What the Vikings can realistically expect from Sam Darnold in 2024

As long as he can stay healthy, it’s safe to assume Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is in for a career year under head coach Kevin O’Connell. What exactly will this career year look like?

The former USC Trojan has never played in more than 13 games in a single season. That should change in 2024, so expect Darnold to play at least 15 to 16 games this season.

With Nick Mullins as Minnesota's primary backup and newly signed Brett Rypien as the third quarterback, it’s more than likely, barring a total collapse, that Darnold is going to be the Vikings' guy under center for the vast majority of the 2024 campaign.

What can the Minnesota Vikings expect from Sam Darnold in the 2024 NFL season?

During Darnold’s rocky NFL career, he has never thrown for more than 3,024 yards in a single season. Based on the expectation that he will be on the field for 17 games this year, Darnold should be able to throw for at least 3,800 yards in 2024.

There is no doubt that a team having Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as its primary receiving options should mean its quarterback will throw for well over the 4,000-yard mark.

But when one factors in what we have seen from Darnold in his first six seasons, it is hard to envision him suddenly becoming a top 10 or 11 NFL quarterback in terms of passing yards. In 2023, only 10 quarterbacks around the league threw for at least 4,000 yards.

In 2019, Sam Darnold set his career high in touchdown passes with 19. He should be able to surpass that total this season. A realistic number for Darnold is likely around 23 to 24 passing touchdowns this year, considering who he gets to throw to.

When watching Mullens play in 2023, one could tell that O’Connell allows his quarterbacks to be very aggressive when attacking opposing defenses. Don’t expect that to change in 2024, but the only problem is that Darnold’s decision-making has been a big concern throughout his career

It is fair to assume Darnold could very well be toward the top of the league in interceptions for 2024. Current Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Howell led the league in interceptions in 2023 with 21, and that seems like a very steep number for a Kevin O’Connell-coached signal-caller to end up with. Realistically, around 13 or 14 interceptions are fair to expect from Darnold this year.

Former Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has always been one of the more accurate passers in the NFL. In 2024, Minnesota fans will need to get used to a quarterback who has historically been average when it comes to completion percentage.

Darnold’s 61.9 percent completion rate in 2019 is his single-season career-best, and throughout his time in the league, he's typically completed around 58 to 60 percent of his passes.

A realistic expectation for Darnold’s completion percentage in 2024 would likely be around 62 to 63 percent, which is still below 2023’s league average of 64.5 percent.

For the 2024 Vikings, they need to squeeze every last ounce of talent out of Darnold if they want to be playing meaningful games in December and January.

Sam Darnold’s Final 2024 Stat Predictions

- 17 games
- 62.4 completion percentage
- 3,822 passing yards
- 24 touchdown
- 14 interceptions

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