Kyler Murray will make the start for the Minnesota Vikings against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3, and in the eyes of some Vikings fans, there is no margin for error.
After watching Carson Wentz lead the Vikings to two straight wins, that section of the fan base believes the Vikings should ride the hot hand until he cools off. But Murray’s best chance to keep his job may be to take care of the football.
According to The Athletic’s Alec Lewis, the Vikings have a 37-4 record when they either break even or have an advantage in turnovers since Kevin O’Connell was hired in 2022.
It’s also something that O’Connell mentioned during Monday’s press conference as he handed the keys over to Murray ahead of next week.
“When we don’t do things to self-inflict against our chances of winning games (like committing turnovers), we win a lot of them. And it might not be an aesthetically beautiful thing, but we’re going to find a way as long as we stay the course.”
There are a lot of things the Vikings are expecting Murray to do. But taking care of the ball is key, and it could help Murray silence his critics as he returns to the starting job.
Kyler Murray’s ball security is why he deserves to start for the Vikings
Murray brought a lot of excitement to the Vikings offense thanks to his playmaking ability and potential impact in the running game. But the biggest reason why he was brought in may have been his tendency to take care of the football.
Murray has a career 2.1 percent interception rate over his eight years in the NFL and has logged a rate under two percent in three of the past four seasons before coming to Minnesota.
Murray has performed even better under PFF’s turnover-worthy play metric, posting a 2.6 percent rate for his career and ranking second among 43 qualifying quarterbacks with a 1.4 percent rate last season.
While Murray’s number last season came in just 195 dropbacks before he suffered a foot injury, it’s a marked improvement over the Vikings’ other options on the roster.
J.J. McCarthy posted a 4.9 interception rate on 243 pass attempts last season. In addition to the 12 interceptions, McCarthy was also reckless with the football in general, ranking 35th among qualifiers with a 4.8 turnover-worthy play rate.
Those numbers may have been a key reason why Wentz was named the backup at the end of the preseason, as he’s posted an interception rate of 2.0 percent during his career and a turnover-worthy play rate of 3.5 percent.
But while he led the Vikings to a pair of wins in relief of Murray after he suffered a concussion in Week 1, he was also playing with fire.
Any Packer fan will mention that Wentz fumbled and threw an interception before both plays were wiped out by penalties during the Vikings’ go-ahead drive that ended with an Aaron Jones touchdown during the season opener.
Wentz also threw a pass into the chest of linebacker Devin Bush on the opening drive of the Vikings’ Week 2 win over the Chicago Bears, but Bush couldn’t haul it in due to the soggy conditions at Soldier Field.
As a result, Wentz posted a turnover-worthy play rate of 3.8 percent in his two appearances, which is the same number that he posted while ranking 30th among 43 qualifying quarterbacks a year ago.
Lewis also mentioned that the Vikings may have watered down the offense for Wentz to limit “fatal mistakes” by running the ball on 66.7 percent of early downs in Sunday’s win over the Bears.
While Wentz could improve upon his turnover-worthy play and interception rates, his recent career suggests regression is around the corner and could give Murray the runway needed beginning on Sunday.
Kyler Murray’s return could help the Vikings tack off.
The start to Murray’s career with the Vikings didn’t go as planned, as he lobbed an interception to Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon on his first pass attempt.
The concussion was also bad luck that kept him out of last week’s win over the Bears. But there’s a lot to like about Murray outside of taking care of the football.
The Vikings have catered their offense to Murray’s strengths this offseason, leaning on a revised running game and mixing in pistol formations early in the season.
Establishing chemistry with Justin Jefferson and the other receivers on the roster is also important, as Jefferson has caught 11 passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns over the first two games, but the rest of the Vikings' receivers have caught two passes for 21 yards – both by Addison.
Seeing Murray rip off a couple of runs on the ground and make plays downfield could be one way to win fans over. His matchup is also advantageous for a Buccaneers team that has made a habit of putting embattled quarterbacks over in the past year.
But even if Murray makes big plays, taking care of the ball is a must and could be how Murray takes hold of the starting job and hangs onto it for the rest of the season.
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