During the last month, no 2026 NFL Draft prospect has been mocked to the Minnesota Vikings more than Dillon Thieneman. According to MockDraftDatabase.com, Thieneman has been mocked to the Vikings in the first round of this year's NFL Draft 80 times in the last four weeks.
This trend is probably only going to continue after what ESPN's Matt Miller shared on Thursday about Minnesota's actual interest in the intriguing safety prospect.
"Safety Dillon Thieneman (Oregon) is the most mocked player to Minnesota, and for good reason. Word is the front office views him as a seamless replacement for veteran Harrison Smith."
Minnesota Vikings view Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman as "seamless replacement" for Harrison Smith
Describing a prospect's ability to replace a future Hall of Famer as "seamless" is certainly bold, especially if that prospect isn't even regarded by most as one of the top-15 players available in this year's NFL Draft.
What if Harrison Smith decides he wants to return to the Vikings for the 2026 season? Is Minnesota going to still spend its first-round pick on a safety who probably won't play much as a rookie?
The Vikings just went through this a few years ago with Lewis Cine, and it went terribly.
This isn't to say that Thieneman can't make more of an impact for Minnesota than Cine, especially since it's a very low bar to clear. But drafting a safety where the Vikings are currently slotted to pick (18th overall) or later in the first round doesn't have a good track record.
Not since 2014 has a safety who was selected with the No. 18 pick or later in the first round in the NFL Draft gone on to earn at least one Pro Bowl selection in their pro career. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who was drafted with the 21st overall pick in 2014 by the Green Bay Packers, is the last safety to accomplish this.
Of course, Smith was also selected in the first round later than the 18th overall pick, as Minnesota used the 29th selection in 2012 to draft him, and that, obviously, went on to turn out splendidly.
His success could be argued as an outlier, however, and that's up to the Vikings to figure out if they truly want to go up against recent history by selecting Thieneman in the first round later this month.