It has been more than a decade since the Minnesota Vikings last earned a playoff berth in two straight seasons. If a recent prediction comes true, J.J. McCarthy will become the first Vikings quarterback to lead the team to back-to-back postseason appearances since Brett Favre in 2009.
On Thursday, Sports Illustrated's Connor Orr shared his annual predictions for all 272 NFL games in the upcoming regular season, and for Minnesota, he has them making the playoffs as a wild-card team with a 10-7 record.
Unsurprisingly, Orr explained that his Vikings prediction has a lot to do with the uncertainty surrounding how McCarthy will perform in 2025 in his first season as the team's starting signal-caller.
"Arguably the most difficult projection, the Vikings are coming off a 14-win season and are replacing a veteran in Sam Darnold with J.J. McCarthy, who is essentially a rookie. McCarthy could—and should, ultimately—be better than Darnold. But is he now?
The Vikings were also buoyed last season by a generationally good defense. Those are also hard to sustain, even though DC Brian Flores is in a renaissance period in terms of creativity. So, when in doubt, try to hit it down the fairway.
I have Minnesota losing some games for very specific reasons, like in Chicago because of the new regime energy at Soldier Field in the opener, or Pittsburgh, with T.J. Watt cooking against a young passer.
These added up and, while I’m sure Vikings fans aren’t going to be pleased, the season has to be uneven to reflect the unevenness of the young starting QB."
Sports Illustrated's 2025 record prediction for Minnesota Vikings is realistic
At first glance, a 10-7 finish in the regular season and wild-card spot might seem like a disappointment for a Minnesota team that finished with 14 wins in 2024. However, the prediction is likely more realistic than most Vikings fans would probably like to admit.
While it's great to feel optimistic about McCarthy in his first season as Minnesota's starting quarterback, there's a good chance that he's going to have some moments or stretches during the 2025 campaign that remind everyone about his lack of on-field NFL experience.
Compared to 2024, the Vikings also have a much tougher schedule, so that has to be factored in. It would be incredible if Minnesota could win 14 or more games again this year, but that shouldn't be the expectation for a team with a young quarterback in his first year as a starter.
At the same time, if all goes well with the pieces the Vikings added to their offensive and defensive lines this offseason, the defense continues to play at an elite level, and Justin Jefferson is his normal, unstoppable self, then McCarthy just playing average could potentially result in the team winning 12 or 13 games in 2025.
Week 1 against the Chicago Bears can't come soon enough for Minnesota so we can finally see what this year's team is truly capable of accomplishing.