4 bold predictions for the Minnesota Vikings running backs in 2024

It wasn’t long ago that the Minnesota Vikings were a run-heavy team. The end of the Mike Zimmer era saw the Vikings display one of the NFL’s best rushing offenses but that success has disappeared under Kevin O’Connell.

In two seasons on the job, O’Connell’s offense has ranked 27th and 29th in rushing yards and 28th in rushing attempts. Part of the reason could be the Vikings’ tendency to fall behind in games, but the other half could be an inefficient approach spearheaded by Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison.

The Vikings have a new leader in the backfield after signing Aaron Jones this spring and there is optimism after a promising sophomore season from Ty Chandler. But what can we expect from Minnesota’s running game in 2024 and is it enough to get them back to their winning ways on the ground?

Bold predictions for the Minnesota Vikings running backs in 2024

1. Aaron Jones will play in no more than 13 games

Jones is a massive upgrade at the running back position. He had three 1,000-yard seasons from 2019 to 2022 and led the NFL in rushing with 411 yards over his final four games. With a 54.9 percent career success rate and an NFL-high 62 percent success rate last season, Jones is what the Vikings need, but he comes with a caveat.

Jones’s injury history is something to be leery of. Although he played all 17 games in 2022, he’s missed at least one game due to injury in five of his seven seasons with the Packers. He also played in a career-low 11 games last season due to hamstring and knee injuries and is entering his age 30 season.

Jones is still an effective back, but the cliff comes quickly for running backs (see Cook’s 2023 season). It will be the Vikings’ goal to keep Jones fresh throughout the season, which could mean a bigger role for the backs behind him on the depth chart.

2. Ty Chandler will have less rushing yards and touchdowns in 2024

Chandler is a fan favorite among Vikings fans, thanks to what he brings to the table. His 4.38-second time in the 40-yard dash stood out playing behind Mattison and he was impressive over the final four weeks with 258 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

But while some believe this could be a springboard for Chandler, there are still things to worry about. Chandler couldn’t crack the starting lineup until December even as Mattison had a historically bad season and there were little nuances such as his performance in pass protection and a success rate (45.1 percent) that was slightly better than Mattison (45 percent).

Chandler’s performance has drawn positive reviews during OTAs but it will be curious to see what happens when his number is called. With Jones’s injury history, Chandler will likely start at some point this season. But remaining in a reserve role, it’s hard to see him exceed the 461 yards and three touchdowns he had a year ago.

3. DeWayne McBride will be cut during training camp for the second time

Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah revealed the front office had a starting grade on McBride after taking him in the seventh round of the draft, but that potential doesn’t appear to be manifesting itself as he heads into his second season.

McBride’s first preseason was full of mistakes, and he couldn’t separate himself enough to earn a spot on the final roster. While running backs are known to come out of nowhere, the hype seems to have died heading into his second season, and he’s been buried on the depth chart with the acquisition of Jones.

4. The Vikings will remain in the bottom third of the NFL in rushing offense

This year will be the ultimate litmus test for O’Connell’s running attack. Jones is a former Pro Bowl running back who continues to show efficiency, and Chandler is a breakout candidate that could exceed everyone’s expectations.

But there’s a lot of factors going against this running game that may not be in their control. T.J. Hockenson will likely miss the start of the season as he recovers from a multi-ligament knee injury and the interior of the offensive line is unsettled as Blake Brandel, Dalton Risner and Ed Ingram battle for starts at guard and Garrett Bradbury returns at center.

Mix in O’Connell’s pass-heavy play-calling, and it's hard to see the opportunity for the Vikings' running game to have a major improvement. Jones and Chandler have the talent to prove that wrong, but the odds are against them in 2024.

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