10 bold predictions for the Minnesota Vikings 2023 season

Prediction No. 2

Alexander Mattison will finish in the top five in rushing attempts

The running game is another area that underwent an overhaul this offseason, as Dalvin Cook is now a member of the New York Jets. Many were surprised when the Vikings decided to bring Alexander Mattison back during free agency, but the Vikings are hoping that Mattison can provide a more consistent presence on the ground than Cook did one year ago.

Cook had a solid season with the Vikings last year as he ran for 1,173 yards and eight touchdowns while being named to his fourth straight Pro Bowl. But while Cook helped many win their fantasy football league, it was his efficiency that hamstrung the Vikings offense.

According to Football Outsiders, Cook had a success rate (which is defined by how often a running back picks up half the yardage needed on a specific down) of 48 percent, which ranked 33rd among 42 qualifying running backs last season. He also ranked 33rd in that group in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), which measures the strength of the defenses he was playing.

While Cook was still able to rip off the highlight reel runs that he’s made throughout his career, he also provided plenty of negative ones as only the Jacksonville Jaguars ran for more runs of no gain or negative yardage on first down last season.

That inefficiency closed off a lot of O’Connell’s playbook, and it was a big reason why the Vikings ranked 27th in rushing attempts last season (404).

The hope is that Mattison can be more efficient on first down and allow O’Connell to be more creative on second and third down. If that happens, the Vikings could be set to run the ball more than they did a year ago, and with no real competition, Mattison could wind up becoming an unexpected bell-cow this season.