3 bold Minnesota Vikings predictions for Week 1 vs. the New York Giants

After an offseason of speculation, the Minnesota Vikings have finally made it to the 2024 season. The Vikings will open the year against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, but this year’s team will look a lot different than last year’s team.

With Sam Darnold at quarterback, Aaron Jones at running back and several new faces on defense, Sunday’s opener will serve as a big reveal as fans find out just how the Vikings will look this season.

This team is much less predictable than in years past, but we can still read tea leaves when it comes to the matchup with the Giants. In this article, we’ll make five bold predictions and see if Minnesota can walk out of New Jersey with their first win of the season.

Bold Minnesota Vikings predictions for Week 1 vs. the New York Giants

1. Aaron Jones will have a 20-yard running play and a rushing touchdown

One of the Vikings’ biggest weaknesses during Kevin O’Connell’s tenure has been the running game. While they ranked 29th with 91.4 rushing yards per game last season, the bigger issues have been finding explosive plays and consistency on the ground.

Dalvin Cook was able to create big plays with 12 designed runs of 15 yards or more in 2022, but he logged a 47.3 percent success rate – determined as runs where a player gets 40 percent of yards needed on first down, 60 percent of yards on second down and 100 percent of yards needed on third and fourth down.

Alexander Mattison attempted to improve the running game last season, but he logged a 45 percent success rate with seven designed runs over 15 yards. He also failed to score a rushing touchdown, making him the 12th player to not find the end zone with a minimum of 180 carries since the NFL-AFL merger in 1969.

While both were issues last season, Jones thrived in his final season with the Green Bay Packers. His eight designed runs over 15 yards don’t seem like a major upgrade, but he was also limited to 11 games due to injury. Jones also logged the highest success rate among running backs last season at 62 percent.

The Vikings have some questions up front but Jones is a back that can not only get the easy runs but take them for big gains. With this being the healthiest he’ll be all year, he’ll look to take advantage of a Giants defense that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game last season.

2. The Giants will sack Sam Darnold at least four times

One of the biggest challenges for the Vikings will be in the trenches. The Vikings return most of the same offensive line from a season ago, but that’s not a good thing when you consider what Minnesota is bringing back on the interior.

Ed Ingram cut his pressures by 33 percent from his rookie season, but he still wasn’t perfect at right guard, ranking 39th among 83 qualifying guards in overall PFF grade in 2023. Garrett Bradbury also ranked 20th among 37 qualifying centers with a 56.8 pass-blocking grade last season, and the Vikings will be breaking in a new left guard as Blake Brandel replaces Dalton Risner in the starting lineup.

This is not ideal going against a Giants defense that upgraded its pass rush after finishing 29th with 34 sacks and 18th with a 20.9 percent pressure rate last season. New York returns defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux this season but they also added a versatile chess piece in Brian Burns.

Lawrence ranked seventh last season with 65 total pressures, and while Thibodeaux and Burns didn’t have big pass-rushing numbers, their versatility could pose a big problem for a team that has an obvious weakness in the middle of their offensive line.

With the Vikings attempting to make Darnold as comfortable as possible, a strong pass rush could light those plans on fire, making Sunday the first big test for Minnesota’s offensive line.

3. Dallas Turner will notch three sacks in his NFL debut

While fans won’t be able to watch J.J. McCarthy this season, they’ll still be able to get their rookie fix in the form of Dallas Turner. The 17th overall pick in the draft, Turner was considered one of the best edge rushers from last year’s class and could be set up for a big debut against the Giants’ offensive line.

If you watched Hard Knocks last offseason, you know the Giants’ offensive line was a mess in 2023. Left tackle Andrew Thomas was a standout with just 17 pressures allowed last season, but New York had seven other players accumulate just 20 percent of the league snaps, and only one (Mark Glowinski) posted an overall PFF grade over 60.

The Giants threw money at the problem by signing Jon Runyan (22 pressures with Green Bay last season), Greg Van Roten (21 pressures with Las Vegas), and Jermaine Elumenor (28 pressures), but they still have a weak spot as John Michael Schmitz posted the lowest PFF overall grade among qualifying centers last season.

This gives Brian Flores an obvious spot to attack. While Ivan Pace and Blake Cashman have pass-rushing chops from the linebacker spots, the edge group that includes free agent signings Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard has the versatility Flores didn’t have a year ago.

This also includes Turner, who posted a 9.49 relative athletic score that is in the same neighborhood as Micah Parsons’ 9.59 RAS when he entered the league in 2021. We already saw what Turner is capable of when he had a pressure and a sack in the preseason opener against the Raiders, but Flores likely has more cooked up for Turner as the regular season begins.

This bodes well against Daniel Jones, who posted a league-low 35.2 passer rating when pressured last season. In a game that could be decided by defense, Turner can give them the edge and the win in their season opener.

Prediction: Vikings win 16-10

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