With Minnesota Vikings training camp now underway, we're close to a resolution of the quarterback battle between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy. No one really believes it's going to rage on all the way until the season starts, since head coach Kevin O'Connell knows he's got to decide who the starter is as soon as possible.
Barring something unforeseen, Murray will be the Vikings' Week 1 starting quarterback. Ideally, for the team and himself as he tries to get his career back on track, he holds the job all season and plays well.
This is where the McCarthy bobos, if there are any left, might say it's actually more beneficial to the Vikings if he wins the starting job. You know, because he's younger and under contract for 2027. That's where the argument ends, though.
Stat projection for Minnesota Vikings QB lands with a thud
Jordan Dajani of CBS Sports recently ranked the five new projected starting quarterbacks in the NFL by expected impact this season. Murray at No. 1 on the list is fairly easily expected, since passable play under center for just a few more games last season might've yielded a division title for the Vikings.
"The Vikings are another team hosting a quarterback battle, but it's fair to say the expectation is that former Arizona Cardinals signal-caller Kyler Murray wins the job.
CBS Sports' projections agree with this assessment, as they have J.J. McCarthy throwing one touchdown and one interception in 2026."
Dajani labeled Murray as the most boom-or-bust quarterback on his list, as the potential outcomes are definitely more wide-ranging than the others.
Dajani's list also came with a stat projection from the fantasy arm of CBS Sports. One part of Murray's projection certainly sticks out.
"CBS Sports' fantasy projected statline: 3,400 passing yards, 27 TDs, 21 INTs"
21 interceptions? The last quarterback to throw more than 18 interceptions in a season was Sam Howell, who threw a league-high 21 with the Washington Commanders in 2023. That's the only time in the last six seasons the NFL leader in interceptions thrown had more than 20 (or 17 for that matter).
Two quarterbacks have thrown 18 or more interceptions over that six-season span: Howell and Josh Allen (18) in 2023.
If Murray were throwing interceptions at a (presumably) league-high clip over any stretch of games this season, he'd probably be replaced by McCarthy (or Carson Wentz) before he could get to 21. So as cringe-inducing as that projection is for Vikings fans, it's also unrealistic on multiple fronts.
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