What history says about the Vikings projected win total for 2024

Given their struggles in 2023 and all of the notable roster changes they've made in the last few months, many oddsmakers currently have the Minnesota Vikings projected win total for the 2024 season set at 6.5.

That projected win total is not only the lowest for the Vikings since they hired Kevin O'Connell to be the franchise's new head coach in 2022, but it's also their lowest in 10 years.

Prior to Minnesota's first season with Mike Zimmer as its head coach in 2014, oddsmakers set the team's projected win total at 6.0, according to data from Pro-Football-Reference.com.

How accurate will the Minnesota Vikings projected win total for 2024 turn out to be?

As it was previously mentioned, the Vikings projected win total for the upcoming 2024 season has been set at 6.5. This is just the fourth time since 2000 that Minnesota has had a projected win total of 6.5 wins or fewer.

Listed below is a recap of how the Vikings ended up performing during the three most recent seasons in which they began their schedule with a projected win total of 6.5 or fewer.

2014

Projected Win Total: 6.0
Final 2014 Record: 7-9

2012

Projected Win Total: 6.0
Final 2012 Record: 10-6 (made the playoffs)

2007

Projected Win Total: 6.5
Final 2012 Record: 8-8

So, in each of these three seasons, Minnesota managed to finish with more than its projected win total. And, in 2012, the Vikings even found a way to sneak into the playoffs (thanks mostly to Adrian Peterson's insane MVP performance).

This data is just more proof that Minnesota probably isn't going to be among the worst teams in the NFL during the upcoming season. The Vikings might still miss the playoffs in 2024, but they're unlikely to be a team that their opponents can circle on their schedules as an easy victory.

Minnesota has finished with seven wins or more in each of its last 10 seasons, and unless things just take a turn for the absolute worst, it's hard to believe that they won't accomplish this feat again in 2024.

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