Mike Zimmer Should Have Rolled the Dice On Onside Kick

The Vikings fell short in their comeback attempt against the Packers yesterday, losing 24-21 despite a valiant fourth quarter effort.

More from Minnesota Vikings News

• Former Vikings first-round pick could reportedly return to NFC North
• Bears analyst has extremely embarrassing Kirk Cousins take
• 6 Vikings who (maybe) won’t make the 53-man roster in 2023
• Predicting what the Vikings will do in the 2023 NFL Draft based on 2022
• Vikings have reportedly begun extension talks with T.J. Hockenson

As always happens with losses, especially close ones, we’re left with plenty of stuff to pick apart, plenty of decisions to second-guess.

One big Mike Zimmer call that’s going to be second-guessed until the cows come home is his decision to not go for an onside kick after the TD and two-point conversion to get the deficit back to three with time running out.

In many people’s minds, the decision to go for the onside kick was made easier by a fifteen yard roughing the passer penalty against the Packers that allowed the Vikes to kick off from their own 50.

The thinking there is that, when kicking from your 50, even if the Packers recover the onside kick they won’t yet be in field goal range and if you can stop them you still get the ball back facing only a 3 point deficit.

Zimmer instead decided to kick it deep and let his defense try to stop Green Bay. The Vikings had only three chances to stop the clock at that point, two time outs and the two minute warning.

The Vikings defense, which had been good all day, was unable to stop the Packers and Eddie Lacy from getting first downs and bleeding the clock.

Defenders of Zimmer will point out that when the ball was kicked back to Green Bay there was still over 3 minutes left on the clock and the Vikings still had two time outs. That is enough time to get the ball back and score provided you can get stops.

But Zimmer himself admitted after the game that he should have rolled the dice on the onside kick regardless (via Star Tribune).

"“I figured they were going to run the ball three times, and I figured we could stop them,” Zimmer said. “I was trying to pin it down in there, and I don’t know … hindsight.”"

Zimmer cited the fear of Green Bay kicking a field goal to make it a six point game as a reason to not go for the onside kick. Again, kicking off from the 50 lessens that danger.

If you do onside kick it and they get it back, and are able to get a couple first downs and get within reasonable field goal range, then they will already have likely run off enough clock to end the game anyway.

The onside kick there is somewhat of a gamble but it’s a good gamble, and it’s a gamble Zimmer obviously thinks he should have taken.

Zimmer’s decision to go safe and conservative there is somewhat puzzling in light of a couple earlier game decisions that showed him more in gambler mode.

The Vikings were trailing 7-0 early in the second when they faced a 4th-and-1 on the Green Bay 25. Under most circumstances you would kick the chip shot field goal and at least get points, but Zimmer left his offense in the game and was rewarded when Jerick McKinnon converted with a one yard run.

That decision led directly to Teddy Bridgewater’s first TD pass of the day, a 22-yard strike to Charles Johnson to tie the game at seven.

Zimmer’s willingness to press the issue paid off there, but it would come back to bite him in the second half.

The Vikings were down 17-13 early in the 4th and needed to stop the Packers from scoring again. Green Bay had the ball 3rd-and-6 on their own 44. If the Vikings could force the punt, they would have a good chance to mount a 4th quarter comeback and steal the win.

Zimmer decided to let it roll again by dialing up a blitz against Aaron Rodgers. The combination of blitzing linebackers clearing the middle of the field and manned-up corners turning their backs to the line would open up a huge running lane for Rodgers, but Zimmer was counting on his guys getting to the QB before he had a chance to break the pocket.

Rodgers unfortunately would evade the rushing linebackers and break into the open field, running out of bounds after an 18-yard first down scramble. That play would lead to a Packers TD on a shovel pass to Eddie Lacy, putting the Vikings down two scores with less than 9 minutes left in the game.

Two instances of Zimmer showing a willingness to gamble, two different outcomes. How would the game’s ultimate outcome have differed had Zimmer rolled the dice a third time on an onside kick? We’ll never know, but it’s a gamble I wish Zimmer had taken.

And Zimmer apparently wishes he had taken it too.