J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold as the Vikings QB in 2025? The answer is simple

Two games into his first season with the Minnesota Vikings and things are going just about as well as Sam Darnold had probably hoped when he signed with the franchise back in March.

Darnold has been given the keys to the car this year, but come 2025, the plan for the Vikings is to put J.J. McCarthy in the driver's seat. However, some have already begun to push back against this idea if Darnold continues to lead Minnesota on a path to success this season, including popular YouTuber and co-host of the "Bootleg Football" podcast Brett Kollmann, who recently shared the following in a post on his X account.

"Late night thought. Let’s say Darnold keeps this up all year, and he’s going to be a free agent in 2025.

Vikings have a lot of space. Offer him a two year, 50M deal with first year fully guaranteed (25) and a no trade clause to do right by him.

If he has another good year while McCarthy develops on the bench, you can flip him to whichever team Sam wants to go to that will give him real money. And if he doesn’t play as well in 2025, it’s cuttable anyway.

Works for the Vikings, gives Sam short term money, and potential for big time long term money if he pulls a Geno Smith arc on us."

There's only one scenario in which the Minnesota Vikings would keep Sam Darnold as their starting QB in 2025 over J.J. McCarthy

It's an interesting theory by Kollmann, but it's one that doesn't go along with anything that the Vikings have been doing in the last few months.

First, back in March, Minnesota moved on from Kirk Cousins after six seasons and signed Darnold to a one-year contract. The reasoning behind adding Darnold was, and always has been, that he was signed to be a bridge quarterback for the Vikings while they developed a rookie signal-caller.

A few weeks later, Minnesota selected that rookie quarterback when they used the No. 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on McCarthy. Prior to this year, the Vikings had never used a draft selection higher than pick No. 11 on a quarterback prospect.

Unfortunately, McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury during Minnesota's first 2024 preseason game. But now his entire rookie year with the Vikings can be focused on developing while Darnold goes out and holds his spot in the starting lineup.

If Minnesota does well this season, Kollmann suggests the team could re-sign Darnold to a two-year contract worth $50 million.

First off, in order for the Vikings to even consider re-signing Darnold in 2025, he would have to put together the type of turnaround season similar to what Baker Mayfield did with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023.

After Mayfield's performance last season, he was rewarded by the Bucs with a three-year extension worth $100 million. If Darnold performs similarly this season to what Mayfield did in 2023, then he's going to want to get paid similarly to what the Tampa Bay quarterback got earlier this year as well.

Mayfield's new contract has an average annual value of a little over $33 million. Let's then assume the salary cap increases again in 2025, and Darnold could potentially be looking for a new contract that pays him at least $35 million per year.

Is that something Minnesota would be interested in offering him? Of course not.

Part of the reason why the Vikings used their first-round pick on McCarthy this year was to take advantage of his affordable rookie contract. It's a formula that multiple teams have used in the recent past to transform into a top contender (see Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles).

If Minnesota brings Darnold back for 2025 and forces McCarthy to sit on the bench for another season, then that will prevent them from adding to other areas of the team's roster that are in need of improvement. The Vikings just went through this during their six years with Cousins, and it resulted in a single playoff win, so it wouldn't make sense to restart a similar cycle with Darnold.

The only way, the absolute only way in which it would make sense for Minnesota to re-sign Darnold in 2025 would be if he led the franchise to its first-ever Super Bowl win this season. If he does that, then the Vikings can go right ahead and give him whatever deal he wants.

But if we're being realistic, the chances of that happening this year are still pretty low, even with Minnesota and Darnold getting off to an impressive 2-0 start.

McCarthy taking over as the starting quarterback in 2025 still remains the plan for the Vikings, so let's just enjoy watching Darnold continue to turn his NFL career around instead of creating scenarios for him that have almost no chance of turning into a reality.

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