Should the Vikings pursue Colts RB Jonathan Taylor?

The annual “who will blink first” contract squabble between an NFL owner and one of his players is currently taking place in Indianapolis. Colts owner Jim Irsay has given running back Jonathan Taylor until August 29th to seek a trade partner. After the Minnesota Vikings let Dalvin Cook walk, should the team be interested in trying to trade for Taylor?

At the end of July, Taylor spoke with Irsay about a long-term extension, hoping to get a jump on discussions that would have taken place next year when Taylor officially becomes a free agent. Irsay told Taylor no and then told the media, “We’re not trading Jonathan… end of discussion. Not now and not in October!” according to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer.

In fact, Irsay doubled down and made the following comment.

"If I die tonight and Jonathan Taylor is out of the league, no one’s gonna miss us. The league goes on. We know that. The National Football [League] rolls on. It doesn’t matter who comes and who goes, and it’s a privilege to be a part of it.”

That statement stoked Taylor’s fire even more, and he pressed the issue, saying he wants to be paid like the top backs in the league. Irsay then backed off on his comment and tried to save face. The backtrack didn’t work, and the two seemed even further apart than before Irsay’s first comment.

On August 21, it was reported by ESPN’s Stephen Holder that Irsay was willing to trade Taylor as long as he received a first-round pick in return or “multiple picks with value equivalent to that of a first-rounder.” 

Those requests aren’t likely to happen as Taylor is coming off a 2022 season in which he missed six games due to various ankle injuries. Also, given the lack of faith by owners in running backs, Irsay’s compensation demands are absurd.

Given all this information, should the Vikings jump into the fray and pursue Taylor?

With Cook no longer toting the rock in a purple jersey, the rushing load in 2023 falls to fifth-year veteran Alexander Mattison. So far in his career, Mattison has started six total games and rushed for 1,670 yards and 11 touchdowns, along with catching 70 balls for 526 yards and three more scores.

Although he has shown solid flashes of ability, Mattison is still a huge question mark as an NFL starter. Furthermore, his backups, including Kene Nwangwu and Ty Chandler, aren’t ready to be starters.

If something happens to Mattison, or he doesn’t pan out, Minnesota becomes a one-dimensional team that defenses can plan for. Perhaps it's not a bad idea to strongly consider trading for Taylor. A veteran back like Taylor, with Mattison getting touches here and there, gives the Vikings a better run-game option.

As several league general managers and team executives have noted recently, Irsay won’t get a first-round return for Taylor. The feedback from the execs has been anywhere from second to fifth-round compensation. Also, Taylor won’t get Christian McCaffrey money ( $16 million per year as the highest paid back) or even Nick Chubb money (fourth highest paid back at $12.2 million per year) because of his injuries last year and only having three years worth of stats to look at.

However, in the first two years of his NFL career, Taylor rushed for over 1,000 yards in both seasons and led the league in rushing in 2021 with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns. He also snagged 40 receptions for 360 yards and two more scores that year. His three-year totals so far are 3,841 yards and 33 rushing touchdowns. in

When examining the list of the other highest-paid running backs in the league, Green Bay’s Aaron Jones (fifth on the list at $11.5 million per year) has 5,284 yards and 43 touchdowns in six seasons. The Giants Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard of the Cowboys, and Josh Jacobs of the Raiders are all tied for sixth on the list with $10.09 million per year. 

Barkley’s career consists of 4,249 yards and 29 touchdowns in five seasons (he missed all but two games in 2020 due to injury). Pollard has played four years and only had his first 1,000-yard season in 2022 (2,616 yards and 17 touchdowns total). Jacobs has 4,740 yards and 40 touchdowns in a four-year career. He also led the NFL in rushing yards in 2022. Behind those three runners is Arizona’s James Connor, who gets paid $7 million per year. Connor has never cracked 1,000 yards in his six seasons.

What this means is that Taylor is more likely comparable to Barkley, Pollard, and Jacobs. If he stuck around for another year in Indy, he might have busted loose for another 1,000+ yard season and had more evidence to back up his claim of being one of the best backs in the NFL. There’s no doubt that Taylor is a scary good back, but he hasn’t yet consistently proven that he is in the upper echelon.

Minnesota should seek a trade but only offer a third-round pick in return, with that pick becoming a second-rounder should Taylor reach specific 2023 numbers. Also, given the Vikings cap space, offering Taylor a three-year contract in the range of $10-$11 million per year would be fair. This at least gets Taylor in the top 10 of the league’s highest-paid running backs.