Based on their performance in 2022, a recent trend in the NFL indicates that the Minnesota Vikings are unlikely to qualify for the 2023 playoffs.
Last season, the Minnesota Vikings played in 11 one-score games, and they earned a victory in each of these 11 matchups. In comparison, the Vikings played in 12 one-score contests in 2021, and they were only able to leave the field with a win in five of those games.
So the ball certainly bounced Minnesota's way a lot more last season than it did in 2021. Some of that can be attributed to luck (just ask Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen), but some of the Vikings' success in close games last season definitely had to do with the head-coaching switch from Mike Zimmer to Kevin O'Connell the franchise made during the 2022 offseason.
O'Connell was able to lead Minnesota to an impressive 13-4 record last season despite the team finishing with a negative point differential. Prior to the Vikings in 2022, no team in NFL history had won 13 or more games during the regular season while having a total point differential of less than zero.
Can the Minnesota Vikings defy the odds and make history in 2023?
According to 365scores.com's Scott Kacsmar, "the last 9 teams to make the playoffs with a negative scoring differential all failed to return to the playoffs the next year."
So heading into the upcoming season, the odds are already against Minnesota. It's highly unlikely that the Vikings will be able to duplicate their success in close games from 2022, but having O'Connell as their head coach should at least give them a better shot in close matchups than if Zimmer was still their head coach.
Kacsmar also revealed that in 2022, Kirk Cousins became "the 27th quarterback to have at least six game-winning drives in a regular season in NFL history." Of the previous 26 quarterbacks to accomplish this, 13 of them managed to lead their respective teams back to the playoffs in the following season.
Considering how many games Minnesota was able to win in 2022, them breaking the streak of negative point differential playoff teams missing the postseason during the following year seems believable.
The Vikings do have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this year, so earning a trip back to the playoffs was already going to be difficult. But who knew Minnesota was also going to have to battle against history in 2023?