The Minnesota Vikings are entering a new era at the quarterback position. Kirk Cousins is now a member of the Atlanta Falcons and the Vikings are hoping they’ve found their quarterback of the future in J.J. McCarthy.
But while many are bullish on McCarthy’s long-term upside, the Vikings still need a plan for the 2024 season. Sam Darnold is projected to be the Week 1 starter but Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall could also provide intrigue on the back end of the depth chart.
Put it all together and the Vikings quarterback room has the most uncertainty since Cousins arrived in 2018. But in this article, we’ll try to look into the future and give five bold predictions for Minnesota’s signal callers this season.
Bold predictions for the Minnesota Vikings quarterbacks in 2024
1. Sam Darnold will throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns
There’s no mistake about Darnold’s role with the Vikings. Darnold is set to come in, buy time, and try to keep the Vikings competitive to pave the way for McCarthy to start in 2025 at the absolute latest. But while some believe Darnold is a house of cards, there’s a chance he could be a formidable starter.
The Vikings have lauded their supporting cast as a reason they think they can develop a franchise quarterback. But while McCarthy will someday throw passes to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, Darnold will have the same cast at his disposal in 2024.
Darnold’s history as a former bust with the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers is also a concern, but Kevin O’Connell has done less with more. After leading Josh Dobbs to two victories when he didn’t know the playbook and helping Nick Mullens average 370 yards per start last season, Darnold has the physical tools to succeed.
Turnovers will be a problem – as evidenced by his career 4.1 percent turnover-worthy play rate – but even if he throws double-digit interceptions, he should have the volume and the weapons to put up Cousins numbers.
2. J.J. McCarthy will not start a game in 2024
The first thought that will cross the minds of Vikings fans if Darnold is successful is what will happen to McCarthy. Many could consider it a red flag if he can’t beat out Darnold in training camp, but it also could be part of O’Connell’s plan not to rush his development.
The Vikings successfully pulled off a “redshirt” season when Randall Cunningham and Jeff George started ahead of Daunte Culpepper in 1999, but their more recent projects have been thrown onto the field sooner than expected.
Instead of following the path of Tarvaris Jackson, Christian Ponder, and Teddy Bridgewater, the Vikings want to help McCarthy learn an offense that gave Cousins problems midway through his first season with O’Connell. While the door will be open for him to start at some point in 2024, having him learn from the sidelines is likely the Vikings’ “Plan A” this season.
3. Nick Mullens will start at least one game in 2024
While there’s a chance that McCarthy won’t start a game this season, Mullens might have slightly better odds, considering Darnold’s durability. In four years as a starter, Darnold didn’t start more than 13 games and has had injuries such as mononucleosis and three shoulder injuries.
In a perfect world, the Vikings would turn to McCarthy if anything happened to Darnold, but there’s a chance he might not be ready. With the tasks of learning new footwork and the playbook, it might be more appealing to turn to Mullens, who is a turnover machine but executed a game-winning drive against Las Vegas and gave the Vikings a chance to win an overtime game in Cincinnati last season.
Nobody is going to mistake Mullens for a franchise quarterback, but he at least be a last line of defense in the plan to develop McCarthy.
4. Jaren Hall will be cut after training camp
The Vikings will head into training camp with four quarterbacks and it’s likely someone will have to go by the time the calendar hits September. With Darnold and McCarthy entrenched in their roles, the training camp could come down to Mullens and Hall.
As a fifth-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Hall’s chances of becoming a starting quarterback were always a longshot. However, his learning curve was steeper than anticipated as he spent most of last season as the No. 3 quarterback. Desperation led to his first career start against the Green Bay Packers, and even then, Hall only lasted a quarter before he was benched for Mullens.
Hall is only in his second season, but at age 25, it’s fair to wonder how much upside he has. If the Vikings don’t see improvement, Hall could be released at the end of camp and stashed on the practice squad, assuming he clears waivers.
5. J.J. McCarthy will be the Vikings’ starter in 2025
To recap this article, we believe that Darnold will start the entire season, put up good numbers and Mullens will see the field before McCarthy does. If we went back to March and said all of this was going to come true, there would be a panic among Vikings fans as to what the future of the quarterback position looks like.
But these aren’t reasons to be McCarthy, who has already impressed in his short time in Minnesota. McCarthy has the big arm to make the throws O’Connell wants in his system, and his maturity has also been a key selling point as they get ready to make him the face of the franchise.
McCarthy’s time could come as soon as this year, but if it doesn’t, it could set him up for instant success next year. It worked for Culpepper, who led the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game in 2000 (don’t ask what happened in that game), and maybe lighting could strike twice for McCarthy.