The Minnesota Vikings have been riding Sam Darnold’s comeback season to return to the playoffs in 2024 but the latest projection by Spotrac shows it’s getting increasingly difficult to bring him back in 2025.
Spotrac has estimated Darnold’s value around $35 million for most of the 2024 season but the latest update has seen that figure spike to $54.7 million.
The number is also reflected in the latest contract projection for Darnold, which has swelled to four years and $218.6 million, meaning the 27-year-old is set to cash in if he reaches free agency next spring.
Minnesota Vikings will likely use the franchise tag on Sam Darnold in 2025
Darnold’s situation is similar to the one the Vikings faced with Kirk Cousins a year ago. Cousins threw for 4,000 yards four times and 30 or more touchdowns three times during his six seasons in Minnesota and tried to use his track record to secure a final contract with the Vikings.
The strategy paid off but not with the Vikings. Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota signed Darnold to a one-year, $10 million contract to succeed him.
The gamble has worked for the Vikings as Darnold took off to throw for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Minnesota also posted its second-best record in franchise history at 14-3 and a deep playoff run could help Darnold increase his value heading into the offseason.
But before the Vikings hand Darnold a blank check, there are some factors to consider. One of the reasons the Vikings have succeeded this season is using the money they didn’t spend on Cousins to acquire Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, and Aaron Jones in free agency.
With $71.3 million in cap space next season, the Vikings can use that strategy again to build around rookie J.J. McCarthy and create a better infrastructure next season.
It’s also a good idea considering the Falcons benched Cousins for rookie Michael Penix Jr. and probably regret signing a 37-year-old coming off a torn Achilles. While they can use Penix’s rookie scale contract next season, they’ll also have to navigate $40 million in dead money when they cut Cousins as a post-June 1 cut next year, making it difficult to build a contender around him.
In the end, Darnold’s latest projection means the Vikings will use the franchise tag. Over The Cap currently projects the tag to cost $41.3 million for quarterbacks next season and it gives the Vikings another short-term option in case Darnold regresses or McCarthy is ready to become the starter.
It also allows the Vikings to trade Darnold to a quarterback-needy team and get something in return but it hasn’t been done since the New England Patriots traded Matt Cassel to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2009. The Patriots also sent linebacker Mike Vrabel in that trade in exchange for the 34th overall pick (Patrick Chung) in the 2009 draft and Cassel received a six-year, $62.7 million contract extension.
Whatever the Vikings decide, Spotrac’s projection indicates Darnold is going to get paid this offseason. It’s just a matter of which team decides to do it and if the Vikings will get anything in return.