cousins’s ability to layer passes over linebackers and throw into tight windows should bring over-the-middle concepts back to the passing attack. If that happens, Jefferson would be the prime beneficiary and put up the numbers Vikings fans are accustomed to seeing.
For an offense that needs to do just enough to complement its defense, this could be a big development and make Jefferson a lot happier than he’s been in recent weeks.
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