J.J. McCarthy injury opens door for award-winning season from Sam Darnold

The Minnesota Vikings quarterback news that everyone kinda expected but was too scared to fully accept has finally arrived, as Sam Darnold is officially the team's QB1.

That's because J.J. McCarthy's knee soreness was actually a torn meniscus that required surgery. The question was always whether it was a trim, which would have let him return at some point this season, or a full repair, which would close the book on his rookie season. Now that we know McCarthy will miss the entire year, it's time to turn our attention to the Vikings' next new savior.

The bad news, of course, is that the Vikings will miss a crucial season's worth of McCarthy's development. But Darnold was brought in with the idea that he would, at the very least, start a good chunk of the year, so it's not like the team's immediate plans have changed a whole lot. And outside of that, now there's a good ("good") case to be made that the Vikings may have an award-winning QB in their starting lineup. I'm not coping; you're coping.

Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold now the favorite to win Most Improved Player of the Year award

Darnold's long had his ... enthusiastic? ... group of supporters. His highlight reel is about as impressive as any quarterback in the NFL, even if it only shows up 10 percent of the time. Still, his stats more-or-less speak for themself, and anyone who's spent a bunch of time watching Darnold isn't exactly surprised that he's now on his fourth team in seven seasons.

But that's all in the past. Now, Sam Darnold is ready to be *The* Most Improved Player of the Year. Never before has Darnold been QB1 in an offense with as many playmakers or one that's been as well-coached as the Vikings.

And the PFWA absolutely loves giving QBs that award: in the last 10 years, the award's gone to QBs six times (including Kirk Cousins!). If recent history's any indication, here's what – broadly speaking – an award-winning season would have to look like:

Baker Mayfield (2023): 64 percent completion rate, 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Geno Smith (2022): 70 percent completion rate, 4,284 yards, 30 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
Josh Allen (2020): 70 percent completion rate, 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Ryan Tannehill (2019): 70 percent completion rate, 2,742 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions
Jared Goff (2017): 62 percent completion rate, 3,804 yards, 28 touchdowns, seven interceptions

The bad news is that, as a starter in New York and Carolina, Darnold never came even remotely close to any of those numbers. So it's a big ask, albeit one that seems a little more realistic with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and that offensive line. The good news is that it's still early enough to convince ourselves that Sam Darnold, The Prince Who Was Promised, has arrived at last.

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